Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Oil rose to around $85 a barrel for a third consecutive session after the 60-day US-Iran interim agreement formally expired, with President Trump signalling no interest in an extension. However, the price reaction remains measured despite Strait of Hormuz traffic falling to zero transits on Sunday as Gulf producers reportedly continue moving significant volumes through alternative routes. Gold remains above $4,400 an ounce and silver above $66, supported by softer US economic data and September Fed rate-hike expectations falling to 30-33% from nearly 50% a week ago. Investors now await Wednesday's Fed minutes and Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech to gauge the market direction.

The Thesis
Even as Brent tests $89 on the US-Iran MOU expiry and Hormuz closure risk returns, India's domestic cycle refused to blink - Nifty 500 slipped just 0.13% and VIX held at 11.29 through the noise. Conviction today clusters around India's wealth infrastructure - premium real estate and financial services - alongside clean energy capex that a supply-shock environment only accelerates. With DII flows staying constructive and GIFT Nifty flat at 0.06%, Tuesday is a day to let domestic compounders work.

Where We're Concentrated
The dominant theme is domestic India building independent of global oil stress. Oberoi Realty and Motilal Oswal anchor the HNI wealth cycle - real estate premium and AMC/brokerage compounding - while Inox Wind rides the capex wave that Iran-driven energy security urgency accelerates. M&M and Chennai Petroleum provide cyclical depth through auto demand resilience and refining crack spreads. The thesis cracks if Brent extends past $92-95, INR slips past Rs 85/USD, and RBI is forced to choose between growth and inflation once more.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
Oberoi Realty
Mumbai premium residential riding domestic HNI wealth; VIX at 11.29 flags contained fear even as crude approaches $89.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Domestic wealth management compounding through market chop; DII's staying constructive signals rising equity participation.
Inox Wind
Iran supply tensions sharpen India's push for domestic wind capex; PLI backing converts energy security urgency into order books.
Mahindra & Mahindra
SUV market leadership and rural demand momentum keep the auto cycle intact; Brent at $89 is priced in, not a cycle-breaker.
Chennai Petroleum Corporation
Crack spread expansion as Brent tests $89; domestic fuel demand remains robust and complex refining gives feedstock flexibility.
One Thing to Watch
Brent $90 break. If the US-Iran Hormuz standoff pushes crude past $92, INR slips beyond ₹85 and rate-cut expectations reset - domestic compounders stay intact but valuations compress on the margin.

Gaurav Udani, Founder - Thincredblu Securities

"Nifty is expected to open lower around 24,200, down nearly 80 points, indicating a weak start.

With weekly expiry today, traders should be prepared for higher volatility and sharp intraday swings, particularly around key support and resistance levels.

Technically, 24,200-24,100 will act as the immediate support zone. A sustained break below this range could increase selling pressure, while 24,400-24,500 will act as the immediate resistance zone.

After the recent weakness, traders need to remain cautious and avoid chasing moves at the open. The expiry setup could amplify both upside and downside moves, so a strict, level-based approach with disciplined risk management is advisable."

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 extended its losing run to a fifth straight session on Monday, slipping 78 points (0.32%) to settle at 24,287.65, as IT majors led the retreat - HCL Tech, Infosys and TCS fell over 2% - while metals and private banks cushioned the fall. Elevated crude, with Brent near $91 on unresolved Iran tensions, kept sentiment guarded. Wall Street mirrored the caution: the S&P 500 shed 0.52% and the Dow fell 272 points as the expired US-Iran ceasefire lifted oil and pushed 30-year yields to a two-decade high; the Nasdaq eased a milder 0.32% on AI-led chip strength.

Asian markets are shrugging off that caution - the Kospi is up over 2%, Shanghai and Hang Seng both firmer by over 1%, while the Nikkei is marginally lower. Gold has extended its rally to $4,492/oz, up 0.4%, and silver has gained 0.5% on softer US rate-hike bets; Brent near $91 remains a headwind for India's import bill. GIFT Nifty near 24,315 points to a flat-to-mildly-positive open, 28 points above Monday's close.

