H-1B Visa Shake-Up: How Team Trump's Wage Policy May Affect Indians

The Donald Trump administration in the United States is considering replacing the traditional H-1B visa lottery with a wage-based selection system. The White House's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs has adopted a proposed regulation that could revive an attempt by the first Trump administration to base the selection of H-1B petitions on applicants' earnings rather than the existing random lottery system, per a report by Bloomberg Law. 

The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs cleared the rule overhauling the allocation of H-1B visas for speciality occupation workers on August 8. The move, part of the Trump administration's 'Buy American and Hire American' policy, is expected to affect thousands of international students and recent graduates, including Indians, seeking future career prospects in America. 

What's The Current Rule

H-1B, a non-immigrant visa, allows US companies to employ foreign workers in specialised occupations that require theoretical or technical expertise. It permits technical workers from abroad to work in the US for three-year periods.

Currently, the H-1B program, which is heavily used by the tech sector employees, is limited to 85,000 slots annually. Every year in the spring, a random lottery process shortlists a capped number of employers who can move forward with petitions, providing a level playing field for new graduates and experienced professionals alike.

Team Trump's Proposal

In 2021, during Donald Trump's first term as US President, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) attempted to switch the H-1B visa allocation from a random selection procedure to a wage-priority approach. It recommended allocating H-1B visas based on earnings, divided into four tiers, to prioritise higher-paying positions.

At the time, the Trump administration had argued that the change would push businesses to hire more high-skilled foreign workers. 

But the move was opposed by business and immigration groups, who highlighted that it would restrict the number of eligible H-1B workers. 
The proposal was later withdrawn by President Joe Biden's administration. Federal courts also blocked regulations to raise the prevailing wage floors and limit qualifying positions for H-1B workers.

What Can Change Under The New Plan

Although the US Citizenship and Immigration Services hasn't shared information about the regulation, if the new rule is accepted, it could pose challenges for entry-level international students.

Students and new graduates, who are just starting their careers, often accept lower salaries, especially in non-STEM fields, and competitive sectors and startups, where budgets may be tight. Under the wage-based system, such candidates might get pushed to the bottom of the selection queue or even excluded, regardless of their qualifications or potential.

Trump has frequently decried the H-1B program, saying it was abused by US employers by bringing in lower-paid foreign workers at the detriment of American workers, especially in the technology sector.

How The Move Can Affect Indians

Indian nationals dominate the programme, receiving 72 per cent of H-1B visas, followed by 12 per cent for Chinese citizens. Per 2023 data, the majority of H-1B visa holders work in STEM fields like data science, AI, machine learning, and cybersecurity, with 65 per cent in computer-related jobs. Their median annual salary was (about Rs 1.01 crore) annually.

If the move is implemented, it could disproportionately affect Indian students and new graduates from certain disciplines and non-STEM fields, where starting salaries tend to be lower.