- Vijay's party won 108 seats but lacks a clear majority in the Tamil Nadu assembly
- Two smaller parties, AMMK and IUML, refuse to support Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam
- VCK's support, with two MLAs, is crucial for Vijay to reach the 118-seat majority
Vijay's biggest political moment is still in limbo, as majority remains elusive from the superstar despite scoring an electoral blockbuster in the Dravidian heartland of Tamil Nadu.
Last minute hiccups followed what appeared as a done deal last evening, as two smaller parties -- TTV Dhinakaran's AMMK and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) -- made it clear they wouldn't back the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
At the centre of the suspense now is the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), which has two MLAs - whose support would ensure that Vijay has the enough strength to form the government.
The VCK is expected to make its stance clear today, with sources suggesting the party's chief Thol Thirumavalavan still holding talks with the DMK leadership.
Vijay held hectic negotiations with the VCK, AMMK, and an IUML MLA yesterday, but sources said he couldn't muster their support as yet and currently has just 116 MLA-elects on his side. The TVK boss will meet Thirumavalavan today to confirm if he has his support - if he agrees, then it would be 'whistle podu' time in Chennai.
Read: In Tamil Nadu Political Chaos, A 1997 Pramod Mahajan Speech Finds Relevance
The Stalemate
Vijay met Governor RV Arlekar at Lok Bhavan twice on Wednesday and Thursday but failed to convince him that he had the required strength to run an administration. He met him for a third time last evening, but the governor still didn't budge.
Sources in the governor's office said Vijay hasn't been invited to take the oath as chief minister since he couldn't prove that he had the support of 118 MLAs. The governor insisted that he must give letters of support of as many MLA-elects to prove his majority.
118 is the halfway mark in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu assembly, the required strength for a party or coalition to stake claim to the government.
Read: 'Could Be Forgery': AMMK Chief To NDTV On TVK Claiming Support Of His MLA
The Coalition Math
There are currently only three other parties in Vijay's support -- CPI, CPM, and Congress -- with very different coalition terms. While the Left parties extended unconditional support, the Congress' backing came with conditions. While the Left opted out of Vijay's cabinet, sources said Congress expected two ministries.
The TVK emerged the largest single party with 108 seats in the recent polls, ending the Dravidian giants DMK and AIADMK's 62-year-old stranglehold on the government. With Vijay winning two seats, the party currently has 107 MLAs.
The Congress's support adds five more MLAs to the TVK's favour, while the Left provides the backing of four MLAs. This adds up to 116 MLAs, two short of the 118-halfway mark. Vijay must get two more MLAs to support his coalition for the governor to approve of his attempts at government formation.
Until then, an oath ceremony appears unlikely.
