The rupee depreciated 45 paise to 94.67 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, as Brent crude prices rose back to $101.00 per barrel after US and Iranian forces exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz.

The Thesis

US markets pulled back from records overnight as crude rebounded off midweek lows on softer Iran-deal optimism, and GIFT Nifty points to a gap-down open. Against that backdrop, today's book leans hard into domestic-defensive pharma and selective capex/commodity beneficiaries - themes that decouple from FII outflow pressure as DII absorption stays intact. With VIX still sub-17, the stance is conviction-led, not risk-off.

Where We're Concentrated

A five-stock pharma cluster (biosimilars, formulations, diagnostics) anchors defensiveness; a parallel capex axis spans defence, electricals, and airport infrastructure; commodity-linked names round out the book against the crude rebound. The thesis breaks if FII selling outpaces DII absorption and Nifty loses 24,000 - at that point pharma's relative-value cushion compresses and the capex names re-correlate with risk-off flow.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

GMR Airports

Breadth across momentum, swing and options confirms institutional positioning on India's airport-capex cycle - a domestic theme insulated from overnight global wobble.

UPL

Agrichem leverage to a normal-monsoon setup; pricing power offsets the input-cost drag from this morning's crude rebound.

Defensive Anchor

Biocon

Biosimilars pipeline keeps earnings visibility decoupled from FII flow - the kind of name that holds when Nifty wobbles intraday.

Hindustan Aeronautics

Multi-year defence-capex visibility; momentum signals confirm sustained accumulation while VIX stays contained.

Vedanta

Metals and oil mix benefits directly from the overnight crude rebound; dividend yield cushions any FII-driven drag on the broader tape.

One Thing to Watch

Nifty 50 must hold 24,250 on the gap-down open. A clean break invalidates the book's defensive premise as broad-market correlation rises and pharma's relative-value cushion compresses.

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Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct.

The Nifty closed nearly unchanged yesterday at 24,326, just four points lower after Wednesday's sharp 298-point increase - a pause rather than a trend reversal. Wall Street dipped overnight as profit-taking took hold following the record high, with the S&P 500 falling 0.38%, the Dow down 0.63%, and the Nasdaq dropping 0.13%, despite oil rising sharply on new US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Asian markets are weak this morning, with Japan and Korea opening 0.6-0.7% lower. Brent crude recovered above $101, gold is close to $4,720, and silver remains around $80. GIFT Nifty indicates a weak start. Technically, 24,200 is now key support; falling below this could quickly push the index toward 24,000. Bulls need a daily close above 24,400 to regain upward momentum. Overall, the market shows confidence, with the Nifty Midcap 100 at an all-time high, supporting a buy on dips approach as long as major support levels hold. Sector and stock-specific movements are expected to continue.

At the close on Thursday (May 8), the total market cap of BSE Sensex stood at Rs 4,74,97,885.