- Trump set a Wednesday 5:30 am IST deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face consequences
- On Monday, the US struck Iran's Kharg Island and Israel hit Iranian railways and infrastructure
- If the US attacks Iranian energy infrastructure as promised by Trump, it would mark a dramatic escalation
The clock has been ticking since Sunday, when President Donald Trump posted a single line on Truth Social: "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!" (5:30 am, Wednesday)That was his deadline for Iran to make a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz. With hours left, the world is watching.
How We Got Here
Trump's deadline came attached to a warning that left little room for ambiguity.
"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah," he posted on Truth Social.
Since then, the situation has moved quickly. The US struck Iran's strategic Kharg Island oil export hub, hitting more than 50 targets according to the Wall Street Journal. Israel separately conducted strikes on Iranian railways and key infrastructure. Iran retaliated by attacking petrochemical plants. Reports emerged of intense negotiations, then of Iran shutting the door on Washington, then of the door being cracked open again.
Trump warned that "a whole civilisation will die tonight" while leaving an off-ramp open by adding that "maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen." Speculation about the US considering the use of nuclear weapons was raised and later dismissed by the White House. Countries began warning their citizens to stay where they were.
With hours to go until the deadline, here are the ways tonight could play out.
Another Deadline Extension
This appears to be the least likely outcome. Trump has built this moment as a pressure point, and stepping back without a result could cost him leverage with Tehran.
Speaking on Fox News shortly before the deadline, Trump said plainly that "8 pm is happening."
That said, this would not be the first time he has extended a deadline during this war. On Monday, he also said he was exploring a plan that would allow the US to charge ships for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a possible off-ramp he appears to be keeping open.
Trump has a history of using deadlines as leverage, but rarely ignores them entirely.
How The Threats Have Escalated
21 March: Trump threatened to "hit and obliterate" Iranian power plants if Tehran did not reopen the Strait within 48 hours.
23 March: Shortly before that deadline expired, Trump said the two sides had held "productive conversations."
26 March: He added ten more days to the deadline.
30 March: Trump said the US would "blow up and completely obliterate" power plants and oil wells in Iran if no deal was reached.
1 April: Trump said Iran had asked for a ceasefire but said he would only consider it after the Strait was reopened.
4 April: He warned Iran's leaders that "time is running out."
5 April: He told Iran to "open the Fuckin' Strait."
6 April: He said he had even "worse" options than anything he had threatened before.
A Last-Minute Deal Or Progress Towards
Trump could announce that negotiators are making progress or that a limited agreement has been reached, which is precisely what happened earlier.
Multiple countries are actively working toward such an outcome. Trump himself suggested on Monday that proposals were being exchanged, suggesting talks were alive, though he described Iran's latest offer as "not enough."
Iranian media outlet Tehran Times reported on Tuesday that Iran had suspended all diplomatic and indirect channels with the United States. Hours later, the same outlet walked that back, signalling that efforts to reach a ceasefire were still active.
US Vice President JD Vance also suggested talks were continuing. "There is going to be a lot of negotiation between now and then, and I'm hopeful that it gets to a good resolution," he said, referring to the hours ahead of the deadline.
A US official told Fox News that contact with Iran was ongoing. "We are absolutely in touch with [Iran]. Absolutely. [The talks] have been positive. If we get lucky, we will have something by the end of the day," the official said.
One notable holdout against a ceasefire is Israel. Axios reported on Monday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had warned Trump against agreeing to one.
US Goes All In On Trump's Threat
If this scenario plays out and the US carries out widespread strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure as Trump has promised, it would mark a dramatic escalation.
The US has already struck Kharg Island ahead of the deadline. Israel has separately completed what it described as "a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting dozens of infrastructure sites belonging to the Iranian terror regime in several areas across Iran," though it did not specify what had been targeted.
In both previous instances of US attacks on Tehran, last June and on 28 February, when the current conflict began, negotiations had been reported as progressing, yet the strikes happened anyway.
Trump has said Iran repeatedly tries to string the US along during talks without ever agreeing to anything. If he decided that it was happening again, he could authorise strikes shortly after the deadline passes.
The US will either go all in, as Trump has suggested, or begin with a series of escalatory strikes to increase pressure and force Iran back to the table.
