Ukraine Drone Blitz Is Crippling Russian Refineries. What It Means For India

While territorial gains on the battlefield have slowed, Ukraine has sharply intensified its long-range drone campaign inside Russia, targeting energy infrastructure hundreds and, in some cases, thousands of kilometres from the border.

Since the beginning of 2026, Ukrainian drones have struck Russian oil and gas facilities at least 194 times, an 11-fold increase compared to the same period last year, according to data from Poland-based Rochan Consulting analysed by the Financial Times.

The attacks have escalated sharply since May. Data compiled and analysed by NDTV Datafy shows at least 36 Ukrainian attacks on Russia's energy facilities between May 1 and July 6. 

The sheer number of drone attacks appears to be stretching Russia's air defence network, with repeated attacks targeting energy infrastructure across multiple regions.

On Monday, a long-range drone hit Russia's largest refinery in the Siberian city of Omsk, prompting Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to declare that Siberia was now "within reach of Ukrainian precision". As per Reuters, the Omsk refinery processed around 23 million metric tons, or 460,000 barrels, of oil daily last year.

According to government data, Russia was the top source of Indian oil imports between January and April this year. 

Nikhil Dubey, a lead analyst at energy intelligence firm Kpler, says Russian oil processing facilities are witnessing a downtime of around 40 per cent of their capacity due to attacks. Repairing them can take weeks or even months, and Western sanctions on components have made them longer.

This has sparked concerns about potential disruption in Russian crude exports to India. Dubey, however, says the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are unlikely to hamper crude oil shipments to India because the attacks are concentrated on refineries, not export terminals.  

"In fact, Russia is exporting more crude oil because more quantities are available due to a fall in their processing capacity. They used to process around 5.2 million barrels per day, which has fallen to approximately 4 million barrels per day now. But their export infrastructure is working fine," he told NDTV Datafy. 

While Russian refining has been disrupted, there is little evidence so far of any significant disruption to crude exports. Some reports suggest Russia has imported refined fuels to bridge domestic shortages, while media reports have also pointed to long queues at petrol stations in some regions.