Opinion | To Survive Trump, India Needs More Than Just Handshakes With Xi And Putin

US President Donald Trump's tariff ‘punishment' meted out to India has been hailed as both a wake-up call and an opportunity by economists and geopolitical observers in India and abroad. Altering global trade dynamics by compelling nations like India to not just recalibrate their external relationships but also think deeper about internal reforms, this tariff regime is here to stay. 

Until Trump changes his mind once again. 

The populist president of the United States is currently wielding tariffs both as a trade protectionist measure and a tool of economic diplomacy. Any response by an affected country needs a similar two-pronged approach. India's response so far has been an assertion of its strategic autonomy by refusing to make any trade deal with the US under duress. It has also signalled through an uninhibited outreach to Russia and China through bilateral visits as well as multilateral fora, such as the recently concluded SCO summit.

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Baggage Of The Past

A lot is being suggested at home and in the world by referencing the visuals of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. While Modi and Putin have been consistent in exuding the warmth of close ties, the iciness of the Modi-Xi relationship in the aftermath of the Doklam and Galwan crises has not yet been forgotten. In that sense, the timing of the SCO summit is significant for India. New Delhi has been able to signal that it cares for old allies and is willing to turn a page with old adversaries.

PM Modi deserves accolades for handling the China issue - multiple issues rolled into one - with quiet pragmatism in the past decade. Despite cornering by the Opposition, belligerent voices within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and a growing chorus of revenge among its voter base, the government did not bite the bait of battle. A full-blown war with China would have been hazardous, pushing India's economic development behind by years if not decades.

What Being A World Power Really Means

And this quietness is the biggest lesson to be learnt amidst the current geopolitical fracas. India needs to take a hard look inward to see whether it staked the claim to the world power status a bit prematurely. From the Nehruvian belief in India's civilisational greatness to Vajpayee's India Shining to the current Vishwaguru narrative, most Indians have grown up on a steady dose of grandiloquence. That we are unique and powerful is not up for any debate; we are only lagging because of a grand international conspiracy.

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The imposition of US tariffs ought to engender a discourse on what India's proclaimed greatness is worth if its vulnerability of relying heavily on a single global trade partner can be exploited so easily. India's pivot away from the US to China will pose the same risk. With US tariffs, India has lost access to the wealthiest market in the world. China cannot replace that. Additionally, the existing asymmetry in India-China trade relations cannot be wished away to make way for a strategic alliance against the US. Russia, war-worn and politically embattled, cannot offer the Indian economy the boost it needs. Beyond supplying cheaper crude oil and partially fulfilling India's defence equipment demands, Moscow's cooperation means precious little. 

An Inward Journey

Does it mean that the US is destined to remain the global Big Brother, leaving little to no elbow space for economic and geopolitical realignments for India? Certainly not. Superpowers come and go, empires are built and destroyed. However, the destroyers of old empires and disruptors of the world order are usually strengthened from within before they embark on external conquests.

Yes, the United States is in the throes of an unprecedented collapse of institutions. Education and research institutions, for example, where the US hegemony was hitherto unchallenged, are getting systematically undermined by the Trump administration. It is an opportunity. But can India rise to the occasion, with its dilapidated education infrastructure and unwieldy demographic strain? The din of geopolitical discourse drowns the fact that before China expanded its circle of influence, it invested its resources and attention to nurture an ecosystem of innovation-fuelled progress. Battle-ravaged Germany and Japan revitalised their social indices first before becoming global superpowers.

More Than Just Smiles

Global allies are important, but their absence does not stop a sovereign nation from fixing the potholes on roads or ensuring children do not die of malnutrition. It is time India fixed its priority list and embarked on a journey of reforms with quiet dignity. Effective diplomacy is the function of an agile economy matched with the clarity of strategic vision. The resilience of the Indian economy will outlast Trump's tariff agenda; to survive and flourish beyond that, however, will need more than friendship with Xi and Putin.  

(Nishtha Gautam is a Delhi-based author and academic)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author