"Iran Will Fight Until Last Moment": Geopolitical Strategist To NDTV On Ongoing War

The escalating war between Iran and Israel-US entered its fifth day, continuing tensions in the Middle East as missiles hit many Gulf regions, including Dubai and Abu Dhabi. The world is also fixated on the chokepoint that carries around a fifth of the world's oil supply - the Strait of Hormuz - which Tehran has shut down, with sources saying that only Chinese vessels will be allowed to pass through the crucial shipping lane. Geopolitical Strategist Velina Tchakarova, while speaking to NDTV's Managing Editor Shiv Aroor, said the world is currently in an "uncharted waters scenario" because of what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz. LIVE UPDATES

Tchakarova said that no one was anticipating a real blockage, adding that Iran has never before blocked the shipping lane - mostly because of its most important client, China.

"An important component of this war that has to do with the geoeconomic implications is the Strait of Hormuz. That's a key component. In fact, nobody was anticipating a real blockage. We've had many escalations before. Iran has never blocked the straits in the most recent escalation episodes, mostly because of its most important client, which is China. And right now we are in a completely uncharted water scenario because of what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz with significant ramifications for global markets and for key players, including India," she told NDTV.

The  Geopolitical Strategist expressed concern over risks if Iran starts attacking ships once the US Navy starts escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. "And we know for a fact that global insurers already stepped down and now they are being replaced once again by US ones," she said.

Middle East conflict: Amid Strait of Hormuz closure, Iran's green flag to Chinese vessels

NDTV's @ShivAroor speaks to Geopolitical Strategist Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) as she decodes the latest developments pic.twitter.com/ZCbHsQCRVI

— NDTV (@ndtv) March 4, 2026

Tchakarova said the escalating war is "very hard to predict".

"I argue that we will have at least four or five weeks of real wartime with unanticipated and unimaginary consequences and effects for state actors, for markets, for companies with global business operations, and of course, for citizens, not only in Iran, but in the whole region, which is now also involved in this precarious situation," she said.

Tchakarova said she was one of the many victims of the war as her flights via Dubai had been cancelled.

According to Tchakarova, Iran is still capable of missile and drone attacks and that it would fight "until the very last moment".

"Iran is right now in a scenario has been cornered into scenario where it has nothing to lose. And it will fight until the very last moment, triggering also all the Iranian proxies and networks, not only in the region, but actually beyond that. Think of other regional hotspots, even in Europe. So we are about to see the full implications of what the United States and Israel started five days ago," she said.

Tchakarova believes that Iran has been surprising the American leadership. "This kind of scale and scope of wars is always open for a huge surprise, which is why I was arguing right from the beginning that diplomatic frameworks should actually be the leading format. The Iranian leadership is a multi-layered leadership. It's not just about the supreme leader. It's not about the succession of Khamenei. It's a multi-layered state system that's much more resilient than one would anticipate from outside," she said.

'No wait and watch mode'

According to Tchakarova, the countries and companies that are in a 'wait and watch' mode to prepare for what's coming are going to be the victims of not just the ongoing war, but also the interconnected flashpoints from Ukraine to Gaza and Iran through the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan.

"Because all of these flashpoints are happening in a concrete global geopolitical environment. And those companies, as well as state actors that approach the situation through the prism of wait and see, most apparently are going to be on the losing side. Companies and investors will be losing, of course, significantly, because this kind of ad hoc reaction is going to put them in a worse-off situation," she said.

'American perspective not as same as Israeli'

Tchakarova said that the American perspective on the war is not the same as what the Israelis are trying to achieve.

"The Americans want to weaken the Chinese position ahead of the US-China summit. They want to actually remove all key partners, allies of China, and by extension, the dragon bear on the global map, which happened with Venezuela, is going to happen with Cuba. And now it's happening with Iran. I think you get the script. And what's on the agenda is the complete destruction of the ballistic missile program of the nuclear installation, as well as of the naval force of Iran," she said.

Tchakarova added, "So it's a real decimation of the Iranian regional power projection. And by removing the proxies and the Iranian power projection, China will be significantly weakened in the Middle East and beyond. The Israeli goals overlap to some extent when it comes to the nuclear program and the ballistic missile program. But in fact, the Israeli goals go beyond that with the regime change operation."

She added that the Israelis are still "hoping that they can actually install regime change top down through the airstrikes" - which she argues is not going to happen. "Of course, red line in my view will be boots on the ground. But let's anticipate all possibilities and eventualities. And in the end, the combination between the Iranian protests and these military operations should result in some sort of regime change. But again, this is a big uncertainty," she said.