- US-Iran conflict since Feb 2026 caused global oil prices to surge 35-50 percent
- Brent crude peaked at $119 per barrel in March, now below $100 but volatile
- US Energy Secretary says US gas prices may stay above $3 per gallon for months
The short-term cause is hard to follow -- US hitting Iran, Iran striking energy infrastructure in the Gulf, peace talks not yeilding results, Donald Trump's latest Truth Social post, and so on. But the long-term impact is an easy guess -- high oil prices for months.
Since the beginning of the fresh conflict in Iran on February 28, 2026, global oil prices have surged by approximately 35 to 50 per cent. The price of Brent crude rose to its peak in March at over $119 per barrel -- up from $70 before the war. At present, oil prices have shot below $100 per barrel. However, it remains volatile.
With US-Iran peace negotitations concluding without any concrete result, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to remain disrupted. Acknowledging the prevailing situation, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright has said that gasoline (petrol) prices in the US may stay above $3 for longer than earlier hoped. He added that prices may have peaked but could remain elevated for months, and possibly longer. Follow Live Updates
Speaking on State of the Union, Wright said he could not say when Americans would again see $3 a gallon at the pump. It could happen later this year. It might not happen until next year. He noted that pre-Iran war prices near $3 were already "pretty tremendous" after adjusting for inflation.
Data from the American Automobile Association, accessed by The New York Times, shows the national average at $4.05 a gallon on Sunday, up from $2.98 before the conflict began.
The price rise comes after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supply. Iran's actions around the waterway have slowed shipping traffic, tightening crude supplies and lifting global oil prices.
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Significantly, US President Donald Trump had earlier described the spike in fuel prices as short term. However, data suggests that fuel prices in November (2026) could be around current levels, or slightly higher.
Meanwhile, oil executives say reopening shipping lanes will not quickly reverse pump prices. As the industry saying goes, prices rise like a rocket and fall like a feather. With a fragile cease-fire, damaged facilities, and thinner tanker traffic, the path back to cheaper fuel looks sluggish, say analysts.
Separately, Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, wrote on X about the wider energy impact of the Iran war. He highlighted strains on shipping routes and the knock-on effect on markets. He listed out the impacts of the closure of the Hormuz Strait (over 50 days):-
- Nearly 600 million barrels of oil have been disrupted.
- 50 days of escalating pressure on liquefied natural gas, jet fuel, fertilisers, and the essential materials the world relies on.
- Every missing barrel raises bills for ordinary people everywhere.
- The global economy cannot withstand more uncertainty.
- The Strait must not be used for threats.
- And we must call things by their names: payment for safe passage is extortion.
"The Strait of Hormuz is a global waterway, and it must return to the world, exactly as it was," added Sultan Al Jaber.
