How Jamaat-BNP Contest Will Decide Bangladesh's India, China Ties

Bangladesh is holding its most important election in recent times this week, and the two main parties, the Bangladesh Jamaat-E-Islami and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), are leaving no stone unturned to engage with the voters amid a tight contest. For years, under ousted premier Sheikh Hasina's rule, the opposition in the South Asian country had little presence on the streets during polls, either boycotting them or being sidelined by mass arrests of senior leaders.

Now, ahead of Thursday's vote, the roles have reversed. With the official deadline for the end of campaigning at 7:00 am on Tuesday, Monday is the last chance for parties to reach out to voters. With Hasina's ouster and the subsequent ban on her party-- Awami League-- by the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government, Bangladesh saw the emergence of once allies Jamaat and BNP as the principal players in its politics.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is widely expected to win, although a coalition led by the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami is putting up a strong challenge. A new party driven by Gen-Z activists under the age of 30 has aligned with Jamaat after failing to translate its anti-Hasina street mobilisation into an electoral base.

Analysts believe Jamaat may spring a surprise, as the party is expected to post its best-ever performance in the February 12 polls. Jamaat gained a position of strength following the overturn of the ban on its activities soon after the Yunus government took over in 2024, and its subsequent return to politics with the Election Commission in Bangladesh restoring its registration.

However, the return of Tarique Rahman to the country after 17 years in political exile has reinvigorated the BNP cadre. The death of former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia has also created a sentiment in favour of the BNP. This situation has made this election a tight contest, with the Jamaat and the BNP taking potshots at each other during the campaign rallies.
 

Race To Catch Swing Votes 

Reuters

With Hasina's Awami League banned, many young people who helped oust her government in a 2024 uprising say the upcoming vote will be the Muslim-majority nation's first competitive election since 2009, when she began 15 years of iron-fisted rule.

Both the BNP and the Jamaat are trying to reach the Awami League supporters, especially in seats where Hasina's party enjoys massive support. The death of prominent Awami League leader and Hindu politician from Thakurgaon, Ramesh Chandra Sen, in prison, saw top leaders of both parties rush to his home, signifying how important the shifting vote bank is.

Sen was a five-time MP and held immense sway in the region. Both parties want Awami League supporters to vote for them, as the party is out of the contest. In a tight election, these floating votes are likely to be the deciding factor.

Jamaat Vs BNP Legacy Race

NDTV tracked rallies of both major parties and spoke to their supporters. A BNP supporter told NDTV, "The Jamaat cannot deny history and deny its role during the 1971 liberation struggle, where millions of Bangladeshis were targeted and killed. That was no different from what Sheikh Hasina did during the brutal crackdown by her government in 2024."

Jamaat supporters, meanwhile, maintain, "Tarique Rahman was not around to fight Sheikh Hasina, as he left the country and lived in political exile, and it was the Jamaat that was the primary target of the Sheikh Hasina government, with the organisation being banned by the Awami League. People have seen who fought against Hasina. It was us."

Jamaat Chief Shafiqur Rahman also took a dig at BNP chief Tarique Rahman, saying, "Politics in Bangladesh has been turned into a system of privilege and corruption, where political leadership is passed down like family property. This country is not a family estate."

"I reject dynastic politics. Leadership must be earned, not inherited."

Rahman stopped short of responding to the Jamaat's jibes, but his party leaders did pull punches while hitting back, reminding the crowd that Jamaat leaders had sided with Pakistan as the Pakistan Army committed atrocities on Bangladeshis.

The Crucial Hindu Vote

Reuters

With the current mood indicating a closely fought election, all parties are reaching out to the main minority-- the Hindu community. The Hindu vote, many believe, could eventually become the swing factor, and from temple visits to praising Hindus for their contribution to education, both the Jamaat and the BNP have promised safety and security to the community, even as Hindus in Bangladesh continue to come under attack from radical forces in the run-up to the elections.

But with the Jamaat's hardline and radical image, the BNP may have more acceptance among Hindus. The push for minority votes came as a Jamaat candidate recently praised Hindus for spreading education and funding educational institutions and declared that "You cannot deny the role of Hindus in spreading education in this region."

But experts believe that the Jamaat will have to do a lot more than words to win over Hindus who have suffered due to the actions of radical forces, and the BNP has an edge when it comes to Hindu votes.

Bangladesh Elections

The 13th national parliamentary election and referendum is scheduled for February 12, with voting scheduled from 7:30 am to 4:30 pm across 299 parliamentary constituencies, using transparent ballot boxes and paper ballots. The interim government has announced strict security measures to ensure that the election is held in a secure atmosphere, as violence flared up just days ahead of the elections.

Along with the election, there is also a referendum on the July Charter-- a document that will likely decide the future course of Bangladesh. The July National Charter was signed on October 17, 2025, more than a year after the protests that overthrew the Sheikh Hasina government. If the referendum is passed, political parties will be bound to abide by its points even if there was no consensus on several key areas.

On November 13, 2025, the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus issued the July National Charter (Constitutional Reform) Implementation Order. The referendum will be conducted on four constitutional reform proposals, and voters will be required to cast a single "Yes" or "No" vote on all four collectively.

The China Angle

The election verdict will also influence the roles of China and India in Bangladesh in the coming years, analysts have said. Beijing has increased its standing in Bangladesh since Hasina's ouster-- who was seen as pro-India. While New Delhi's influence is on the wane, the BNP is seen by some as being relatively more in tune with India than the Jamaat.

A Jamaat-led government might tilt closer to Pakistan, a fellow Muslim-majority nation and a long-standing rival of India. Also, Jamaat's Gen-Z ally has said "New Delhi's hegemony" in Bangladesh is one of its main concerns, and its leaders met Chinese diplomats recently, analysts believe.

Jamaat has, however, said the party is not inclined towards any country. Analysts also say that Jamaat's clean image is a factor in its favour, much more than its Islamic leanings.

"Voters report high intention to participate, prioritise corruption and economic concerns over religious or symbolic issues, and express clear expectations for leaders who demonstrate care, competence and accountability," said a survey by Reuters.

Nevertheless, BNP's Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, is seen as the frontrunner to lead the next government. But if the Jamaat-led coalition emerges ahead, its chair, Shafiqur Rahman, could be in line for the top job.

BNP's Rahman has said that if his party formed the government, it would have friendly relations with any nation that "offers what is suitable for my people and my country".