In NDTV's special election show, we decode the political landscape of Uttar Pradesh, the state with the most Lok Sabha seats. The state features several prestigious seats, such as Varanasi, Rae Bareli, Amethi among others that will see high-stake battles in the ongoing Lok Sabha polls 2024.
In Battleground Uttar Pradesh, NDTV's Editor-In-Chief Sanjay Pugalia discusses with a panel of experts who has the edge in Uttar Pradesh.
Here are the highlights on NDTV's Battleground Uttar Pradesh
NDTV Battleground Uttar Pradesh:"Regional parties are very critical. In the last 10 years, the BJP has lost most of the elections. 200 seats BJP vs Congress and 243 - BJP vs Regional Parties," said Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder and Director, CVoter.
"Congress is alone fighting in Punjab, Karnataka and Telangana and they are fighting in alliance in other states as junior partners. They might gain in these few states. In NDA, BJP's share has increased to 370 for BJP and 30 for NDA," said Sandeep Shastri, Director - Academics, NITTE Education Trust.
NDTV Battleground Uttar Pradesh:"UP, West Bengal and Odisha are states key for BJP to get gains. BJP is hoping for split voting in Odisha. BJP's strategy is to attain, gain and maintain. Full election is on 200 seats - 175 BJP and 25 Congress," said Amitabh Tiwari, Political Strategist.
NDTV Battleground Uttar Pradesh:
"BJP has trouble in Karnataka, might try to compensate in Telangana. West Bengal is a key state and Maharashtra has a big role. Apart from Congress and BJP no other party has a history of elections. I think voters of this country have a sense and ground reports are saying which group is real Shiv Sena and NCP. These 3 states are key and I'd add UP and Bihar as well. The results will decide NDA, Congress Numbers," said Sandeep Shastri, Director - Academics, NITTE Education Trust.
NDTV Battleground Uttar Pradesh:
"Congress has gained in the South and they won Telangana, Karnataka and it will be a good contest. Our trackers said their numbers are good in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In Maharashtra, voters feel cheated that's why low voter turnout. Varanasi is a diverse town," said Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder and Director, CVoter.
NDTV Battleground Uttar Pradesh:"States where BJP has govt, UP is the only state where actual double-engine govt exists and we might see its impact this time. Ram Mandir construction has a huge impact on UP and has favoured BJP, NDA. They might be able to regain control," said Sandeep Shastri, Director - Academics, NITTE Education Trust.
"BJP has repeated most sitting MPs in the UP. BSP is trying to show that it is trying to harm both BJP and SP-Congress by fielding minority candidates. Seems like they are trying to harm one of the parties. Hindutva factor has huge impact in UP. SP understood this and has given Yadav tickets in its family and they have fielded most OBC candidates. 26% tickets to non-yadav OBCs. I think politics has moved from caste politics," said Amitabh Tiwari, Political Strategist.
"In the last 15 years, in India's Muslim politics, BJP which used to get single digit vote percentage is now getting double digit Muslim vote percentage. Unfortunately if Muslims vote for BJP, they are called Sarkaari Muslims," said Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder and Director, CVoter.
NDTV Battleground Uttar Pradesh: Understanding Mayawati's Politics"Bipolarity reduced her vote share. Her party is number 3 in non-jaatav voters according to Axis-MySurvey. First is BJP then SP and then BSP," said Amitabh Tiwari, Political Strategist.
"There is more bipolar competition in UP and that's why BSP is now more of a 3rd player. OBC vote might go to BJP, non-jatatav dalit vote might go to BJP, SP. Jaatav vote might stay with BSP but she's losing some support, we saw that in the last election," said Sandeep Shastri, Director - Academics, NITTE Education Trust.
"In 2019 when the Grand Alliance was made in UP, the best possible Opposition alliance, you ignored a 12.5% partner and brought Congress with a 2.5% partner. I don't understand the maths. This election will be the baseline, will bipolarisation take place or Mayawati will be able to hold her 12.5% vote share? If it further reduces then I think existential crisis will happen for BSP," said Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder and Director, CVoter.
NDTV Battleground Uttar Pradesh: Why Eastern UP Not Giving Results To BJP
"In 2022 Assembly Elections, Samajwadi Party did well in this area. The demographic of this area has dalit-muslim population and non-OBC Yadav. There are small parties here like OP Rajbhar's party and Nishad party," said Amitabh Tiwari, Political Strategist.
NDTV Battleground Uttar Pradesh: Importance Of Varanasi Seat"BJP has 50% vote bank in UP. Apart from Hindutva, PM Modi used apolitical communication to interact with people. Why is choosing Varanasi important for PM Modi?," said Sandeep Shastri, Director - Academics, NITTE Education Trust.
"Banaras has a strong cultural significance for Hindus. There has been a strong affinity of Varanasi toward the BJP," said Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder and Director, CVoter.
"In 2014, when BJP was planning a strategy, they needed a great performance and they had to perform in UP to reach the majority mark. If the PM candidate fights from UP also apart from his seat in Gujarat...fighting from Varanasi had an impact on the areas nearby. Varanasi' cultural significance has been a factor. Since 2014, there has been a lot of development that has happened.," said Sandeep Shastri, Director - Academics, NITTE Education Trust.
NDTV Battleground Uttar Pradesh:"The country has changed a lot and the change is rapid and there's only PM Modi who is able to understand the change. Women as a vote bank being compared with beneficiaries is not right....the equation and factors are different. Women voted on issues of toilets, safety security and not primarily on sanitation. No toilets in house was a law and order issue for women. In 2014, after PM Modi came into power, the first programme televised was his interaction with chindren..,these children entered the voting population. In 2014, PM Modi focused on those 10% of new voters," said Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder and Director, CVoter
NDTV Battleground Uttar Pradesh:"We try to cover at least 5% of women in our surveys and we have seen a trend in the last 15 years that women have different opinions than men even in the same families," said Sandeep Shastri, Director - Academics, NITTE Education Trust.
NDTV Battleground Uttar Pradesh:"After Phase 1 turnout, BJP was the 1st party that did a meeting and made it public. Phase 1 is the only phase where NDA was behind INDIA and to cross 370 or 400 mark, they needed gains in phase 1. When BJP won in 1999%, their victory margin was 5%, In 2004 they lost. In 2019, BJP's victory margin on seats was 20%. Swing needed should be around 10%. Silent voters decide elections - They are women and beneficiaries. Women don't present their viewpoint much out in the open and even beneficiaries and they are important voters," said Amitabh Tiwari, Political Strategist
NDTV Battleground Uttar Pradesh: Deciphering Voter Turnout
"There is not much difference between the previous elections and this election. In the phase 1, many parties felt the turnout was low and they tried to defend their area to inspire their workers, voters," said Sandeep Shastri, Director - Academics, NITTE Education Trust.