Russian President Vladimir Putin's high-profile visit to New Delhi has reignited debate in Washington over India's growing proximity to Moscow, at a time when global geopolitical alignments are shifting rapidly. In an exclusive conversation with NDTV, Michael Kugelman, Senior Fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, warned that the visit that was celebrated in India for its strong optics and expansive outcomes has heightened concerns within the US administration about the trajectory of India-Russia ties.
Kugelman said the summit's success, accompanied by a detailed joint statement and renewed commercial and military cooperation, is likely to be interpreted in Washington as India "bolstering Putin" at a moment when the US is working to revive a peace process in Ukraine.
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi's parallel outreach to Kyiv and his messaging that "this is not an era of war" signal India's desire to maintain neutrality, the Putin meeting has underscored the limits of New Delhi's strategic autonomy in an increasingly polarised world.
Adding to the unease is the timing. The Quad summit has been shelved, Donald Trump's India visit postponed, and US sanctions on Moscow have introduced new frictions. "These sanctions have changed the calculus," Kugelman noted, pointing out that India's decision to reduce Russian oil imports just days before Putin's arrival illustrates the challenges New Delhi faces as it tries to navigate competing demands from Russia and the West.
India's new gas deal with the US may assuage some American concerns, but "more concessions will likely be expected," Kugelman cautioned.
Trade tensions remain central. With Washington imposing tariffs on multiple partners-from China to Canada-India is bracing for potential fallout. Trump's public criticism of India's economy and mixed messaging about his personal rapport with PM Modi have created further diplomatic unease.
Kugelman warned that countries seeking tariff relief from Trump have historically had to make substantial concessions. "India faces a difficult moment," he said, though he added that weeks of signals suggesting both sides are "close to a deal" offer some cautious optimism.
A potential stabilising factor is the arrival of Sergio Gor as the new US ambassador to India. A close Trump ally and outspoken supporter of strong India-US ties, Gor is expected to play an important role in reshaping the tone of bilateral engagement.
Kugelman stressed the distinction between the hardline rhetoric emerging from the White House and the more partnership-oriented approach championed by the State Department, the Defence Department, and the US Congress. "There is strong bipartisan support for India," he said, suggesting that institutional goodwill remains intact despite recent tensions.
Turning to South Asia's volatile security landscape, Kugelman offered a sober assessment of the recent India-Pakistan conflict and the fragile ceasefire that followed. He warned that the red lines articulated by India-particularly any Pakistan-backed terror attack being treated as an act of war-indicate that hostilities could resume under the right provocation.
Pakistan's military and civilian leadership, Kugelman noted, regained significant public support during the conflict, but the introduction of controversial constitutional amendments and Army Chief Asim Munir's elevation to field marshal risk eroding that goodwill, potentially destabilising the country's internal and external posture.
Kugelman also weighed in on China's expanding regional influence and its implications for India and the US. He argued that the Trump administration's China policy remains undefined, with the president alternating between confrontational rhetoric and pragmatic restraint.
Trump is likely to maintain economic competition with Beijing, Kugelman said, but will avoid steps that could trigger damaging retaliation from a nation with enormous leverage in global markets. This raises the possibility of a new US-China "understanding" that could reshape Indo-Pacific dynamics and complicate India's strategic calculus.
Despite the headwinds, Kugelman expressed guarded optimism for India-US ties. He said both governments remain motivated to prevent a rupture and are continuing high-level negotiations. "It's a difficult moment, but not a breaking point," he said, adding, "There is a genuine desire in Washington to get this relationship back on track. It's just a matter of time."
