NATO Wants Members To Spend 5% Of GDP On Defence, Only Two Already Do

At the NATO Summit in Ankara, alliance leaders endorsed a new defence spending benchmark of 5% of GDP, significantly higher than NATO's long-standing 2% target. The move has come during the high security concerns across Europe and the alliance's efforts to strengthen its military capabilities amid the continuing threat.

However, the latest NATO defence expenditure estimates data show that only two members have already crossed the new threshold. Lithuania is projected to spend 5.33% of its GDP on defence in 2026, while Estonia is expected to spend 5.10%. No other NATO member has yet reached the future goal of 5%.

What stands out in the data is where these countries are located. Both Lithuania and Estonia sit on NATO's eastern flank and are among the alliance's closest members to Russia. The same pattern is visible among the countries nearest to joining the "5% club". Latvia, which shares a border with Russia, is projected to spend 4.92% of GDP on defence, while Poland, another frontline state, is expected to spend 4.68%.

The figures suggest that countries geographically closest to Russia are committing the largest share of their economies to defence. Concerns over regional security following Russia-Ukraine tension have pushed several eastern NATO members to increase military spending at a much faster pace than many of their western counterparts.

In contrast, some of NATO's biggest economies remain well below the proposed benchmark. The United States is projected to spend 3.17% of GDP on defence, leaving it 1.83 percentage points short of the 5% target. Germany stands at 2.69%, the United Kingdom at 2.56%, and France at 2.22%. Italy is expected to spend 2.10%, while Canada is projected at 2.13%. Even countries that comfortably exceed NATO's old 2% target remain a long way from 5%.

The Ankara summit's new goal may signal NATO's future direction, but the data shows that, for now, the alliance's biggest spenders are not its largest economies. Instead, the countries closest to Russia are leading the push, with only Lithuania and Estonia having already crossed the milestone.