On August 5 last year, Bangladesh's then Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, had to leave Dhaka for New Delhi. It was a dramatic and historic moment. Even after a year, instability in Bangladesh has not subsided. We all await, with keen anticipation, the announcement of elections in the country.
But what is happening in the country? Which direction will Bangladesh take? What does Trump want? What does China want? How much is Bangladesh's situation under India's control? Last but not least, what does India want?
The past year has passed quickly. I still remember August 5, 2024, very clearly. Incidentally, that day, several of us journalists were at the West Bengal Legislative Assembly inside Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's office. It was 2:25 pm when the news broke: Sheikh Hasina had taken off from Dhaka by helicopter toward Delhi, accompanied by her sister Sheikh Rehana.
Updates were trickling in at Mamata Banerjee's office by the minute. The Chief Secretary and Director General of Police kept coming into the antechamber for discussions. They were coordinating with Delhi. A huge political upheaval had just taken place in Bangladesh. Muhammad Yunus had become the acting prime minister.
Even after a year, Bangladesh remains highly volatile. There is a sense of restlessness in Bangladesh. The Jamaat party has become very active. As August 5 returns to our doorstep, what are we seeking? As an Indian and a Bengali, I only want the people of Bangladesh, irrespective of party or ideology, not to suffer. When there is a fire in a neighbouring country, the fire inevitably flickers and reaches us. Especially for those of us in West Bengal, this situation is undesirable. Most of the India-Bangladesh border runs through West Bengal. So, our immediate demand is that elections be held promptly in Bangladesh. The people must get to exercise their voting rights. A democratically elected government must come to power. India absolutely cannot want any military regime or extremist force to take over the land of Pakistan-Bangladesh, crushing secularism.
On June 13 this year, former Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia's son Tarique Rahman held a meeting with Yunus in London. Tarique demanded that elections be held immediately. Yunus responded that in 2026, Ramadan would begin in mid-February, and elections cannot be held during Ramadan. Hence, he asked for more time. The joint statement issued after the Yunus-Tarique meeting bore no signatures. This raised serious doubts over how constitutional the BNP's demands were and to what extent Yunus would eventually honour any commitment.
Another reason Yunus asked for time is that he is reportedly trying to bring in certain administrative reforms in Bangladesh. When Yunus assumed power, the Bangladesh military had demanded that elections be held within 18 months. The army repeatedly made it clear: maintaining law and order was not their job. The military must counter any sudden defence-related threat, not manage internal unrest.
The sensible people of Bangladesh expect that elections will be announced very soon. But the situation is highly complex. Despite being a small country, Bangladesh's geopolitical location has always been vital. Therefore, Bangladesh has now become a battleground for the US and China. Currently, US Charge d'Affaires Tracy Jacobson is posted in Bangladesh.
The US State Department and Hillary Clinton had significant roles behind Yunus's rise to power (later, Donald Trump was elected US President again on January 20, 2025). Jacobson has met with representatives from Jamaat, BNP, and other political parties. She is also urging Yunus to hold elections. The US repeatedly reminds Yunus about the ongoing genocide and terrorist activities. They've also reminded Yunus about cracking down on banned organisations like Hizb ut-Tahrir, which murdered bloggers.
Yunus has assured a "zero tolerance" policy on terrorism and mass violence. However, as time passes, BNP suspects that Yunus is using "electoral reforms" as a pretext to delay elections. Without the Awami League, the BNP believes it can easily return to power. There is also speculation that if India pressures Yunus to include the Awami League in the electoral process, BNP may agree, and this is being used as a reason to delay elections. Yunus is trying to delay the election to increase the NCP party members.
Meanwhile, the US has shown strong interest in Saint Martin's Island, something they have coveted since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman's time. Sheikh Hasina had firmly refused US control over the region. But after Yunus, a US military drill took place there. Now, under Yunus's interim leadership, the fear within both the BNP and Awami League is that the US may strike a deal with Yunus to gain access to the place. Yunus is suspected of trying to build an understanding with the US to increase his tenure and delay the election.
On the other hand, both the US and China are extremely active in Myanmar's Rakhine province and Arakan. China seems quite interested in expanding its influence in those regions by using Bangladesh via Pakistan's Rohingya Salvation Army. The ISI chief even visited Dhaka. All these factors have added multiple layers and dimensions to Bangladesh's electoral scenario.
Now, if India sides with the US, China may become more hostile toward India. Already, India is tangled with Trump regarding tariffs. That's why India's stance is extremely crucial at this point. Currently, the chances of an Awami League revival seem slim, though in politics, there are no full stops. If elections are held, will Yunus retain power by striking an understanding with the US with support from the Jamaat, or will the BNP emerge victorious? India doesn't know. Since Yunus is in power now, Delhi has had to maintain diplomatic dialogue with him.
The new Bangladesh High Commissioner has come to Delhi and presented his credentials to the President. He also met Mamata Banerjee in Kolkata. However, he has avoided press conferences or meetings with journalists. It is unlikely all this could happen without India's consent. Therefore, it is clear that India has an ongoing diplomatic engagement with the Yunus government. There are no reports yet of India initiating talks with the Jamaat. Though Jamaat has expressed interest, India finds it extremely difficult to respond due to domestic political sensitivities.
Some diplomatic experts argue: if Ajit Doval could initiate talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan, why not with the Jamaat? Afghanistan, once thought to be under total Pakistani control, has shifted partially toward India's favour. As for BNP, many diplomats believe that if it comes to power, it will lean strongly towards China. Is that why the US prefers Yunus over BNP? Is that also why India maintains diplomatic channels with Yunus? Time will tell.
One thing is clear: whatever the outcome, the safety and security of Bangladesh's Hindu minority must not be compromised. The West Bengal assembly elections are scheduled for April-May 2026. If the Bangladesh elections happen before that, it will be beneficial for West Bengal. But if both elections happen simultaneously, and if the Jamaat attacks minority Hindus for political motives, it will turn into a drastic situation in West Bengal, which would be the last thing Mamata Banerjee would want.
The BJP could use that as a major issue against Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal. That could trigger an unwanted, bitter wave of religious polarisation in West Bengal and Bangladesh alike, leading to dangerous consequences for both countries. We, the people of both sides, equally dream of preserving the harmonious relationship that both nations have had since the 1971 independence of Bangladesh. Therefore, early elections in Bangladesh are essential.
(The author is Consulting Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
