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Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Direct

Indian equities are set to open higher, with early trends on GIFT Nifty indicating a roughly 0.5% gain (up 124 points to 24,202) following an overnight rebound on Wall Street and broad-based gains across Asian markets.

​The anticipated bounce comes after the benchmark Nifty 50 logged its seventh consecutive decline on Wednesday, falling 76.60 points (0.32%) to finish at 24,078.30. Market breadth remained weak in the previous session-with 34 of the 50 index constituents declining-as weakness in energy and defence offset marginal gains in the IT sector.

​Global Cues Turn Supportive

​Wall Street Rebounds: US indices halted a three-day losing streak after the US Treasury announced plans to more than double long-dated debt buybacks, pulling the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.65%. The S&P 500 gained 0.21%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 120 points.

Asian Rally: Regional markets mirrored the positive sentiment, with Japan's Nikkei 225 climbing 1.5% and South Korea's Kospi surging over 5%.

​Commodity Pressure: Brent crude continues to trade elevated near $91.90 per barrel amid ongoing Middle East tensions, remaining a critical headwind for domestic inflation and corporate margins.

​Technical Outlook

While the short-term bias leans cautiously positive, the market undertone remains guarded below the crucial 24,300 mark.

​Support: Immediate support sits at 24,000, with a decisive breach exposing downside risks toward 23,800.

​Resistance: A sustained breakout above 24,300 is needed to confirm a recovery toward the 24,450 zone, with any potential softening in crude prices likely serving as a key catalyst.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin approached a decisive point on August 20 and traded near $69,600 after rising about 8.2% in 24 hours. The price briefly touched $70,000, a level it had not reached since early June 2026. The 24-hour range of $64,111-$69,997 shows how abruptly the market shifted from caution to aggressive buying.

The first trigger came from the US Treasury, which increased certain long-dated bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation from September 9. The second came from traders who had positioned for a decline with nearly $1.4 billion in crypto short positions liquidated within 4 hours. An 8.2% rise driven partly by forced buying can travel quickly, but it still requires fresh investor money to hold.

ETF flows provide some evidence that new money is returning. US spot-Bitcoin ETFs lost a combined $385.2 million between 10 and 14 August. However, it attracted $651 million over the next 3 trading sessions. The sequence included $297.5 million on 17 August, $189.3 million on 18 August and an initially reported $164.2 million on 19 August. Total inflows between 3 and 19 August reached approximately $1.13 billion, giving the rally a firmer base than short covering alone could provide.

The price levels now offer a straightforward test. The average purchase price of Bitcoin held by recent investors is about $68,500, which means many of them have only just returned to profit at the current price of $69,600. Holding above $68,500 would reduce the likelihood that these investors sell merely to recover their capital. A convincing move beyond $70,000 could then take Bitcoin towards $75,800-$76,000, where another large group of investors is likely to consider selling.

The wider blockchain picture is encouraging without being exuberant. Bitcoin's average acquisition price across the circulating supply is approximately $52,685, leaving the market price about 32% above that level. Unrealised losses during the 2026 downturn peaked at about 25% of market value, compared with more than 60% during deeper historical declines. The figures suggest that investors have faced pressure in 2026, but not the widespread distress usually seen at the end of severe bear markets.

Actual selling behaviour carries a similar message. Investors are currently realising about $0.75 in profits for every $1 in losses, showing that loss-making sales still exceed profitable ones. Previous market bottoms have often pushed this figure below $0.50, while recoveries have appeared more secure after it moved above $2. The present reading therefore supports an improving market, but not one that has fully left its downturn behind.

The strength has spread beyond Bitcoin, lifting the total crypto market value by about 8.3% to $2.38 trillion. Ethereum rose 18.6% to approximately $2,266, while XRP gained 11.5% to $1.11 and Solana advanced 11.2% to $85.28. BNB increased 3.8% to about $626, but TRON added only 0.4% to $0.3337. Ethereum's 18.6% gain against Bitcoin's 8.2% rise shows that investors are becoming more willing to take risks, although 1 strong session does not establish a sustained altcoin rally.

The main uncertainty comes from interest rates. The US Federal Reserve held its policy range at 3.50%-3.75% in July through a 9-3 vote, with the 3 dissenters preferring a 25-basis-point increase. The next inflation test arrives on 26 August, when the US releases July PCE data after headline inflation stood at 3.7% and core inflation at 3.3% in June. Both readings remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% objective.

