US May See 30-40% Drop In Foreign Student Enrollments This Fall. Here's Why

Amid US President Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration and wider visa backlog, American universities are likely to see a 30 per cent to 40 per cent decline in enrollment of foreign students in American universities for the upcoming academic session starting in September, according to an alarming new projection from NAFSA-- an association of international educators.

The survey also predicted an estimated 15 per cent drop in total enrollment for the 2025/26 academic year, representing a loss of 1,50,000 students over the previous year. For a country that has long projected itself as the global hub of higher education, the decline in enrolments signals a shift in how international students view American academic promise.

The decline in enrollment would translate into a loss of $7 billion to local US economies and more than 60,000 jobs across the United States, the researchers said.

NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw noted that this would be "one of the most significant drops in international enrolment in recent times" after the COVID-19 pandemic.

"A major difference between now and then, however, is that these losses would be self-inflicted," she added.

Reasons For the Drop In Enrollments

The survey found that a major factor driving the decline was the visa processing backlog created by the lengthy suspension of new appointments during March and April this year. The spring is a critical time for students seeking visas for the fall semester. Some US embassies are yet to resume scheduling appointments.

What added to this disruption was a directive from Secretary of State Marco Rubio about consular officers conducting stricter social media screening of student visa applicants.

The researchers noted that after the announcement, the Trump administration granted no additional staff capacity to assist consulates in handling the backlog or the more onerous vetting procedures. 

"There has been no transparency in what the consular officers are screening for, further adding to confusion and uncertainty among students," they said.

The embassies and consulates with the most reports of visa appointment cancellations or unavailability included India, Nigeria, Ghana, China, South Korea, and Japan. This aligns with the countries that send the most students to the United States.

Other Options For International Students

Per the NAFSA report, the top five countries that international students and scholars are turning to instead of the United States are the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, China, and Germany.