Bihar's Complex Political Arithmetic Decoded By NDTV's Rahul Kanwal And Axis My India

Beyond the loud campaign speeches — the real battle for Bihar 2025 is being shaped quietly by three decisive demographic factors: caste, women voters, and the youth. Experts say caste alone drives close to 80–90% of voting behaviour in Bihar — making it the single biggest axis in the state’s politics. But this time, women could be the real game-changers: while the voter list is almost 50–50, turnout shows women outvote men by nearly 10 percentage points. And then there is the youth — 18 to 30-year-olds form nearly a quarter of the electorate. Even if their turnout is lower, their influence at home has flipped — younger voters now nudge parents on who to choose. Between MY consolidation for the Mahagathbandhan and EBC + upper caste strength with the NDA — the sliver that truly matters is the 20% block of marginal Dalit and OBC communities like Pasi, Jatav, Non-Jatav Dalits and the Mallah–Nishad grouping. Whoever wins this segment — wins Bihar. Watch this detailed breakdown of Bihar's complex political arithmetic