Will Lalu Yadav's RJD Tighten Hold On Bihar Muslim Votes. What Numbers Say

As political parties in Bihar work overtime to win over voters for the upcoming Assembly polls, a big question is who will manage to corner the Muslim minority vote in Bihar. Muslims account for about 17 per cent of Bihar's population. The 2022 survey carried out by Nitish Kumar's Mahagathbandhan government found that Muslims form 17.7 per cent of the state's population. The 2011 Census put this at 16.9 per cent.

Out of the 243 Assembly seats in Bihar, 87 segments have a Muslim population of over 20 per cent, and 47 have it between 15 and 20 per cent. A large chunk of Muslims are concentrated in the Seemanchal region of Bihar, which comprises four districts -- Araria, Katihar, Kishanganj, and Purnia. Out of these, Kishanganj has the highest Muslim population -- 68 per cent of its population, followed by Katihar (44 per cent), Araria (43 per cent), and Purnia (38 per cent). These four districts have a total of 24 Assembly seats.

A Lalu Yadav Stronghold

A large majority of Muslim votes in Bihar has traditionally gone to Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Nitish Kumar, the incumbent Chief Minister, has been drawing about 5 per cent of Muslim votes. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, when Nitish Kumar's JDU contested in alliance with the Left parties, they cornered 23.5 per cent of Muslim votes. JDU contested the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections in alliance with the BJP and got 6 per cent and 12 per cent of Muslim votes, respectively. In both these general elections, the Lok Janshakti Party and Hindustan Awam Morcha were with NDA as the JDU.

The Lalu-Nitish Combine Boost

In the 2015 Bihar Assembly election, JDU and RJD allied to take on the BJP. They got 80 per cent of the state's Muslim votes. Before the 2020 election, Nitish Kumar switched sides. This time, he got just 5 per cent Muslim votes. In the 2015 polls, JDU fielded seven Muslim candidates and five won. In 2020, it fielded 11 Muslim candidates; none won. JDU had seven MLAs in Seemanchal after the 2015 polls; this dropped to three in 2020.

As for the RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan, it got 80 per cent of Muslim votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and 87 per cent in the 2024 election. As for the Assembly polls, JDU-RJD got 80 per cent of Muslim votes in 2015. When they parted ways and contested the 2020 polls separately, the RJD alliance got 76 per cent of Muslim votes.

Nitish Kumar's Iftar Politics

It is for this 4-5 per cent vote share among Muslims that Nitish Kumar organises Iftaar parties. Despite being the BJP's ally on and off for two decades now, Nitish Kumar has managed to maintain a largely secular image. Nitish Kumar has worked a lot for the Pasmanda Muslim community and also accommodated one of their leaders as a Rajya MP. The BJP, too, has been reaching out to the Pasmanda Muslims and organized a conference of the community on June 30. At this community meet, the slogan of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, and Sabka Vishwas was raised. About 75 per cent of Pasmada Muslims come from backward and extremely backward sections.

Muslim MLAs in Bihar Assembly

In 2010, the number of Muslim MLAs in Bihar Assembly stood at 19. This climbed to 24 in 2015, when JDU and RJD joined hands. The number dropped to 19 again in 2020, when they faced off.

In 2020, eight out of 18 RJD Muslim candidates won, and four out of 12 Congress candidates won. The other seven Muslim MLAs were from BSP, CPIML and Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM. While four of AIMIM's MLAs later switched to RJD, 2020 showed that Muslims took a chance wherever they got it. This time too, political gurus will be watching the Owaisi factor and how many candidates AIMIM fields.

The Prashant Kishor Factor

While the RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan is expected to corner most of the Muslim votes in the upcoming election, a key factor will be how many Muslim candidates Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj fields and how many votes they cut. Mr Kishor has claimed that he would field 40-odd Muslim candidates. If this happens, the Mahagathbandhan has reasons to worry. A big question is also whether Nitish Kumar would enjoy Muslims' support after the Waqf laws were amended.