The calendar remains crowded after August 26, with the Jackson Hole symposium scheduled for August 27-29, the US employment report due on September 4, CPI inflation on September 11 , and the next Federal Reserve decision on September 16. Any renewed rise in inflation or bond yields could test a Bitcoin rally that has benefited from easier financial conditions over the latest 24 hours.

Our advice: For investors, the August 20 move improves the outlook but does not justify chasing an 8.2% daily rise. Staggered purchases, smaller position sizes and close attention to the $68,500 level would offer a more measured response while the market decides whether $70,000 is a breakthrough or another temporary ceiling.

Harish Vatnani, Head of Trade, ZebPay

"The Federal Reserve's latest minutes revealed a deeper divide over interest rates, with three officials favoring a rate hike at the July 29 meeting. The Fed ultimately held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but the split highlights growing uncertainty over the path of monetary policy. The minutes also indicated that Chairman Kevin Warsh has floated the possibility of reducing the number of Fed meetings to six per year, potentially making monetary-policy decisions less frequent but more significant for markets. 

Officials pointed to several inflation risks, including the potential impact of the Middle East conflict on supply costs, while others noted that the effects of previous tariffs had largely worked through the economy. The outlook for AI-driven productivity and inflation was also divided, with some officials seeing the AI boom as an inflationary force in the near term, while others expect it to lower costs and ease inflation over time. 

Meanwhile, the crypto derivatives market experienced a sharp sell-off, with around $1.3 billion in futures positions liquidated across major exchanges. Bitcoin accounted for the largest share of liquidations, followed by Ethereum, as a sudden price move triggered widespread leveraged-position closures. The episode underscores the market's vulnerability to sharp volatility amid elevated leverage and growing uncertainty around the Fed's next moves."

Vaishali Patel, Senior Manager - Research- Technical Department at Jainam

Nifty opened on a flat note but selling led the index downwards to end in red. Nifty closed at 24078 with a loss of 77 (-0.32%) points. U.S. stocks rose overnight after the U.S. Treasury Department announced a move that could ease pressure coming from the bond market.
Asian markets are trading mixed to cautious, Japanese stocks remain hot, with the Nikkei 225 continuing to trounce the U.S. equities market this year as it posted a fresh record peak. Crude Oil is trading firm around 8,218, up about 0.90%, keeping energy prices elevated. GIFT Nifty is trading around 24,213.50, up roughly 0.53%, positive opening signal versus the previous Nifty close.

Technically, Nifty 50 remains under short-term pressure after facing resistance near the 24,800 zone and slipping below its 10-day and 20-day moving averages. The recent correction has weakened momentum, with RSI falling below the neutral 50 mark. However, the broader structure continues to show resilience as the index is still maintaining a higher-low formation and trading above its rising trendline support. The immediate support is placed at 23,900-23,800, which remains a crucial level for the bulls. A sustained hold above this zone could trigger a rebound towards 24,300-24,400. On the upside, 24,800 remains the key hurdle for a revival of bullish momentum. A breach of 23,600, however, could accelerate selling pressure towards 23,300 and lower levels. Overall, the bias remains short-term corrective but medium-term cautiously bullish as long as 23,800-23600 holds.

Disclaimer: Investments in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. This content is for educational purposes only. For more details click on https://www.jainam.in/disclaimer/

Vikaas M Sachdeva - Chief Executive Officer, BitDelta India

The SEC proposal is significant, but it is important not to confuse a proposal with a settled regulatory position. There is no direct regulatory impact on India at this stage, and the eventual shape of the U.S. framework will only become clear after the consultation and rule-making process.

Its relevance for India is therefore more strategic than immediate. India has already moved well beyond a regulatory vacuum. Mandatory FIU-IND registration brings VDA service providers undertaking notified activities within a formal AML/CFT and reporting framework, with obligations around KYC, transaction monitoring, record keeping and suspicious transaction reporting.

The interesting question for India is what comes next. The compliance perimeter is increasingly established; the next phase could be about giving greater clarity to the market itself,  including token issuance, custody, stablecoins, tokenised assets, investor protection and market conduct.

The SEC's approach will be an important global reference point, but India should not simply import another jurisdiction's regulatory architecture. The opportunity is to develop a framework that is risk-based, technology-neutral and suited to India's own market realities. So, while the SEC proposal does not create an immediate consequence for India, it does add momentum to a global shift towards greater regulatory clarity for virtual digital assets a conversation India cannot afford to be a bystander to."

We would be happy to coordinate an interaction with Vikaas on this. Please let us know if we  can take it forward.

