The US's contribution towards global warming is the largest at 25 per cent
As COP27, the annual UN climate jamboree starts, India appears to be on a strong footing to play a decisive, leadership role even though it has an Achilles heel vulnerability. At this Conference of Parties of over 190 nations, pressure is building on rich nations to pay for the loss and damage - which is finally on the agenda after decades of pushback - in poor and developing nations due to global warming, for which the rich nations are historically responsible. Questions like the losses suffered by India due to emission by, say, the US are being calculated.
India has contributed less than 4 per cent towards global warming, while America's the largest at 25% and the European Union next at 22 per cent; China has been catching up in recent decades contributing about 13 per cent. India's stand is that both historically and in the contemporary period it has consumed significantly far less of the global carbon budget while developed countries have significantly consumed greater than their share.
PM Modi Not Attending, Developed Nations Well Represented
A couple of weeks before COP opened, US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced they will attend the major event. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, is not attending and neither is Chinese President Xi Jinping, though India and China are two of the top three polluters.
COP27: Globally, even with rising emissions, India's per capita emissions are estimated to remain very low
In the flood of reports and analysis that have been published ahead of the summit, it's clear that this will perhaps be the most political COP yet, and there have been many especially since Copenhagen, 2009. That's when the developed, rich nations most responsible for global warming agreed to pay $100 billion a year from 2020 onwards towards a "green" fund to help developing countries cope with the effects of global warming; they have failed to do so, barely paying a little more than $83 billion in all.
Pressure is mounting on all major polluters, developed and developing, to cut emissions much faster than what they have pledged so far; the G20 nations are responsible for three-quarters of global emissions.
Make-or-break moment is here
As COP27 opened on November 6, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) reported that the last eight years have been the warmest on record. Sea levels are rising at twice the speed of the 1990s. It has risen by nearly 10 mm since January 2020 to a record high this year.
As COP27 opened on November 6, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) reported that the last eight years have been the warmest on record
Low-lying island states like the Maldives and the Marshall Islands are running out of time. It is estimated that once global temperatures cross 1.5 degrees Celsius, these islands may start submerging and other effects of global warming - intense heat waves, droughts, lower crop yields, extreme rainfall and storms - will worsen.
At the current rate of emissions, 1.5 degree Celsius is likely to be breached by 2030, which is why it's being seen as a make-or-break year. The warming is continuing. The WMO reports the last 10 years are warmer by 1.14 degree Celsius, a notch higher than the 1.09 degree Celsius for the decade till 2020.
The harsh truth is that there is no way - as of now - that humanity is going to meet the 1.5 degree Celsius, 2030 deadline. Emissions which are meant to be cut by 45 per cent by then are actually on track to rise.
COP27: India's per capita emissions is much lower than the global average (source: UNEP)
India is a major polluter but a major sufferer as well. In 2020, the Climate Transparency Report estimated India suffered an average annual loss of about $87 billion from extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, floods and droughts. As global warming increases, India is forecast to suffer more - millions more will be exposed to heat waves, frequency of droughts is expected to increase, the yields of crops including major ones like rice, wheat and maize will fall.
What the US 'owes' India
How much rich nations should pay developing nations battered by climate change is the subject of many studies, which are making it tougher for these nations to walk away from their responsibilities.
One of these is the National Attribution of Historical Climate Damages. One of its authors, Christopher W Callahan, told NDTV that the US has caused $257 billion in cumulative losses in India, in 2010-equivalent US dollars. This number refers to cumulative losses over 1990-2014, caused by emissions over that same period but the losses are likely to be actually far more.
COP27: How much rich nations should pay developing nations battered by climate change is the subject of many studies
Mr Callahan explains why. "Our analysis demonstrates that India has experienced substantial economic losses over the last several decades due to the actions of major emitting countries. Our analysis only considers temperature increases, but climate change has also increased the frequency and intensity of other extreme events such as floods, so our analysis is likely an underestimate of the true economic toll of global warming."
"The same major emitters that have contributed most to global warming - and thus the resulting economic losses - are the countries least willing to consider an international funding programme for loss and damage at COP27. This is ethically untenable. For both large countries like India, and for smaller island nations, an international funding facility for loss and damage financing is essential to blunting the worst impacts of global warming. Major emitters like the United States must contribute to this financing," Mr Callahan said.
The moral pressure is building up from other quarters too. The group of scientists behind the recent, seventh Lancet Countdown report say that while theirs is a technical initiative, it "must not be afraid of politics." The collective "failure to address the climate emergency" is political, not technical. The Transparency report points out that the US, the UK, Australia, Canada and Italy have not delivered their "fair share" contribution towards the $100 billion a year green fund; the US was especially short, contributing only 5 per cent of their annual fair share in 2020.
COP27: The group of scientists behind the recent, seventh Lancet Countdown report say that while theirs is a technical initiative, it "must not be afraid of politics"
Despite being third largest polluter, advantage India?
India is perhaps better placed in a significant way than China to play a leading role at the negotiations particularly on behalf of the global South, along with Pakistan which chairs the G77 plus China, the grouping of over 130 developing countries.
While India is the third-biggest polluter in absolute emissions, its per capita emissions is much lower than the global average, and way less than the top two polluters, China and the US. India's per capita emissions is currently 2.4 tonnes of CO2-equivalent far below the world's average of 6.3 tCO2e, and well below America's 14, China's 7.5 and the EU's 7.2 tCO2e.
Moreover, India's solar power and broader renewable energy programme has been recognised as one of the biggest and most ambitious in the world. Although it fell very short of its target of 175 gigawatts of renewables capacity by March 2022, solar power capacity has been growing by double digit percentage points in recent years. While India may not reach 175 GW renewables generation by the end of 2022, its 2030 targets of 450 GW renewables and 500 GW non-fossil capacity are seen to be well within reach.
COP27: The harsh truth is that there is no way - as of now - that humanity is going to meet the 1.5 degree Celsius, 2030 deadline.
But India will be under pressure as well to cut emissions a lot more than what it had pledged, particularly to cut back on coal use. Despite the ambitious renewables targets, India will be adding to its coal power capacity. Its total CO2 emissions projected will increase from 910 million tonnes in 2020-21 to 1,180 million tonnes in 2031-32, an almost 30 per cent increase, according to the draft national electricity plan. India's stand for years has been that its emissions will grow to meet social and developmental needs. For any just climate action, New Delhi says it needs a trillion dollars this decade alone.
However, India has an incentive to cut emissions. Losses due to India's emissions to itself have been calculated at approximately $109 billion dollars, cumulatively over 1990-2014 by the Historical Climate Damages study.
Globally, though, even with rising emissions, India's per capita emissions are estimated to remain very low. By the make-or-break year of 2030, both America and China's per capita emissions are likely to be about 9-10 tCO2e, with America's declining and China's rising. However, India's will have risen to just 3.1 tCO2e from the current 2.4 tonnes.
COP27: Emissions which are meant to be cut by 45 per cent by then are actually on track to rise
Rising temperatures are hurting India's economy the most among G20 nations, according to the latest Climate Transparency Report. It estimated the losses of earnings to be 5.4 per cent of India's gross domestic product (GDP) or $159 billion due to heat-related labour capacity reduction in four sectors - services, manufacturing, agriculture and construction - in 2021. The next biggest loss is 1.6 per cent of GDP for Indonesia.
In short, among the major economies a.k.a. polluters, India has the most to lose and the most to contribute. But it also needs to demonstrate that it is willing to actually cut emissions for its own and global good.