Opinion | A US Bailout? A 'Coup'? What Are Asim Munir's Nuclear Threats Really About?

The drama king is back at it. The newly minted Field Marshal of Pakistan, Asim Munir, has gone on another rant, this time on foreign soil, with the most ridiculous threats. This is new for even Pakistan, which, though accustomed to having random generals thrust upon them for more than half their existence, hasn't really seen this particular raving variety. Usually, this lot just wears a lot of medals, speaks good English, and lets loose a few terrorists. This time, however, Munir wants to do much more. He's warning of nuclear war, one that he says will affect at least half the world.

The Incendiary Speech

The speech itself seems to have been made at a black-tie event hosted by one of the many rich, influential Pakistanis who seem to frequent American shores. One such, Sajid Tarar, a lawyer with long-time connections with Trump, had arranged his friendly lunch with the President. Another is Adnan Asad, the CEO of the Venus group of companies, which is listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange and operates in at least six countries. As an Honorary Consul, he hosted Munir at the dinner in Tampa, Florida, where invitations would have been for the rich and powerful only. And that is where the Field Marshal said this about the possibility of Pakistan facing an existential threat in a future war with India: "We are a nuclear nation, if we think we are going down, we'll take half the world down with us". Not content with that, he went further to mention the Indus Water Treaty suspension. He said that with 250 million Pakistanis likely to face starvation, "We will wait for India to build a dam, and when it does so, we will destroy it with 10 missiles". Then was the crowning hoot, for which he was trolled mercilessly: "India is a shining Mercedes coming on a highway like Ferrari [sic], but we are a dump truck full of gravel. If the truck hits the car, who is going to be the loser?"

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One Threat Too Many?

One could simply collapse with laughter and write this off as another one of Munir's mad musings. He's rather prone to this. Recall that he had made another such rant days before the Pahalgam attack - again in front of Pakistani expatriates - saying that Hindus and Muslims would never be one, and that Kashmir was the 'jugular vein' of Pakistan. The latter has been said many a time before, but no army chief in recent history has made such a damaging religious statement. The essence of this speech was later repeated to cadets at the Kakul military academy, and, post-Pahalgam, to the Mangla Strike Corps. Later, his spokesperson, in an interview with The Economist, said that in a future war, Pakistan would 'start from the East', clearly referring to Bangladesh as a point of entry in covert or overt operations. Curiously, that was repeated by Munir in his speech in Tampa, where he again said that operations would start in the East.

All this is more or less par for the course. Remember, Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is based on not just 'first use' and 'full spectrum' deterrence (which includes tactical nukes) but, in terms of red lines, it is quite wide to include economic strangulation or political destabilisation. The doctrine, therefore, is deliberately kept irrational, so as to project a 'highly dangerous' stance. In practice, however, most military leaders, while rattling the nuclear sabre during a war going bad - as in Kargil - have kept their actual use of force low. Consider, for instance, the very limited Pakistani action after Balakote, or even during Kargil. The Air Force was never even consulted in the latter.

Unpleasant Realities

This time, however, things are different. First, Munir's latest rant was on US soil. That's the first time that a serving 'leader' has made such a deliberate threat in what is still the most powerful democracy in the world. The second is the fact that he read out from a written script. Both indicate that this was a carefully thought-through strategy and speech, the calculation being that this table-thumping will probably go down well with the Trump administration. A similar carefully calibrated move had been made during Trump's earlier tenure, when strings were pulled to ensure that the then Prime Minister, Imran Khan, met Trump. The latter was charmed by the urbane but flatteringly attentive Khan. That was, in fact, the first time Trump had openly offered mediation on Kashmir. 

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Trump likes strongmen. His invite to Munir clearly indicates that. In addition, there's no doubt that Munir is being courted by CENTCOM, with outgoing Commander Gen Kurilla inviting him to his retirement function. Earlier, Kurilla had praised Pakistan for its 'phenomenal partnership' on counter-terrorism - apparently referring to the opportunistic handing over of an alleged plotter of the attack on departing US troops in Afghanistan. That was timed shrewdly to coincide with Trump's inaugural address. Also consider that this baton of warmth would have been passed on to the new commander, Admiral Cooper. Munir also got the opportunity to meet the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan McCaines. The read-out of that visit lauded a recent Pakistan-hosted meeting of Central Asian defence chiefs under the auspices of the US. In the meeting between Secretary Rubio and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, the emphasis was on Pakistan's "continued willingness to play a constructive role in mediating conversations with Iran" and "bilateral counterterrorism cooperation, including countering ISIS-K" in Afghanistan. In other words, Pakistan is again being given a regional role, where it is expected to bolster US objectives. Worst of all, alongside this is the deliberate targeting of India in public pressure tactics.

It's Not Really The Nuclear Threat

But it may well be that this outrageous nuclear threat is rather the thin edge of the wedge. The US non-proliferation lobby has always been a little unsure when it comes to Pakistan. True, they haven't cared enough to do anything about it - like dismantling Ukraine's nuclear arsenal - but only indulged them with generous aid. It is generally known that, despite the bonhomie, the US Central Command had a watching brief on Pakistan's nuclear weapons and would be ready to jump in if things got out of hand. It is, therefore, entirely logical that Delhi has called out this dangerous game as 'irresponsible', noting that Pakistan has always been more aggressive when it has US support. 

That, however, still doesn't answer the key question as to what Munir is angling for. Either he's asking for a US bailout - the Chinese are apparently getting tired of endlessly extending loans - or he's marketing himself internally as a prospective President. Also, note that at both times - now and pre-Pahalgam - he had Pakistani expatriates as audiences for his dire warnings. It seems that Munir is playing to a strong support base in the US that will erode the formidable patronage that once existed for Imran Khan. Clearly, he has succeeded. Recent protests in the US against Munir by Khan's party loyalists have been terrible. 

It's Not About India, Either

In sum, it's not India that is the target of these fulminations, but the US. And so it always has been in any war, where Rawalpindi is able to get a US role, so vital for money and the international stage. In all this, Kashmir doesn't count much, except as a rallying point for hate. Neither in fact does the Indus Water Treaty. Pakistani analysts have themselves pointed out that with a little hard work on canals and new dams, the suspension will hardly affect the country. Finally, it's all about the Pakistan Army and the plentiful perks it enjoys as long as its heady narrative of a perpetual threat is bought by Pakistanis everywhere. And so it always has been, and with Trump around, so it will remain, for the immediate future. Be ready for trouble. The man has yet to get anything in dollar terms.

Oddly, Pakistan's civilian leadership are even now assuring the minorities of all rights - laughable against all that their uniformed leader has been saying.

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author