Watch the analysis of assembly elections in West Bengal with Prannoy Roy, Shekhar Gupta and Dorab Sopariwala. Voting in West Bengal is divided in six phases. While the first phase voting took place on April 4 and 11, the other phases will be held on April 17, 21, 25, 30 and May 5. Counting on May 19.
The Left-Congress combine has a 40% chance of winning this election.
Based on data, there is 60% chance that Mamata Banerjee will win a 2nd straight term as Chief Minister.
"Nothing is there... only bhaashan
. And silence is golden in this regard," says West Bengal on Narendra Modi's performance as PM.
"It is a blunder by Congress to align with the CPI(M). The Congress can't go it alone in any state now," says Mamata Banerjee.
Mamata Banerjee denies poll-related violence, says Bengal was number 1 in political violence during Left rule, now it's not.
"Everyone in my party is honest. Opposition parties have crossed all limits. They are using bad, filthy language like I have never seen before," says West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee.
Muslim votes differ regionally in the state.
Muslim vote crucial in West Bengal. Trinamool Congress' vote share is weaker in Muslim seats.
Muslims are in the North Central Belt. Here there are large no of seats with more than 50% Muslim voters.
The Muslim percentage population in Bengal is 27%.
Can opposition unity and swing impact help Congress-Left agreement win?
In 2014, the BJP gained primarily from a 12% swing away from the Left
But in 2014, there was a complete change. Trinamool Congress on its own got 214 seats.
In 2014, if Left and Congress would have got together, they would have got 97 seats
Impact of Left-Congress agreement. The Congress was king-maker in 2011.
"The situation in Bengal and Kerala is different. Bengal is facing tyranny and despotic government," says Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury.
Can't name Chief Ministerial candidate yet. Our focus right now is to dislodge Mamata government, says West Bengal Congress chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury.
"We are confident of win", says Surjya Kant Mishra
"We are against unnecessary political interference in administration..In 2011, there was a clear attempt by Trinamool Congress to polarise voters," says Surjya Kant Mishra.
CPI(M)'s Surjya Kant Mishra says there is no need to convince voters, they see reality.
Mamata Banerjee lost so much votes in Kolkata because it was a four-way fight, says Dorab Sopariwala.
BJP doesn't have an ally here. I don't see Mamata in the future allying with the BJP, says Shekhar Gupta.
"Trinamool vote is a rock-solid vote. We don't change our ideology like a T-shirt," says Derek O'Brien.
BJP gained from TMC in Kolkata, gained from Left in rest of West Bengal
From 2011 to 2014 elections, BJP gained from Left
TMC dominated Kolkata, Suburban Kolkata region in 2011 and 2014 elections
In Central Belt, Trinamool Congress is very strong, whereas Left is on a decline
In North Central region, Congress is strong and Trinamool Congress is relatively weak
In many ways, voting pattern in West Bengal is not uniform.
A swing of 3% votes from Trinamool Congress (TMC) to the Left-Congress could see the TMC race ahead with 149 of 294 seats.A 2% swing in favour of the Trinamool Congress will make it cross the 200 mark.
Trinamool Congress fought 2011 Vidhan Sabha polls in alliance with Congress. By 2014, they had parted ways
Fall of the Left Vs rise of BJP in 2014
In 2014 polls, Mamata Banerjee's party won 34 of Bengal's 42 Lok Sabha seats
How will Mamata Banerjee's numbers stack up? Watch the analysis of assembly elections with Prannoy Roy.