Nitish Cabinet Formation: 5 Key Factors That Will Shape The New Team

With the NDA's resounding victory in Bihar, all eyes are now on Nitish Kumar's new cabinet. The veteran leader will take oath as Chief Minister for the tenth time on 20th November, and the state can have up to 36 ministers besides the Chief Minister.

Will there be two Deputy Chief Ministers again, or will the number increase as the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) stakes its claim? Will Nitish fill all positions immediately or keep some vacant for future adjustments? These questions underline the complexity of the task ahead.

For Nitish Kumar, this is more than just forming a government-it's about managing allies, balancing caste equations, and signalling future political plans. Every choice will carry a message for Bihar and beyond. Nitish Kumar and the NDA leadership will primarily consider five factors for cabinet formation.

Representation Proportional to Caste Population

Caste remains the cornerstone of Bihar politics. To maintain social balance, the cabinet is expected to reflect the state's caste demographics. Ideally, representation should match population share, that is, each caste should get representation in the cabinet proportional to its share in the population. This step will send a message to all major social groups that their participation in the government is ensured.

According to this calculation, the cabinet should have 11% upper castes, 14% Yadavs, 11% non-Yadav OBCs, 25% EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes), 20% Dalits, 1% Tribals, and 18% Muslims. However, the NDA has only one Muslim MLA.

Balancing NDA's Caste-Wise MLAs

Not just population, but the caste-wise number of MLAs elected on NDA tickets will also play a crucial role in the distribution of ministerial positions. The allocation of ministries will also be based on how many MLAs from each caste have won. This step will ensure that no caste group within the party feels neglected.

Among NDA's elected MLAs, 36% are from upper castes, 6% Yadavs, 21% non-Yadav OBCs, 19% EBCs, 17% Dalit-Tribal, and 0% Muslims. EBCs, despite being crucial to NDA's victory, received fewer tickets than their population share. However, the resounding mandate wouldn't have come without their support, so this formula isn't foolproof.

Rewarding Social Groups for Support

The support received by the NDA from various social groups in the elections will also be taken into account. Communities that strongly backed NDA may be rewarded with cabinet positions. This will not only help maintain the trust of these groups but also ensure their mobilisation for future elections.

According to VoteVibe exit polls, approximately 64% of the upper caste community supported the NDA, 60% of the Dalit-Tribal community, and 57.5% of non-Yadav OBC and EBC communities gave tremendous support. These groups are considered the NDA's core vote bank. Additionally, 19% of the Yadav community and 12% of the Muslim community also extended support according to exit polls. The cabinet could also be formed based on this proportion. However, since the NDA has only one Muslim MLA, the same dilemma will arise.

Geographic Balance

Regional representation is another critical factor. Bihar's North accounts for 58% of seats, while South has 42%. NDA's MLAs are split 56% North vs 44% South.

Key zones:

North Bihar: Tirhut (22%), Darbhanga (13%), Saran (10%), Kosi (5%), Purnea (7%)

South Bihar: Magadh (10%), Bhojpur (9%), Patna (9%), Munger (9%), Bhagalpur (6%)

Nitish must ensure no region feels sidelined.

5. Eye on Future Elections

This cabinet isn't just about Bihar. It will influence 2027 UP Assembly polls and the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. BJP will aim to consolidate vote banks that matter nationally, while Nitish will seek to strengthen his own leverage.

Women's representation is another challenge. While ideally 50% of ministers should be women, only 12% of MLAs are female, making this difficult.

The Big Picture

Nitish Kumar's cabinet will be a delicate balancing act-caste, region, party dynamics, and future strategy all intertwined. Whether he opts for a full-strength team or keeps some seats vacant for later, every move will be closely watched.