In the aftermath of the terror attack on civilians in Pahalgam, Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiankun commented that Beijing firmly opposes all forms of terrorism. And yet, China's posturing around the state of India-Pakistan relations has largely stuck to three assertions, which express its implicit support for Pakistan's position.
The first is that China believes the incident was a result of unknown but positively local gunmen "shooting" civilians. This is evident from coverage on two of China's largest and most popular media platforms, Xinhua and CCTV, both owned and operated by the Chinese party-state. The only way Chinese articulation differs from that of Pakistan, in this regard, is that popular coverage has referred to the location of the incident as "India-controlled" or "India-administered" Kashmir, as opposed to Islamabad, which refers to it as "Indian illegally-occupied Kashmir".
'Avoid Premature Conclusions'
This approach undermines the idea that the incident was an act of terror, and pushes aside Indian concerns surrounding infiltration of Pakistani state-sponsored terrorists into Kashmir. In fact, coverage in leading Chinese state-owned media platforms such as the Global Times is fodder to the authenticity of The Resistance Front (TRF)'s rather hasty withdrawal, wherein the terror group attributed its statement claiming responsibility for the attack to a cyber intrusion. On this account, the platform urged India to act "rationally" and "avoid premature conclusions". To an informed audience, this is a blatant disregard for the history and context of Pakistani state-sponsored terrorism on Indian soil.
The second assertion is that China formally hopes for both India and Pakistan to move toward a peaceful resolution of the dispute and accept bilateral negotiations as the way forward. This was notably emphasised by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a phone call with his Pakistani counterpart, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, on April 27. Further, the sentiment was reiterated by Guo Jiankun in his regular press conference on April 28, where he stated that "as a common neighbour of both India and Pakistan, China hopes the two sides will exercise restraint, move toward each other, and properly handle their differences through dialogue and consultation".
Mediation Or Interference?
There is some support for this position in scholarly circles. For example, Wang Shida, an Executive Director at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (a Chinese Ministry of State Security institution), argued in an opinion piece for Huanqiu (Global Times Chinese) that because India and Pakistan have a long way to go in terms of economic development, the two should focus on quickly resolving the dispute and moving on to their developmental agendas.
What is also interesting, however, is that the proposal for de-escalation doesn't exactly seem to be motivated by a desire for peace. It rather comes across from commentaries in Chinese media about how analysts believe India doesn't have the capability to engage in and win a hot war on Kashmir with Pakistan, and that it will derail its goals and ambitions if it attempts to do so. Scholars like Wang put it more subtly, in that he says in his opinion piece, "If the situation in Kashmir further escalates - or even 'explodes' - it would clearly not serve India's fundamental interests."
Other commentators, such as Gu Huoping (a pen name for an account that frequently writes on military affairs concerning China), argue that in the face of India's aggressive posture, Pakistan is right to not back down. In fact, in a recent article for the Chinese media platform NetEase, Gu opines that a hot war may be a test of all the 'Made in China' defence products the Pakistan armed forces are heavily reliant on. Using examples of India's retreat in the 1962 war with China, and by misleadingly arguing that India has not held a clear advantage in its historic wars with Pakistan, Gu attempts to propagate the idea that it's best for Delhi to back off.
How China Is Undermining India
Another angle that ties into this narrative on negotiation as the way forward, is Beijing's willingness to play mediator. In his April 28 remarks, Guo Jiankun also stated, "China welcomes all measures conducive to de-escalating the current situation and supports the early launch of a fair investigation." Interestingly, this statement was made in response to a question posed by a journalist of the RIA Novosti, a Russian state-owned media agency, based on the platform's recent interview with Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Asif. In this interview, Asif said that he would find an international intervention by Russia, China, or any Western countries highly useful to figure out who was behind the incident, and added that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif supported this proposal.
Naturally, Beijing seems to believe that it could be the right actor to enable a de-escalation of the situation, including by supporting the launch of a "fair and swift" investigation. In fact, the coverage of Guo's statements rarely acknowledges that Asif also called on other actors, including countries in the West, to support an international investigation. If one further looks at the Chinese transcript of Wang Yi's phone call with Dar, Wang vouches for Pakistan's sovereignty and "legitimate security concerns", while again calling for an "impartial investigation". By consistently iterating its ability to bring peace, Beijing is inadvertently supporting Pakistan's internationalisation of what is clearly a bilateral issue, and undermining India's opposition to global mediation.
What China Said For Pulwama
It is important to note here that China's official rhetoric surrounding negotiation and mediation to resolve India and Pakistan's differences is not new. Similar statements were presented by the Foreign Ministry to respond to the Jaish-e-Mohammed attack in Pulwama in February 2019. Even then, spokesperson Geng Shuang had refused to acknowledge Pakistani involvement, arguing that India's naming of the terror group responsible for the attack does not indicate a confirmed judgment; this is likely to remain a rhetorical trend in China's posturing vis-à-vis India-Pak tensions.
Third and final is the Chinese emphasis on the immorality and futility of India's punitive measures against Pakistan. Some of this is reflected in the writings of commentators of Gu Huoping on the resilience of Pakistan's China-backed armed forces in the face of Indian resolve. On a more nuanced level, the rhetoric emerging out of Beijing is focused on opposing everything, from India's decision to shut off its airspace to Pakistani aircraft, to its move to hold the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance.
For example, a recent commentary on Sohu, a Chinese internet media and online search company, glorifies Pakistan's retaliatory decision to shut off its airspace to Indian aircraft and halt bilateral trade as a landmark response to India's punitive measures. The commentary is authored by a popular analyst going by the name 'Global Defense Focus' and has over 720 million reads. Similarly, on the issue of India's "threat" to stop Pakistan's water supply, a recent article on Guancha highlights support for Islamabad's claims that India has caused moderate flooding in several low-lying areas in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Such rhetoric clearly ignores meteorological facts. Even if there are higher levels of waterflow recorded in Jhelum in the past few days, it is likely a result of seasonal melting of glaciers - something the Lahore Flood Forecasting Division itself warned residents of on April 18.
The CPEC Angle
Another angle to explain why Chinese narratives have specifically de-legitimised India's countermeasures is that they potentially impact China's interests in Pakistan. Comments on the incident by popular analyst Liu Zongyi, Director of the South Asia Research Center at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (a government-affiliated think tank), inform readers that Beijing may be concerned about implications for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In fact, to further the cause of de-escalation and for Pakistan's own "security interests", he pointed out that Pakistan accuses India of supporting separatist and extremist groups inside Pakistan and Afghanistan - groups that threaten Pakistan's internal security and disrupt CPEC.
In this regard, even as Beijing's official rhetoric has been relatively mild and vague, the societal and analytical support for the strategic convergence between China and Pakistan is clearly evident. At a time when India-Pakistan relations are witnessing an intense shake-up, China is likely to sustain its posturing, including through proposals to mediate in the name of regional stability. From the Indian perspective, it is vital to assess how best to counter such narratives.
(Anushka Saxena is a China Studies Research Analyst with the Takshashila Institution's Indo-Pacific Studies Programme)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
