India-Pak Conflict Due To "Terrorist Activity" Likely In 2026, Warns US Think Tank

There is a possibility of an "armed conflict" between India and Pakistan in 2026 due to "heightened terrorist activity", a report by a US think tank said. The Council on Foreign Relations report surveyed American foreign policy experts and stated that the Trump administration had "sought to end" the conflict between New Delhi and Islamabad.

"The second Trump administration has sought to end many ongoing conflicts, such as those in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Gaza Strip, and Ukraine, as well as between India and Pakistan and Cambodia and Thailand," the report said.

The two South Asian countries were involved in a short military face-off in May this year. The three-day conflict came a month after the deadly terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam, which caused the death of 26 civilians.

On the night of May 6, the Indian army launched Operation Sindoor, which targeted terrorist camps in Pakistan. Over 100 terrorists and nine camps were eliminated in the operation.

Between May 7 and 10, Pakistan attempted to target both military and civilian assets using armed drones. Each of these incursions was successfully neutralised by the Indian Army. No casualties or damage were reported.

The cumulative pressure compelled Pakistan's military leadership to seek de-escalation. On May 10, the Director General of Military Operations of the Indian Army was approached by his Pakistani counterpart, leading to an understanding to cease firing and military action along the LoC.

Earlier this year, a border conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan began in early October, following a Pakistani airstrike on Kabul to eliminate Noor Wali Mehsud, the leader of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Afghanistan strongly responded to the attack, following which the conflict escalated.

The CFR report also highlighted that there is a "moderate likelihood" of an armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2026 triggered by "resurgent cross-border militant attacks".