Operation Sindoor has irrevocably reset the rules of engagement between India and Pakistan for cross-border terror. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, it "has set up a new parameter and a new normal".
The Burden Of Proof
Firstly, the international community has always put the onus on India to prove, in each and every case, that not only did the terrorists come from Pakistan but that they were also sponsored by the Pakistani establishment. Such questions were raised even when India suffered a series of terror attacks from Pakistan, including the attacks in Mumbai in 2008, where one of the perpetrators, Ajmal Kasab, was caught and Pakistan's direct complicity stood exposed. It is ironic that when non-state actors such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or Houthis in Yemen attack Israel, the country targeted by the latter and the US is Iran, since the default presumption is that these groups are its proxies. Whereas here, even though India has a neighbour training and sponsoring terrorists to cross into India through a shared physical border, the world refuses to make that presumption and continues to ask India for proof.
It was the same story when the Pahalgam terror attack happened in April this year. The international community kept asking India for proof and refused to demand accountability or action from Pakistan against its terrorists. They went one step further and asked both countries to "de-escalate", as if India had escalated the situation. Even the fact that Pakistani army officers participated in the funeral given to terrorists killed by Indian strikes on terror camps did not cause a ripple in the international community. They ignored this as if it had never happened.
Operation Sindoor has called all this bluff and put the onus entirely on Pakistan to prove that they did not undertake the terror attack. Any terror attack will now be presumed to have been sponsored by the Pakistani establishment - more specifically, by the Pakistani army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). As the Prime Minister said, India "will not differentiate between the government sponsoring terrorism and the masterminds of terrorism". India has left them with no scope for deniability. This is the first new normal.
Shifting Responsibility To Pakistan
Secondly, by shifting the presumption on Pakistan, India has also placed upon it the responsibility of stopping the harbouring, training, sponsoring and commission of acts of cross-border terror. It is no more only India that is responsible for fighting terror on its soil - it is equally incumbent on Pakistan to see that its soil is not used to export terror. Pushing terrorists across the border when the snow melts is no longer an option for Pakistan without serious repercussions and cost. It will be held accountable.
Zero Tolerance
Thirdly, a robust military response is the new normal. Any terror attack will be presumed to be perpetrated by Pakistan and met with a strong military response. As the Prime Minister warned, "Operation Sindoor is India's policy against terrorism." It is equally significant that Operation Sindoor has only been "paused", indicating India's readiness to sustain the war on terror. Military response is now the default mode - a clear signal of a zero-tolerance policy for terror.
We have to, however, be careful that terror groups, pushed by equally irrational and radical elements in the Pakistani establishment, do not take advantage of this default posture of India and be tempted to stage another terror attack primarily to provoke another military conflict with Pakistan. They may do it under the wrong presumption that they will keep the so-called "Kashmir" issue on the boil and will internationalise it, especially now that they are in the UN Security Council. The world has no appetite for internationalising this issue, and the cost to Pakistan of any such misadventure will be huge.
A Comprehensive Deterrence Strategy
Fourthly, so far, India has always struggled to put in place a robust deterrence against Pakistan-sponsored terror, given our resolute but episodic approach to terror attacks. This time, the focus has been on establishing a comprehensive deterrence, which includes both military and non-military measures. The holding in abeyance of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) until Pakistan "credibly and irrevocably abjures" terrorism has been one such stand. Widely seen in India, especially in Jammu and Kashmir, as embodying an unequal sharing of waters-with only 30% of them allotted to India-our consistent efforts in the past to re-negotiate the Treaty have been thwarted at each and every attempt. Now, by holding it in abeyance and stating that "water and blood cannot flow together", India has served a notice to Pakistan, and indeed the international community, that it cannot agree to the status quo on the IWT or on cross-border terror. This has implications for the future of Pakistan.
Focus On Curbing Religiophobia
Fifthly, contrary to what the terrorists tried to achieve, which was to target Hindu tourists and create a communal divide in Jammu and Kashmir and even in other parts of India, they achieved the exact opposite. Indians, cutting across religions and regions, came together in solidarity with the victims of terror, all of whom were Hindus, except for one Muslim who sacrificed his life trying to save those tourists. As India's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, I had raised the issue of religiophobia against non-Abrahamic religions, including anti-Hindu, anti-Sikh and anti-Buddhist hate crimes, for the first time in the UN General Assembly in March 2022. Once the clouds of military action dissipate, it is time India launched a campaign to make sure that terror fuelled by religious hate does not go unpunished, and the growing religiophobia against Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists is acknowledged and fought.
Further, India has conclusively called the "nuclear bluff" of Pakistan, which the world had routinely parroted. At a time when the West was heavily arming Ukraine to take on a "nuclear" Russia, they were calling on nuclear India and nuclear Pakistan to de-escalate and preserve regional stability. As the Prime Minister mentioned, Pakistan was developing "terrorist hideouts" under the cover of nuclear blackmail. India has shed itself of the shackles of the nuclear bogey, and this is a huge game changer.
Victim And Perpetrator: A False Equivalence
It is clear that the international community was not unequivocal in their support for India on the Pahalgam terror attack. Neither did they call Pakistan out for perpetrating the attack. Even if some played a backdoor role to press Pakistan, their public posture was solely focused on ensuring that the situation did not spiral out of control. This will continue to be the default posture of the major powers. But their false equivalence between the victim India and the perpetrator Pakistan have been exposed in the face of India's decisive strikes at terror camps and, subsequently, at Pakistani domestic military assets, which showed that India is capable of decisively handling terror attacks on its own. Hopefully, this should have a sobering influence on the international community.
Much as US President Donald Trump wants to incorrectly portray the ceasefire as a US-mediated one, maybe Pakistan got the fig-leaf they were looking for to make an exit. Like President Clinton earlier, the US has had a history of putting pressure on Pakistan in order to make it step down from conflicts with India. This has usually been done to give Pakistan an "honourable" way out. India has shown restraint in not over-reacting to Trump's bluster and has factually established its stand in the public domain: of not agreeing to any mediation offers and treating issues bilaterally.
Once the Pakistan establishment understands the significance of what has transpired during Operation Sindoor, there is bound to be internal churn in the country. How this pans out in the coming months will be interesting to see, especially with a government that is widely seen as lacking legitimacy.
Operation Sindoor has once again underlined the importance of security and geopolitics going hand-in-hand with economic growth and development. And, the need for India to take a larger geopolitical role globally. This will only strengthen our strategic autonomy, not diminish it. It will only help our economic development, not decelerate it. It will stop the international community from trying to box us in geopolitically into South Asia. It will also be in line with the larger global role we are already being called upon to play.
(The author was the Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations, New York, from 2020 to 2022)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
