An Exiled Prince, Can Reza Pahlavi Bring About Iran's "Berlin Wall" Moment

Reza Pahlavi waited nearly five decades in exile for a moment like this. With Iran under military pressure and its regime shaken by foreign strikes, the former crown prince declared the country ripe for change.

"This is our Berlin Wall moment," he said Monday, positioning himself as a voice of opposition and also as the man to lead Iran's next chapter.

The collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 ended decades of division in Germany and led to the swift disintegration of communist control in Eastern Europe.

In a crisp suit with an Iranian flag lapel pin, Pahlavi painted a picture of a future free from clerical rule. "Imagine this new Iran," he said. "A free and democratic Iran, living at peace with our neighbours, an engine of growth and opportunity."

He sounded every bit like a campaign candidate. That was no accident. "I am stepping forward to lead this national transition," he declared. "I have a clear plan."

For decades, Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah, has been a vocal critic of Iran's Islamic regime. From exile, he was now calling on Iranians, including military, police, and civil servants, to abandon the Islamic Republic and embrace a new national vision.

Pahlavi's proclamation came on the heels of the largest foreign assault on Iran in decades. Over twelve days, Israel struck nuclear infrastructure, IRGC bases, energy facilities and even civilian areas. Iran retaliated. Days later, the US joined, hitting three nuclear locations with stealth bombers and bunker-busting missiles.

US President Donald Trump issued open threats suggesting a regime change was within reach. "If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!" he posted on social media.

In a separate briefing, he said that US intelligence knew where Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was. Calling him "an easy target," Trump warned that any Iranian retaliation would face "force far greater than what was witnessed tonight," though he said he was sparing Khamenei "for now".

Pahlavi, already a fixture on international media, seized the moment. "Do not fear the day after the fall of the Islamic Republic," he said that same day. "Iran will not descend into civil war or instability."

If Iran's regime collapses, Reza Pahlavi stands to benefit more than any other opposition figure. As the exiled son of the last Shah, he carries both name recognition and a legacy that appeals to parts of the Iranian community and segments of the domestic population disillusioned with clerical rule.

Pahlavi urged Khamenei step down. "Ali Khamenei and his crumbling terrorist regime have failed the nation. As Khamenei considers how to respond from his underground bunker, I say to him: For the sake of the Iranian people, respond by stepping down," he wrote on X.

On Monday, Pahlavi repeated that credible intelligence suggested Iran's ruling elite was preparing to flee. "Credible reports indicate that Ali Khamenei's family, and the families of senior regime officials, are making preparations to flee Iran," he said. "The regime is on its last legs."

"Join your fellow Iranians and stand on the right side of history," Pahlavi urged. "This is your final chance."

Reza Pahlavi's exile began during the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when his father, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, was deposed. As a teenager training in the US military, Reza never returned. Instead, he grew into the role of activist-in-exile, issuing statements after crackdowns, appearing on talk shows, and slowly building a following among the Iranian community abroad.

But despite the fanfare, the moment may not be his after all.

The Israel-Iran conflict ended with a US-brokered ceasefire on Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters, Trump suddenly reversed course saying he didn't want to see "regime change" in Iran, adding that it would cause "chaos."

"If there was, there was, but no I don't want it. I'd like to see everything calm down as quickly as possible. Regime change takes chaos, and ideally, we don't want to see so much chaos," he said.

With the immediate threat of war receding, Iran's government is reportedly willing to return to negotiations with the United States. On Wednesday, Trump went a step ahead, saying the US could end up "having somewhat of a relationship with Iran". 

"I see it. Look, I've had a relationship over the last four days. They agreed to the ceasefire, and it was a very equal agreement. They both said that's enough," he said.