With the gap negligible, the undertone stays cautious below the 24,450-24,500 resistance band, above which 24,650 comes into play. Immediate support is at 24,150; a break exposes 24,000. A let-up in crude or Middle East tensions is the trigger needed to snap the streak.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

Crypto markets recovered over the past 24 hours, but the move remains a rebound rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Bitcoin rose from the low-$63,000 region to around $64,500, while Ether moved from $1,870 toward $1,915 before both faced selling pressure.
Derivatives activity increased, with 24-hour trading volume more than doubling and liquidations exceeding $200 million. Open interest rose only slightly, suggesting short covering and position unwinding drove part of the rebound rather than fresh leverage.
Bitcoin remains supported above $63,500-$63,900, while $64,500-$65,200 is the key resistance zone. A break above this range could extend the recovery and trigger more short covering. Ether faces resistance around $1,903-$1,925, with momentum easing after the rebound.
Macro conditions remain important. Softer US economic data has supported risk assets, while higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty continue to affect the inflation outlook. Ahead of the FOMC minutes, crypto remains sensitive to rate expectations, Treasury yields and risk sentiment.

Nischal Shetty, founder, WazirX

"Global macro conditions are becoming more supportive for crypto as reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening weaken the dollar and lower short-term Treasury yields. This improves liquidity conditions and investor appetite for Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, Brent crude near $91 keeps inflation risks elevated, potentially delaying monetary easing. Long-term borrowing costs also remain restrictive, with the US 30-year Treasury yield near 5.3% and Japan's 10-year yield at 2.93%, increasing competition for institutional capital. Overall, easing US policy expectations and a weaker dollar strengthen the outlook for crypto, while Bitcoin's resilience amid elevated oil prices and bond yields highlights sustained investor demand.

Bitcoin continues to trade near $64,135, with the daily technical setup showing a mild bearish bias as the momentum offsets mixed moving averages. The $63,740-$64,000 area represents immediate support, while $64,150-$64,300 forms the first resistance zone. For futures traders, a sustained move above $64,300, supported by stronger volume and open interest, could indicate improving participation.

Ethereum is trading near $1,898, with its daily technical structure remaining comparatively constructive despite mixed momentum indicators. Immediate support is concentrated around $1,885-$1,893, while $1,917-$1,920 represents the first resistance band ahead of the psychological $2,000 level. Holding above support while testing resistance could strengthen positioning, although futures traders may seek confirmation through volume and funding rates.

Global risk appetite remained selective as US equities eased, with the Dow and S&P 500 declining about 0.5%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.32%. Asian performance was mixed, although South Korea's KOSPI gained a strong 1.55%. Gold declined 0.41%, suggesting limited demand for traditional defensive assets, while oil rose 0.59%. Despite softer equities and a higher VIX, crypto remained comparatively resilient, indicating that investor participation and demand for digital assets continue to hold firm.

Institutional ETF activity moderated last week, with US spot Bitcoin funds recording $389.7 million in net outflows, their largest weekly withdrawal in roughly six weeks. Ethereum ETFs posted a limited $2.26 million outflow, while cumulative inflows remained near $11.45 billion and assets stood around $10.52 billion. Bitcoin held near $64,000, and Ethereum remained near $1,900, suggesting spot buying, holder accumulation, and derivatives activity absorbed ETF selling. This resilience suggests consolidation, rather than a broad institutional retreat from crypto markets."

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin traded near $64,170 on Tuesday morning, gaining about 1.9% over 24 hours, as the market recovered from Monday's weakness. The 24-hour range was approximately $62,966-$64,548. Immediate support remains around $63,000, followed by $62,000, while resistance lies near $64,500, with the $65,000-$66,000 zone remaining the stronger recovery hurdle.

