First, Final Plane Crash Reports Different In Most Cases: Ex Probe Body Head

With speculation reaching a fever pitch after the preliminary probe report of the Air India Dreamliner crash in Ahmedabad was released in the early hours of Saturday, a former director general of the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) has cautioned that the initial findings of aircraft crash investigations and the final findings are different in most cases.

Speaking to NDTV Profit, Group Captain Aurobindo Handa (retd), who handled over 100 such investigations himself - including the August 2020 crash of an Air India Express flight from Dubai to Kozhikode - said this probe will be very difficult for the AAIB because most of the plane has been charred, and the final report could take time.

The Air India Dreamliner 787-8 had crashed into a medical college's hostel in Ahmedabad on June 12, just 32 seconds after taking off. One passenger had miraculously survived, but all the other 241 people on board and at least 20 on the ground were killed.

In its preliminary probe report, the AAIB noted that both engines of the plane had shut down mid-air within seconds of take-off and both fuel cutoff switches, which control the flow of fuel to the engines, moved from 'RUN' to 'CUTOFF' position within a second of each other. 

The report said that in the cockpit voice recording, one pilot can be heard asking, "Why did you cut off?" and the other replies, "I did not do so".

To a question on the time it will take for the final probe report and whether the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO)-recommended 12-month period will be met, Group Captain Handa said the AAIB team will apply the method of elimination and check whether each system was functioning properly. 

"And then they will deliberate on the exact cause or maybe the probable cause of the accident. As of now, even though the report is out, it just contains the facts of what has gone on in those 30-odd seconds. It is nothing conclusive. So we shouldn't jump to the conclusion that this report is moving in this or that direction, because we have seen the initial findings and the final findings are at variance in the majority of the investigations," the former AAIB Director General said. 

On whether the black box, consisting of the Flight Data Recorder and the Cockpit Voice Recorder, will need to be sent to the manufacturer to extract data, Group Captain Handa said he does not think that will be a requirement. 

"I think all the data is available to them, from the startup to the crash. I don't think there is any requirement," he said.

Investigation Details

Asked about how the investigators will go about determining exactly what happened, Group Captain Handa said they will have to simulate all possible scenarios. The Kozhikode accident, he said, "was much clearer to the investigators than this because this aircraft (involved in the Ahmedabad crash) is, I would say, 90 per cent charred. So this will pose a huge challenge."

In Kozhikode, a Boeing 737 had skidded off the runway and broken into two after landing, killing 21 people.  

On the likely timeline for the final report on the Ahmedabad crash, Mr Handa said the process is thorough and will take time. 

"I would request everyone through your medium that we shouldn't be expecting miracles because this aircraft crash investigation is a very long-drawn process and it's a very thorough process. We have to follow a manual which has been given by the ICAO and which has also been adopted by the AAIB," he said. 

The ICAO-recommended time is 12 months, he said, and it is the same for the AAIB. "They will try to hasten it and submit a report as soon as possible because the stakes are very high in this accident. But it can take time, and no one, not even the present director general of the AAIB, can tell you the exact timeline because it will depend on how things are revealed as they delve into the data," Group Captain Handa said.