4 States, 4 Elections, 4 Potential Crises For Congress Hoping For Poll Wins

Four states - Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu - are scheduled to hold elections in April/May, handing the Congress four opportunities to begin 2026 on a winning note.

And after defeats in the only two full elections last year - Delhi and Bihar - the party needs at least one win to re-establish itself as a relevant player in the national political landscape, particularly with the 2029 Lok Sabha election on the horizon.

But it is not that simple.

Congress' 2026 election hopes

The party is hoping to do well in Kerala on the back of a strong showing in the December 2025 local body election; the Congress-led United Democratic Front, the main opposition, secured over 38 per cent of combined vote share across corporation, municipality, and panchayat polls.

The mood is similarly upbeat in neighbouring Tamil Nadu. The Congress is allied with the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and expects the partnership to ease to a second consecutive term while inflicting another block to the Bharatiya Janata Party's hopes of breaking into the state.

There is, though, some caution over seat-share talks that have yet to begin and are expected to run into trouble over the Congress' demands, which include an active role in the government.

In Bengal and Assam, however, the story is very different.

In Bengal the Congress has decided, again, to fight a solo battle against the ruling Trinamool Congress and the BJP, the main opposition party, each of which is a formidable rival on its own.

It is hard, therefore, to see how the Congress - which failed to win any of the 91 seats it contested in the 2021 election, and lost 9.32 per cent of its vote share - might improve.

But then again, the party has nothing left to lose in Bengal.

Assam presents a separate challenge. The Congress has 29 seats to defend, even if its chances of upstaging the ruling BJP are widely seen as bleak. The task must be to retain those 29 and build on ground support with a view to victory in, perhaps, the 2031 election.

However, in each state the party must be aware of certain problems.

The good news? Kerala, Tamil Nadu

In Kerala the Congress faces a possible face-off between Shashi Tharoor, its four-time Thiruvananthapuram MP, and veteran Ramesh Chennithala, a four-time MP and five-time MLA, over the chief minister's chair, should the party win the election and form the government.

For now, though, there is peace. The party has named Chennithala as the leader of its election campaign and Tharoor as his deputy. Sources told NDTV the party has made it clear there will be no 'face' to its campaign, i.e., it will present a 'collective leadership' pitch to the voters.

The good news is that the Congress has also been boosted by the good showing in local body polls but, just as importantly, it seems to have solved its Shashi Tharoor problem.

Shashi Tharoor and Rahul Gandhi (File)

Tharoor was the centre of controversy after a string of comments interpreted by the party as favouring Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP. The comments, dating back to the Pahalgam attack in April last year, were seen by some as signs Tharoor might switch parties.

But Shashi Tharoor's public support of Rahul Gandhi during the parliament showdown this month - over ex-Army chief General MM Naravane's unpublished memoir - has been seen as a sign the relationship between the Kerala MP and his party is beginning to thaw.

READ | In Tharoor's Vocal Support Of Rahul Gandhi, Signs Of Growing Closeness

Meanwhile, delayed seat-share talks for the Tamil Nadu election seem to have unsettled the Congress' state unit, with whispers now of a surprise re-alignment - with actor Vijay's fledgling Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, a party that has declared the DMK its "political enemy".

The DMK is believed to be upset with some Tamil Nadu Congress leaders - the reference was to Manickam Tagore and Praveen Chakravarty - demanding a guaranteed role in any future government as a condition of continued support. The Tamil party, sources told NDTV, has said it will not discuss seats till the Congress acts against them, as a sign of good faith in the alliance.

MK Stalin and Rahul Gandhi (File)

The Congress' state unit, though, has dismissed any link to Tagore, Chakravarty, or any other leader making statements about the DMK, and urged the Tamil party to come to the table.

READ | "Not Shaky": Congress MP Rejects Strain In 20-Year Alliance With DMK

Either way, i.e., whether the Congress remains allied with the DMK or not, the party should do better than its direct rival, the BJP, which has historically struggled for traction in the state.

In the 2021 election the Congress won 18 seats and the BJP four. Five years earlier the former had won eight (up from five after the 2011 poll) and the latter scored a second straight duck.

The bad news: Assam, Bengal

In Assam, controversy over the future of ex-state unit chief Bhupen Borah has cast a shadow over the Congress' election prep. Borah fired a resignation letter this week that included critical comments about Gaurav Gogoi, his successor as Assam Congress President.

READ | In Bhupen Borah Row, Himanta Sarma's "I Was Forced To Leave" Jab

A 32-year veteran of the Congress and two-time MLA, a disgruntled Borah is also reportedly being courted by the ruling BJP, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma expected to visit him.

Ex-Assam Congress President Bhupen Borah (File)

Emergency firefighting by the Congress, which included Rahul Gandhi talking to Borah, halted his exit thought it did not rule it out. Losing Borah would be a major prestige blow for the Congress before the election, particularly since all of this unfolds days before Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's two-day visit.

And now Bengal. In June 2024 Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury quit as the party's state unit boss, having overseen disastrous Assembly and federal poll results.

Subhankar Sarkar was appointed as his replacement.

Mamata Banerjee and Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury (File)

Now Chowdhury was firmly opposed to the Congress allying with Trinamool boss Mamata Banerjee, repeatedly taking pot shots at the Chief Minister even when their two parties were supposed to be allies, part of the INDIA bloc.

But any thought of Sarkar charting a different course was put to rest after the state unit spurned a tie-up with the Trinamool and even spurned its allies, the Left front.

It is a brave gamble, to be sure, but one that is low-risk after being routed in the last election.

What the past says

This means that in every state holding an election in early 2026 there is some element of strife that threatens to mar the Congress' plans, either internal or with its allies.

And one doesn't have to look too far back to see how internal strife could affect the party.

In the 2024 Haryana election, for example, which the Congress was widely expected to win, squabbling between two of its leaders - Kumari Selja and Bhupendra Singh Hooda - coupled with an inability to work with on-paper allies, the Aam Aadmi Party, cost it a victory.

RECAP | "Arrogant, Overconfident": Allies Twist Knife On Congress' Haryana Loss

A similar scenario played out in Chhattisgarh the year before, with Bhupesh Baghel and TS Singh Deo focused on their rivalry, allowing the BJP to sneak in and steal the state.

The squabble between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan, an epic saga of the deputy (Pilot) trying to steal his boss' (Gehlot) job, is another cautionary tale, leading, as it did, to a BJP win. In each case, then, it transpired that the Congress bore the brunt of internal squabbles.

For the first half of the 2026 election season, then, the Congress must know it can win at least two states (maybe three with Bengal) but only if it stays united internally and with its allies.

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