How US Airstrikes Created Win-Win Chance For Iran, Diplomatic Fix For Trump

With the US carrying out precision airstrikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran, all eyes are now on Tehran's response. Iran now faces a tough choice: a strong retaliation may lead to further escalation, but a meek response may result in the national leadership losing popular support. There is another possibility: Iran may not strike back at the US now.

Trump Throws A Bait

The Donald Trump administration struck three nuclear installations in Iran -- Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. This is the first time the US has attacked facilities in Iran since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. However, the precision nature of the strike suggests that Trump has, in effect, thrown the ball into Iran's court. "Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier," the US President said after the airstrikes.

The US has thrown a bait. If Iran chooses to respond by targeting US facilities, Washington DC would then step up its offensive and push the "we didn't start the war" narrative.

What Iran Said After the Attacks

Iran's Foreign Affairs Ministry has condemned the US' "brutal military aggression" and termed it a "grave and unprecedented violation" of the fundamental principles of the UN Charter and international law. "The US military aggression against the territorial integrity and national sovereignty of a UN member state - carried out in collusion with the genocidal Israeli regime - once again laid bare the depth of depravity that governs American foreign policy and revealed the extent of hostility harbored by the US ruling establishment against the peace-seeking and independence-loving people of Iran." 

"The Islamic Republic of Iran is resolved to defend Iran's territory, sovereignty, security and people by all force and means against the United States' criminal aggression," Iran has said, urging the UN Security Council to step in.

Why Iran May Not Target the US

It would be reckless of Iran to launch a direct attack on the US at this point. The unequal military capabilities aside, such an attack would give Trump exactly what he wants -- a reason to launch a massive offensive. What Iran may do instead is let Trump have this symbolic victory and continue its attacks against Israel. Doing this keeps Washington out of the war and puts more pressure on Tel Aviv. If the US still targets Iran, it would seem like the aggressor going to war on Israel's behalf.

Diplomatic Dilemma For Trump

In joining the war against Iran, US President Trump has played a major gamble. For long, Trump has spoken against "forever wars" fought by former US Presidents abroad, but his escalation today flies in the face of that rhetoric. While the Democrats in the US have stepped up their political attacks following the airstrikes, Trump also runs the risk of alienating a section of his Republican supporters. If the US manages to get Iran to capitulate, Trump can still claim a major win. But if that doesn't happen, he will be blamed for drawing Washington into another protracted conflict. This is also bad optics for brand Trump, especially at a time when Pakistan has backed him for the Nobel Peace Prize, stressing that his intervention in the India-Pakistan conflict last month "stands as a testament to his role as a genuine peacemaker". India has repeatedly emphasised that the ceasefire was the result of direct diplomacy between New Delhi and Islamabad, with the latter reaching out after India targeted key military installations in Pakistan.

A Win-Win Option For Iran

Today's airstrikes in Iran provide a big opportunity for Iran to shift its nuclear strategy. Iran had signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1968 and ratified it in 1970 as a non-nuclear-weapon state. Amid the spiralling conflict with Israel, Tehran had earlier said its lawmakers are preparing a bill for withdrawal from the NPT. The US airstrikes provide it with a better option. It can now simply say it does not know what has happened to its enriched uranium supplies due to wartime conditions. This would create a strategic ambiguity, and this alone could deter future attacks and keep Western powers guessing.

This approach offers Iran three advantages: (1) it can delay a direct confrontation with the US (2) provide a justification to step away from nuclear transparency (3) provide leverage in any post-war negotiation.