The Thesis

With Brent at $94 and India VIX surging 5.5% to 13.29, yesterday's Nifty 500 selloff (−0.89%) was a geopolitical repricing - Day 11 of US-Iran strikes and Strait of Hormuz disruptions - not a domestic earnings deterioration. The strongest multi-sector alignment falls on autos and industrial metals, both driven by India's capex cycle and rural demand rather than global crude pass-through. A flat GIFT Nifty this morning signals the fear discount may already be priced in.

Where We're Concentrated

The basket clusters on two macro-decoupled themes: premium domestic two-wheelers where rural recovery, EV rollout, and export diversification sustain earnings regardless of crude input costs, and infrastructure metals where India's power grid, railway, and renewables capex creates durable demand for steel and aluminium. A weak rupee at ₹96.68 adds an export-margin tailwind for Bajaj's 3-wheeler exports and Hindalco's global operations. The thesis breaks if Brent breaches $97 alongside USD/INR crossing ₹97 - that widens India's import bill and would accelerate FII selling.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

TVS Motor Company

Rural recovery and EV pipeline sustain 2-wheeler momentum as domestic demand absorbs the crude shock.

JSW Steel

Government infrastructure capex holds steel demand firm despite the crude-led risk-off across markets.

Bajaj Auto

Premium motorcycles and 3-wheeler exports hold earnings as a weak rupee expands offshore margin.

Hindalco Industries

Renewable grid build-out and EV rollout sustain aluminium demand independent of crude direction.

One Thing to Watch

Brent above $97 Day 11 of US-Iran strikes and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are the immediate driver - if Brent breaches $97, watch USD/INR and whether the Nifty 500 23,000 zone holds as a structural floor against accelerating FII outflows.

GE Vernova today announced strong financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, driven by sustained global demand for its power and electrification technologies. The company reported orders of US$24.2 billion, up 88% organically year on year, while revenue grew 22% to US$11.1 billion. The quarter also saw significant margin expansion, strong cash generation and a sequential backlog increase of US$13 billion, taking the company's total backlog to US$176 billion. 

The Power business continued to witness robust momentum, with orders rising 134% organically to US$16.7 billion, supported by strong demand for gas power equipment. GE Vernova also signed 20 GW of new gas equipment contracts during the quarter and now expects to have at least 125 GW of gas equipment under contract by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, the Electrification business recorded 66% organic order growth, reflecting sustained investments in grid infrastructure globally, with data centre-related orders exceeding US$5 billion year to date. 

Reflecting its strong first-half performance, GE Vernova has raised its full-year 2026 guidance and now expects revenue of US$45.5-46.5 billion and free cash flow of US$11.5-12.5 billion, underscoring confidence in continued execution and growing global demand for its energy transition technologies.

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Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Gold, silver, and crude oil are advancing together, with gold trading around $4,130 an ounce, silver near $59, and oil approaching $88 a barrel, all at multi-week highs. Markets are increasingly pricing in tighter monetary policy, with expectations for two Federal Reserve rate hikes by March 2027 and nearly a 70% probability of the first increase in September. At the same time, renewed geopolitical tensions after attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea have supported energy prices. Investors should watch whether oil breaks above $90, which could further influence commodities and risk assets.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 remained under pressure for the third consecutive session on Wednesday, declining 191.45 points (0.79%) to settle at 23,996.25, slipping below the key psychological mark of 24,000. The correction was driven by a combination of surging crude oil prices, escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia and persistent foreign institutional selling. Realty, IT, pharma and financial stocks bore the brunt of the decline, while selective buying in auto and FMCG stocks helped limit the downside. Market breadth remained decisively negative, reflecting broad-based weakness across sectors.

Global sentiment also remained cautious. Overnight, US markets ended mixed with a negative bias as the S&P 500 eased 0.14% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.57%, weighed down by higher energy prices and investor caution ahead of earnings from major technology companies including Alphabet and Tesla, while the Dow Jones ended largely unchanged.

Asian markets, however, opened on a stronger footing this morning, led by gains in Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi on renewed optimism in semiconductor stocks. Despite the positive regional cues, Brent crude remains the key monitor, climbing 3.4% to $94.07 per barrel, its highest level in five weeks. Sustained strength in crude could keep inflation concerns elevated and weigh on India's macro outlook. GIFT Nifty, trading near 23,910, indicates a weak opening for domestic equities.

Technically, the near-term bias remains cautious as long as the Nifty trades below 24,150. Immediate support is placed around 23,950, and a decisive breach of this level could accelerate the decline towards 23,800, which coincides with the recent swing low and the 50-day EMA. On the upside, any meaningful easing in crude prices and improvement in global risk sentiment could trigger a relief rally towards the 24,300-24,350 zone.

Gaurav Udani, Founder - Thincredblu Securities

"Nifty is expected to open lower around 23,900, down nearly 100 points, indicating a cautious start amid weak global cues.

With Sensex weekly expiry today, traders should be prepared for heightened volatility and sharp intraday swings as derivatives positions are adjusted through the session.

Technically, 23,800-23,900 remains the immediate support zone. Holding this range will be important to prevent further downside, while 24,100-24,200 continues to act as the key resistance area. A breakout on either side is likely to determine the market's next directional move.

Given the expiry setup and ongoing global uncertainty, traders should avoid aggressive positions at the open and focus on disciplined, level-based execution. Expect volatility to remain elevated throughout the trading session."

