By 2100, about half of the 30,000 US cities may experience a population decline.
A new study suggests that by the year 2100, almost half of the 30,000 cities in the United States might see a decrease in population, ranging from 12% to 23%. It doesn't mean entire cities will be abandoned, but many could become smaller, with neighborhoods changing and suburbs expanding.
This change won't happen all at once; it will be a gradual process. Some cities that were once thriving might lose people, while others in warmer areas could keep growing. The study points out that people will move around, creating different patterns of growth and decline.
The important takeaway is that local governments and city planners have a big role in deciding how this future will look. By preparing for these changes, improving infrastructure, and focusing on what the community needs, cities can adapt and stay lively places to live.
The authors of the study said that the implications of this massive decline in population will bring unprecedented challenges, possibly leading to disruptions in basic services like transit, clean water, electricity, and internet access. Simultaneously, increasing population trends in resource-intensive suburban and periurban cities will probably take away access to much-needed resources in depopulating areas, further exacerbating their challenges. Although immigration could play a vital role, resource distribution challenges will persist unless a paradigm shift happens away from growth-based planning alone.
The study mentions that in many places in the United States, population decline, or depopulation, has become a demographic reality. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), nonmetropolitan counties accounted for 3.2% of the population loss between 2010 and 2017. This population decline in rural United States started long ago and is indicative of an economic shift, which ultimately reduces community well-being and the possibility of a sustainable future. Young adults often migrate out of rural business centres, altering the demographic composition and leaving an ageing population in depopulating areas.