Vote-Divider Or Kingmaker? The Owaisi Factor In Bengal And Assam Elections

Months after the AIMIM won five seats in the Bihar Assembly election, its leader and Hyderabad MP, Asaduddin Owaisi, has expanded his eastern campaign to West Bengal and Assam, which have a significant Muslim population. In Bengal, it has tied up with former Trinamool Congress legislator Humayun Kabir's Aam Janata Unnayan Party. AIMIM is not fielding any candidate in Assam, but Owaisi has been campaigning for the Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF.

The Owaisi Factor

Over the past few years, Asaduddin Owaisi's popularity has grown exponentially. His position on national security issues has drawn praise even from his critics and established him as a formidable leader with a nationwide appeal. It is against this backdrop that the AIMIM has been looking to expand its footprint beyond Hyderabad.

For a long time, opposition parties such as Congress dismissed Owaisi as the "B team of BJP", who contested polls to divide the opposition's votes, eventually benefiting the BJP. Owaisi has always trashed such allegations and said the Constitution gives his party the right to contest polls anywhere in the country. In the recently held Rajya Sabha election, Bihar's five AIMIM MLAs voted for the opposition Mahagathbandhan candidate, puncturing the "B team" claim.

The Bengal Battle

In Bengal, Owaisi's AIMIM has tied up with a new party launched by former Trinamool MLA Humayun Kabir. The Aam Janata Unnayan Party-AIMIM alliance may contest around 182 seats, most of them in north Bengal districts such as Murshidabad that have a significant Muslim population.

These districts are known to see strong polarisation in elections, and the entry of AIMIM and Humayun Kabir's party is likely to hurt the Trinamool and benefit the BJP.

With the BJP going all-out to turn the tables in Bengal this time, a division in minority votes may have a critical impact on the result.

The Assam Effort

In Assam, AIMIM has not fielded its own candidates, but is backing Ajmal's AIUDF. In the 2021 state polls, AIUDF was part of an alliance with the Congress. This time, the Grand Old Party has parted ways with AIUDF, with its state chief, Gaurav Gogoi, saying the Congress does not want to ally with a "communal party".

In the 2021 polls, Ajmal's party won 16 Assembly seats in Assam. But in the 2024 general election, Ajmal suffered a massive defeat to Congress's Rakibul Hussain by a margin of 10 lakh votes. As he tries to recover from the setback, Ajmal has joined hands with the AIMIM. Owaisi has been campaigning in Assam despite the AIMIM not contesting a single seat. Ajmal believes that the AIMIM leader's pan-India appeal could boost his party's poll prospects.