The Thesis
India's domestic institutions absorbed ₹3,974 Cr of Wednesday's selling pressure, rotating into government capex and energy infrastructure - the two pillars of India's accelerated spending cycle. With Brent near $92 on Hormuz supply fears and VIX at a calm 11.46, crude headwinds are being priced without panic - keeping defense and PSU engineering as the rational hedge. GIFT Nifty at 0.08% this morning confirms: a muted open that lets infrastructure names find their footing.

Where We're Concentrated
Conviction clusters around defense and heavy engineering anchored to India's capex budget, and energy security infrastructure as natural gas adoption accelerates to reduce crude dependence. PSU banking funds the cycle. The thesis breaks if Brent clears $95: rupee toward ₹96, widening current account deficit, and thin FII flows that flip sharply negative.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
Larsen & Toubro
Defense and infrastructure orders accelerating as government spending paces ahead of mid-year budget targets.
Bharat Electronics
Defense electronics in structural upcycle; indigenous procurement mandates extend order book visibility into FY28.
PETRONET LNG
India's LNG gateway; long-term offtake contracts insulate throughput revenues as spot markets chase Brent higher.
State Bank of India
PSU credit engine powering capex disbursements; domestic institutional buying and government inflows support expansion.
Chennai Petroleum
Downstream refinery positioned for GRM expansion as product crack spreads widen with crude firm at $92.
One Thing to Watch
Brent above $95. Four consecutive sessions of gains have crude at $91.86/bbl on Hormuz supply fears; a close above $95 tips the current account calculus, intensifying rupee pressure and threatening to flip the thin FII bid negative.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX

"Global macro conditions remain constructive for crypto as US Treasury buybacks lowered 10-year and 30-year yields to 4.64% and 5.18%, improving bond liquidity and risk appetite. The dollar's 0.76% decline further supports demand for dollar-denominated digital assets. However, UK inflation at 2.9% and Brent crude above $92 may delay monetary easing. Federal Reserve officials remain open to higher rates, although markets see limited tightening ahead. Overall, liquidity signals support crypto, while energy-driven inflation remains the main constraint on near-term momentum.

Bitcoin trades near $69,673.80 with a constructive daily structure. Immediate support sits around $69,000-69,300, while $69,700-$70,000 forms the first resistance zone. Holding support could preserve buyer control, whereas a sustained move above $70,000 may strengthen momentum. A drop below $69,000 would shift attention to secondary support around $68,500-$68,800 over the coming sessions.

Ethereum trades near $2,265.43 with a constructive daily structure. Immediate support lies around $2,240-$2,250, while $2,270-$2,300 forms the first resistance band, with $2,300 also serving as the nearest psychological level. Holding support could maintain momentum, while Futures traders may monitor volume, open interest, and funding rates before treating a resistance test above $2,300 as confirmed.

HYPE trades near $69.22 with a bullish daily structure, supported by strong moving-average signals, although RSI near 71 indicates stretched momentum. Immediate support lies around $68.50-$69, while $70-$71 forms the first resistance zone. Holding support could preserve buyer control; losing it would shift attention toward secondary support around $67-$68 initially.

Global risk appetite improved as US equities advanced, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining between 0.16% and 0.22%, while the VIX fell 6%. Asian markets were broadly positive, led by South Korea's 5.63% rally, alongside gains in Japan, Hong Kong and Shanghai. Gold and oil rose modestly, indicating balanced commodity demand. Stronger equities and lower volatility provide a constructive backdrop for crypto participation and potential capital rotation into digital assets globally.

Institutional demand strengthened this week as US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $486.9 million across two reported sessions, including $189.3 million in the latest session. Ethereum ETFs added $71.5 million, reflecting renewed demand for regulated crypto exposure. Bitcoin subsequently moved above $69,000, while Ethereum crossed $2,100. However, ETF purchases were only part of the move, as falling Treasury yields, dollar weakness and short liquidations also accelerated prices. Exchange selling and derivatives positioning can still delay the effect of institutional inflows."

Gaurav Udani- Founder ThinCredBlu 

Nifty is expected to open higher around 24,180, up nearly 100 points, indicating a positive start after the recent weakness.

However, with Sensex expiry today, traders should be prepared for heightened volatility and sharp intraday swings, particularly around key technical levels.

24,000-24,100 remains the immediate support zone, while 24,300-24,400 will act as the key resistance range. A sustained move above 24,400 could trigger fresh buying and improve the short-term outlook.

Given the expiry-related volatility, traders should avoid chasing the opening move and focus on price action around key levels. A disciplined, level-based approach with strict risk management is advisable.

US-Iran War: India's relationship with Iran is not just about energy. Indian companies sell a range of products in the Iranian market. Read full report here