- Majha region in Punjab is key for parties needing religious voter support across four districts
- AAP won 16 of 25 Majha seats in 2022, with Congress and SAD trailing behind
- Multi-party fight includes AAP, Congress, SAD, BJP, and Amritpal Singh's Waris Punjab De
Majha area of Punjab, often referred to as the Panthic voter heartland, acquires political significance due to the presence of religious voters in the region. Political parties need the backing of religious groups to win elections in this region comprising four districts, including Amritsar, Taran Taran ,Pathankot and Gurdaspur. The 25 assembly constituencies in this region are a stronghold of Sikh voters.
Historically, the Majha region has been a pocket borough of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Congress. SAD lost its base in this region in 2017 when Congress formed the government. Congress's Panthic vote slipped towards the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in 2022. AAP bagged 16 of the 25 assembly seats, followed by the Congress, which won seven seats. Once known as the Panthic party, the Shiromani Akali Dal won just one seat. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also won a seat from this region.
The political landscape has changed this time, making it difficult for the mainstream political parties to win elections in Majha.
A multi-cornered fight between the Aam Aadmi Party, Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal, BJP, and Amritpal Singh-led Shiromani Akali Dal Waris Punjab De will make the contests difficult. The Panthic voter will be cautious because recent developments, including the screening of the controversial movie 'Satluj', Ravneet Singh Bittu's aggressive pro-Hindu campaigning and MS Bitta's warning that he will expose the wrongdoings of Khalistani militants, have reopened old wounds and created insecurity about the Sikh identity.
"Severe anti-incumbency due to agrarian distress, corruption, drug issues, and sacrilege incidents decimated SAD. The party is desperate to reclaim its core Jat-Sikh peasantry and Panthic identity. Implementing BJP's signature "Double Engine Sarkar" model remains a steep uphill climb in a Sikh-majority state historically sceptical of the central government's focus," says Dr Neetu Sharma, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Mata Sundri College for Women, University of Delhi, in her research paper Mapping Punjab Ahead of 2027 Elections: Challenges, Choices and Political Faultlines.
Experts believe that the majority of Panthic votes could go to Amritpal's party. Congress and AAP, besides Shiromani Akali Dal will also attract a share of this segment of voters. The Aam Aadmi Party, which bagged sizeable numbers in 2022, may not attract similar numbers due to the edict issued by Shri Akal Takht, asking Sikhs to keep away from CM Bhagwant Mann following the viral video forensic investigation fiasco.
Anil Sarin, General Secretary, BJP, while reacting to the assessment that the saffron party will not get votes in the Panthic belt, said, "BJP has done more for the community than any other party. Unlike others, we do not make false promises to attract voters. Our government in Haryana is giving MSP cover on 24 crops. How many crops did AAP bring under MSP? A double-engine government will ensure employees get their dues without delay. The drug issue will get a real solution besides improved law and order."
The tussle between Bhagwant Mann and Akal Takht Jathedar will impact AAP's prospects. Congress may suffer as 'Satluj' has reminded the insurgency victims that it happened during the Congress regime. Shiromani Akal Dal has also lost grip on Panthic voters following the 2015 police action and now the summoning of Sukhbir Badal by SIT, formed to investigate the police action against silent Sikh protesters demanding action against sacrilege. BJP has a rare chance to attract the Panthic votes, but the top leadership is busy sending feelers to the masses in the Panthic voter belt or elsewhere.
"The mainstream political parties are facing new challenges this time. Even if there is an undercurrent favouring the radical elements, much will depend on the party nominees as their face value and popularity also attract votes. Yes, the neo-panthics like Waris Punjab De will attract more Panthic votes as they did in the Lok Sabha polls," Prof Gurmeet Singh, a Chandigarh based psephologist, told NDTV.
When asked if the BJP will be able to attract Panthic votes, Prof Gurmeet Singh said: "The two things which may affect the BJP are: the unmet demand to release the prisoners (Khalistani convicts) who have completed their jail terms and the ban on the film Satluj will also go against the party. The radical elements will make these issues in polls."
Experts also say that if the Panthic vote is not consolidated, it will benefit the BJP as the votes will divide among rivals. What is clear is that the Shiromani Akali Dal's diminishing popularity in the Panthic vote bank has created political space for radical neo-panthics. What remains to be seen is how the Sikh majority votes and how the mainstream political parties counter the radicals.
