There's been a lot of news around the Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal recently. New appointments. Big
rath yatras. Mega-rallies planned with central leaders. Pressers, protests and backroom maneuvers. Such news tends to feed the hype of an upcoming saffron surge in the state, ahead of state elections.
But figures seldom lie. The party logged its best ever performance in West Bengal in the 2014 national elections, with 16.8% of the vote share, but was wiped out in the state's civic polls in 2015 with not a single civic body won (out of 95 that polled in April and October) and only 7 of 144 wards in the Kolkata Municipal Corporation (in the 2014 national elections, it led in over 25 ward segments).
Here's why things may not get much better. The West Bengal BJP seems to have one game plan: communal polarization. The party hopes to set itself up as a counterpoint to Trinamool Congress Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's "Muslim appeasement". Banerjee's government has, among other things, given doles to imams, stipends to muezzins, bicycles to Muslim students, prevented the telecast of a TV serial written by Taslima Nasreen, and announced that the Aliah University in Kolkata would be renamed the 'Aliah Madrasah University' (following a protest this wasn't implemented). The BJP, in turn, has been screaming itself hoarse about illegal immigration, Muslim terror and the Trinamool's "appeasement politics" for over a year.
More recently, in what is being seen by party members as an all out Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) takeover, it appointed RSS man Dilip Ghosh - who was brought into the West Bengal BJP little over a year ago from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands - as state president. Insiders say Ghosh was not even on the list of prospective candidates, which was made up only of names like Subhash Sarkar and Chandan Mitra - old party members - till the last minute. His appointment has been followed not just by new youth and women's wing heads, but also a complete restructuring of the district committees, something Ghosh is overseeing himself. Simultaneously, there are reports of new RSS
shakhas springing up in the state.
Just in time. 2016 began with the Kaliachowk riots in Malda, where a Muslim protest turned shockingly violent, leading to widespread vandalisation and many injuries. "It was the BSF versus the people," said Chief Minister Banerjee, blatantly trying to gloss over the event. "There is no such communal incident or tension." Now, with BJP state-in-charge Kailash Vijayvargiya making statements like, "West Bengal will become another mini-Bangladesh," and "The minority community is somewhere linked to all these (antisocial) incidents", polarization from both sides is set to escalate further.
This may not work, at least not in time for the 2016 assembly polls, for various reasons.
First, history. The partition of Bengal may have created fault lines in the state along religious lines, but there was a conscious effort on the part of various artists, intellectuals and politicians, at various points in history (Reunification in 1911, the United Bengal Plan at the time of independence), to ensure these fault lines don't deepen. After the Left (CPI and CPM) took over West Bengal, they created new, often violent divides along political lines (dividing Congress and Left supporters and cadres), but religious communalization took a backseat.
Second, culture. There are fewer cultural differences between Hindus and Muslims in West Bengal than in many other parts of India (most Bengali Hindus, for instance, are non-vegetarian). Even geographically, the divisions between Hindu and Muslim villages and areas in West Bengal are hardly as distinct (with exceptions) as in some other parts of the country (in the Hindi belt, for instance).
And thirdly, let's return to the figures. Reportedly, over 30% of West Bengal's population is Muslim (27.1 as per the 2011 census). Muslims make up a sizeable number in most districts, the majority in a few. Contrast this with Gujarat, where the BJP ran a successful polarizing campaign in 2002. According to the 2001 census, Muslims comprised only 9.1% of the state. So the "Gujarat model" for communal polarization, that was implemented by the RSS and BJP in other states as well, may not be as easily importable here.
Why doesn't the BJP have a Plan B for West Bengal? The party has hardly any cadres in the state. A vast section of crowds you may have seen at recent BJP rallies are often bussed in from neighbouring states like Jharkhand. But for state elections in West Bengal which, for a few decades now, have been marked by more instances of violence and booth capturing than many other Indian states, you need enough workers to guard every polling station (2011 had 70,125). The TMC has assured cadre for this throughout the state, because of a system of hefty doles to sports clubs (for instance, early last year Banerjee announced Rs 150 crores for 7,000 clubs) and tacit support to local syndicates who run illegal businesses or extortion rackets. The clubhouses, like the Shiv Sena affiliated
mitra mandals in Maharashtra, serve as nodal points for party workers to collect and organise themselves (they are mostly located close to booths, often they become polling stations themselves). The Left too, has its old cadre network through which it hopes to mobilize remaining supporters. The BJP hasn't so far built any structure of the kind.
Also, it has failed to conduct any lasting mediatized anti-establishment campaign like Banerjee had done with issues such as Nandigram, Singur and Rizwanur. This despite there being many opportunities, such as the Saradha Scam and rampant law and order problems in the state.
The key reason for its failure to build and oppose has been faulty leadership. Rahul Sinha, President till December last year, was unable to control infighting within the party. Siddharth Nath Singh, the BJP's
prabhari (state-in-charge) became the party's most visible face in media and on the street.
Prabharis are meant to work behind the scenes, bring fresh ideas to state units and, objectively resolve disputes between factions. This is why they are often not from the state they are placed in charge of. But Singh taking centre stage created a whole new faction within the party as well as resentment among party workers and voters- they didn't want to be dictated to by an outsider.
To fill the leadership void, the party has brought in celebrities in key positions as candidates and officials. Rupa Ganguly, film actor, Women's Wing Head. Babul Supriyo, playback singer, Lok Sabha MP. Sharbari Mukherjee, TV actor, candidate for Kolkata Municipal Corporation. The Trinamool did this too to ornament their party structure. But ornamentation isn't a substitute for substantive political leadership.
The Modi Wave of 2014 gave West Bengal BJP a big impetus. But instead of using that momentum to quickly put down roots and grow a presence, the BJP seems to have expended its energies in RSS-izing the state instead. The
sangh and the party go together, but the leaders of both have to decide which one to place first. Its choice so far is clear. It may be looking at a long-term game but, for 2016, the BJP has squandered a great opportunity.
(Rishi Majumder is an associate partner at the new media company Oijo)Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.