The latest on-chain picture remains cautious despite the price rebound. Spot volumes and transaction throughput continue to contract, indicating weak liquidity and limited market conviction. Leverage has increased moderately, but perpetual-futures flows have become more sell-side while funding remains positive. Options markets are also maintaining relatively expensive downside protection. Realised losses continue to exceed profit-taking, although the pace of broader capital outflows is beginning to moderate.

Institutional demand is showing tentative signs of recovery. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $865.3 million between August 3 and 7. They then recorded approximately $385.2 million in net outflows between August 10 and 14. On August 17, preliminary data showed a $137.3 million inflow. Fidelity led the inflows with $111.9 million.

Large-cap altcoins were mostly steady to higher. Ethereum gained about 0.5% to $1,899, BNB was nearly unchanged near $604, XRP traded around $1.00, and Solana rose 0.9% to $75.76. TRON slipped about 0.4% to $0.331. The relatively small moves indicate that a broad altcoin rotation has yet to emerge.

The macro backdrop remains supportive but complicated. 94 of 104 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75% in September, while market pricing implies roughly a 70% probability of a hold. However, Brent crude has risen above $91 and the US 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.73% as US-Iran tensions intensify. Fed minutes on August 19 and July PCE inflation on August 26 are the next important catalysts.

Our advice: Investors should avoid chasing the rebound near resistance. Staggered accumulation, limited leverage and disciplined position sizing remain preferable until Bitcoin clears $64,500-$66,000 with stronger spot and sustained ETF demand.

BTC climbed from $63K to around $64.3K as buyers stepped in after an early dip. BTC later reclaimed the $63.5K-$64K zone and briefly approached $64.5K. Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz kept oil prices elevated and broader risk sentiment cautious. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded around $390 million in net outflows last week. Attention is now turning to upcoming U.S. regulatory discussions involving crypto industry leaders and the delayed CLARITY Act. Near term, $64K is key support, while $64.5K remains the immediate resistance. 

Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex

Bitcoin has broken out of its recent $63,000 range, climbing above $64,000, as shifting macro conditions improve risk appetite. September Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations have fallen to around 30%, down from as high as 75% in late July, following weak retail sales with signs of a softer labour market. However, on-chain data points to renewed selling pressure. Santiment's data shows the "Bitcoin exchange drain" has reversed, with investors returning 84% of the coins withdrawn earlier this month, lifting exchange balances to 1.33 million BTC. This suggests more coins could be available for sale, keeping $61,000 as a key support level and $65,000 as the immediate resistance level. 

Vaishali Patel, Senior Manager - Research- Technical Department at Jainam

Nifty opened with a negative note, extending its losing streak to five sessions and closed at 24288 with a loss of 78(-0.32%) points. U.S. markets closed lower overnight, with the Dow falling 0.51%, S&P 500 declining 0.52% and Nasdaq slipping 0.31%, as rising crude prices.  

Asian markets are trading mixed to cautious, tracking weak Wall Street cues and higher oil prices. Japan and other regional markets remain sensitive to movements in U.S. bond yields. 
Crude Oil is trading firm around 8,063, up about 2.45%, keeping energy prices elevated. International crude is also holding near elevated levels amid continuing geopolitical uncertainty which remain a concern for India as they could increase inflation and pressure the rupee. GIFT Nifty is trading around 24,321, down roughly 0.22%, indicating a cautious opening for Indian equities.  

Technically, the index has formed a small Bearish candle with shadows on either side indicating indecisiveness amongst participants regarding the direction on the daily chart. the index is testing the 24,200-24,300 support zone. A sustained hold above this area could trigger a recovery towards 24,500-24,650, while a decisive break below 24,200 may extend the correction towards 24,000-23,850. The near-term bias remains cautious to range-bound, with elevated crude prices and global geopolitical uncertainty likely to keep volatility high. Traders may prefer a buy-on-dips approach only near strong support, while waiting for confirmation above resistance.

Stock Market Today: Since August 3,the final price is determined through a closing auction that runs until a random point between 3:28 pm and 3:30 pm. Read full report here

At the close on Monday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,92,19,702.