- Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed 254 people shortly after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement
- Iran fired missiles at Israel and Gulf states, resuming its Strait of Hormuz blockade
- Trump faces three options: resume war, push diplomacy, or pressure Netanyahu to stand down
Israeli strikes on Lebanon Wednesday - a 100-missile barrage that killed 254 people hours after the US-Iran ceasefire - have left Donald Trump with three options - resume the war, push diplomacy, or pressure Benjamin Netanyahu to stand down.
The US President must also deal with post-ceasefire Iran strikes; Tehran fired missiles at Israel and other Gulf nations citing Israel actions, and resumed its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the channel that handles a fifth of the world's seaborne crude oil trade.
The missile exchange underscored a gap in the ceasefire agreement - Lebanon.
Iran has insisted any deal must include Lebanon but the US and Israel believe otherwise.
Trump spoke to American broadcaster PBS News Wednesday morning and said he viewed any strikes on Beirut as "a separate skirmish", and that Lebanon was excluded from the truce because of Hezbollah. "That will get taken care of too…"
Israel has been equally clear about what it claims are "existential threats". Officials have already stressed Netanyahu's goal to 'completely degrade Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities' and target Lebanon till the Hezbollah is wiped out.
Iran hardliners to cry 'betrayed', again?
Arising from this, Trump will also have to deal with anger and distrust within Iran, where many hardliners will see Israel's actions as another 'betrayal' of attempts to secure long-term peace.
READ | Iran Celebrates Ceasefire But Distrust Persists Over US, Israel Actions
They will point to June 2025 and February 2026 attacks launched during talks over a new nuclear/missile programme deal, and which have been flagged as bad faith negotiating.
None of three options available to Trump are easy to execute.
US to return to war?
Resuming the war will be greeted by howls of rage from Tehran and immeasurably complicate the peace process.
And renewed US military strikes will escalate fighting across West Asia, worsening an already catastrophic energy crisis and likely triggering a global economic disaster.
It will also have political blowback ahead of the November mid-term election, particularly with approval ratings under pressure. The ceasefire was played up as a big 'win' for Trump and to go back on it will expose him to sharp criticism.
Israel, Iran ceasefire violations could prompt the US to resume fighting (File).
However, Trump's aggressive battle rhetoric - calling Iranians "crazy ba****ds" and warning he would "unleash hell" via escalated attacks on Iranian power grids, oil infrastructure, and nuclear facilities - means that option remains.
Finally, renewing fighting could strain what reports indicate are rapidly-depleting missile and drone arsenals for the US, with some suggesting use rates outpace current production.
As far back as March 3 leaked Pentagon data warned of low stocks if the war continued for 10 more days.
Vance to Pakistan, can diplomacy hold?
The second option is to double down on diplomacy.
Vice-President JD Vance is expected in Islamabad Friday to begin peace talks with Iran.
Vance was critical in engineering the ceasefire and reports indicate Tehran is not comfortable talking to any other Trump administration official. And Trump could opt to trust him, again, to sort this mess out.
READ | JD Vance's 'Shadow Broker' Role: How Trump's Veep Delivered Iran Truce
But Vance will be hard-pressed to secure a long-term peace deal if Israel continues to attack Lebanon, which means this will need to be two-progned push by the US - Vance in Pakistan and Trump talking to Netanyahu.
And the likely choice of venue - Pakistan - reduces the chance of Israel attending.
Vance' will also have to counter Iran demands for US troops to withdraw; nearly 60,000 soldiers, at least 50 per cent more than usually deployed, had been moved to the West Asia region over the past two weeks in anticipation of a ground invasion.
RECAP | Ground War On? US Rushes 57,000 Troops As Iran Crisis Escalates
Other demands - lifting of sanctions, a civil-use nuclear programme, reparations, and, critically, 'authority' over the Hormuz to impose tolls - will all be fiercely debated, but likely remain secondary if Israel does not back down.
Make Bibi stand down, like June 2025?
The third option - putting pressure on Israel - echoes what Trump had to do in June last year, after Netanyahu violated the US-negotiated stop to the 12-Day War.
Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted Lebanon will be targeted (File).
Furious after Israel launched air strikes despite agreeing to a "complete and total ceasefire" with Iran, the US President snapped on Truth Social: "ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly "Plane Wave" to Iran. Nobody will be hurt… the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
Iran violated the ceasefire, "but Israel violated it too," Trump said.
RECAP | "All Planes Will Head Home": Trump, Unhappy With Israel, Dials Netanyahu
The President also spoke directly to Netanyahu, the latter's office said.
A similar intervention cannot be ruled out and could, potentially, be the best option.
To be seen as putting enough pressure on Israel to back down could convince Iran the US is intent on securing long-term peace, or at least serious enough to engage in talks to that end.
Reigning in Israel would also underline, in Iran's eyes, that Washington that controls Tel Aviv and not the other way around.
However, experts suggest this is the least likely-to-happen scenario given Netanyahu has publicly targeted Lebanon and described it as a "separate campaign".
Oil dips below $100 - but for how long?
The two-week ceasefire was supposed to give peace a chance.
ANALYSIS | Ceasefire Announced, But It's Not A Full Stop To War: What Next?
It was also supposed to resolve the energy crisis triggered by Iran attacks on oil-producing Gulf neighbours and its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Benchmark Brent crude fell 13-16 per cent after the ceasefire was announced and WTI, i.e., West Texas Intermediate by 14-15 per cent.
RECAP | Ships Transiting Hormuz Without Permit Will Be "Destroyed", Says Iran
Both are holding below the US$100 a barrel red line early April 9, but further missile strikes, or failure on the US' part to enforce this ceasefire, will likely push it back up and exacerbate a crisis that has led to skyrocketing fuel prices worldwide.
