The global order is fracturing, institutions are faltering, and middle powers are stepping up. That was the message from Foreign Policy's Ravi Agrawal and Financial Times' Martin Wolf, speaking to Rahul Kanwal, CEO and Editor-in-Chief of NDTV, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.
Agrawal didn't hesitate to define the moment. "We are in a world disorder," he said, arguing that the United States is retreating from the very global structure it once built. "The world will move on. There is no new Biden coming. You can't keep returning a Trumpian figure to power and pretend this isn't who America is. We've seen it twice."
In place of global leadership, Agrawal said, the U.S. and Israel are working around the United Nations, which he called "paralysed, horribly divided and feckless, vote after vote on Gaza goes nowhere." He dismissed Trump's new "Board of Peace" as little more than diplomatic theater.
"Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Hungary, these aren't liberal democracies. Putin was asked to join. It's a joke. Someone accused of war crimes joining a peace board tells you everything about the farce we're in."
Wolf pointed to the surreal nature of today's geopolitics. "Last week we were going to have a war between the U.S. and NATO over Greenland. Yesterday, we weren't. There's no historical parallel, I can't make sense of it," he said.
Despite the chaos, Wolf noted the world economy continues to grow. "The IMF just raised forecasts. Aggregate GDP is moving as expected. In many cases, Trump's bite has been less fierce than his bark, including on tariffs. What he promised on 'liberation day' isn't where he's ended up."
Wolf warned of lingering risks: inflation, high rates, and a possible dollar shock. "Trump backs down when he meets real resistance, whether from China, Europe, or markets. He's a bully, but economic realities matter."
Agrawal highlighted India's steady strategy in contrast. "India's not putting all its eggs in one basket. It's doing the right thing, pursuing trade deals with the EU, UAE, and others. It's diversifying defense too. This is the model middle powers are following to restore some order in a messy world."
Wolf agreed the past won't return. "Pre-Trump America isn't coming back. Too much damage has been done."