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin traded near $65,800 on Thursday, down about 1% over 24 hours, as the market consolidated after its recent advance. Immediate support lies around $65,500, followed by $65,000. A break below this region could expose the stronger on-chain demand shelf near $63,000. Resistance is visible around $66,500-$67,000, while the short-term-holder cost basis near $69,000 remains the more consequential hurdle.

On-chain conditions are improving, although the recovery remains narrow. Around 10% of Bitcoin's supply has a cost basis near $63,000. This could provide a strong support zone if prices decline. Exchange inflows have fallen to a fraction of their early-June peak, indicating that immediate selling pressure has eased. However, recent accumulation has been concentrated among wallets holding 1,000-10,000 BTC, while broader wallet participation remains limited.

US spot Bitcoin ETF demand has strengthened materially. After a $424.7 million outflow on July 13, funds recorded six consecutive positive sessions between July 14 and July 21, attracting a combined $930.2 million. July 22 showed a preliminary inflow of only $3.8 million, with several major fund figures still unavailable.

Large-cap altcoins were mildly weaker. Ethereum declined about 0.3% to $1,929, BNB lost 0.5% to $570, XRP slipped 0.4% to $1.14, Solana fell 0.5% to $77.88, and TRON was nearly unchanged at $0.329. The limited moves indicate consolidation rather than broad altcoin capitulation.

The July 28-29 Federal Reserve meeting remains the key macro catalyst. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the policy rate to remain at 3.50%-3.75%, although oil above $94 and the US 10-year Treasury yield near 4.66% have revived inflation and rate-hike concerns.

Our advice: Investors should avoid chasing Bitcoin near resistance. Staggered accumulation and disciplined position sizing remain preferable until Bitcoin clears $69,000 with sustained spot and ETF demand.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

Global markets are displaying a mixed-to-cautious tone. US equities weakened after major technology earnings, cryptocurrencies consolidated near important resistance levels, while gold remained supported by geopolitical uncertainty but constrained by higher Treasury yields and a firm dollar. Rising oil prices remain the principal cross-asset risk.

In crypto, Bitcoin's four-hour structure remains bullish above the $64,150-$64,950 support zone. A confirmed breakout above $67,200 could open the path toward $68,000, while a loss of $64,150 may expose $62,500-$63,000. Ethereum continues to show stronger relative momentum above $1,880. Acceptance above $1,950 could target $1,975-$2,000, whereas $1,850-$1,880 remains the key pullback zone.

In metals, gold is benefiting from escalating US-Iran tensions and risks to regional shipping. However, rising bond yields are limiting gains. XAUT requires a sustained break above $4,150 to target $4,180-$4,205. Immediate support lies near $4,100, followed by the stronger $4,045-$4,080 zone.

Wall Street closed cautiously, Alphabet delivered strong revenue and 82% cloud growth, but higher capital-expenditure guidance and negative free cash flow concerned investors. Its tokenized perpetual fell roughly 7% at its weakest point before partially recovering. Tesla's tokenized perpetual declined around 4% after an earnings miss, weaker automotive margins and negative free cash flow.

CoinSwitch Markets Desk

BTC's rebound is approaching a key resistance zone near $70K, where profit-taking and selling from long-term holders could slow further gains. BTC is currently trading around $66K, but demand remains uneven, leaving the market vulnerable to another pullback. At the same time, options traders have built nearly $2.5 billion in positions targeting $72K by the end of July, pointing to expectations of increased volatility around the upcoming Fed meeting. A sustained move above $70K would improve momentum, but stronger ETF inflows or another major catalyst may still be needed to confirm a broader recovery.

Nischal Shetty, founder, WazirX

"Bitcoin is trading around $65,790, with the daily technical outlook remaining neutral as buyers and sellers stay evenly matched. Moving averages lean bullish, while mixed oscillator signals suggest traders are awaiting a decisive breakout. Ethereum is trading near $1,926, with the daily outlook shifting to Buy as moving averages strengthen, although neutral oscillators indicate traders are still seeking stronger confirmation.

On the regulatory front, A revised Senate draft of the CLARITY Act includes restrictions on senior federal officials issuing or sponsoring digital assets.

Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics announced plans to integrate stablecoin support into Samsung Wallet, expanding its digital asset capabilities.

In Asia, Japan's Financial Services Agency is preparing reforms that could pave the way for crypto-focused investment trusts and ETFs by 2028.

Bitcoin's immediate support lies around $64,800-$65,200, with traders watching $66,500-$67,000 as the next resistance. For Ethereum, $1,880-$1,900 remains key support, while $2,000 is the next major resistance for futures traders."

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Bitcoin is consolidating around the $65,800 level as investors balance strong institutional demand against persistent macroeconomic headwinds. Heavy AI-related spending by major technology companies on data centres, power infrastructure, and advanced chips is adding to inflation concerns, keeping bond yields elevated and limiting upside for risk assets. Geopolitical risks have also intensified after Iran's exports were blocked. Despite this, institutional interest remains resilient, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording a sixth consecutive day of net inflows, adding $203 million on Tuesday and taking the total to nearly $930 million. Bitcoin needs to clear close above $66,500 to regain momentum, while $65,300 is the level to hold.

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At the close on Wednesday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,80,05,069.