There was nothing happy about Edappadi Palaniswami's birthday on May 12. His colleagues, instead of throwing a party, decided to play party pooper by splitting the party.
Thirty of Palaniswami's colleagues in the AIADMK Legislature party, led by SP Velumani and CV Shanmugam, refused to propose his name as leader, leaving him in the minority with the support of just 17 legislators. This group then went to declare its support for the TVK government led by Joseph Vijay. Both Palaniswami and Velumani have been allotted separate seats in the front row in the Assembly by the Speaker now.
While the rebellion is so far manifesting itself only in the legislature party, it is clear that the party at large is no longer willing to put up with repeated failures under Palaniswami's leadership and wants to make the best of a hopeless situation. The 2026 assembly election was the fourth big defeat for the AIADMK since 2019.
The 'I, Me, Myself' Politics
To put it bluntly, Edappadi Palaniswami's brand of 'I, me, myself' politics has run its course. The trigger, apart from the failure of the AIADMK to return to power and worse, ending a poor third, was Palaniswami's keenness to steal the mandate and become Chief Minister on the crutches of the outside support extended by the DMK. This, according to Shanmugam and Velumani, was unacceptable. To the ordinary AIADMK cadre, who have always looked at the DMK as a foe, this was going against all that had been preached by party founder MG Ramachandran and J Jayalalithaa. Moreover, public opinion would have turned against the attempt by the 'Number 3' party to keep the 'Number 1' party out of power by allying with the 'Number 2' party.
By displaying enthusiasm to join hands with the DMK, Palaniswami also inadvertently exposed his own hypocrisy. During the election campaign, he had torn into O Panneerselvam, who, despite several attempts, was not allowed to get back into the AIADMK by Palaniswami. A frustrated OPS had then joined the DMK. Palaniswami had criticised OPS, accusing him of having acted as the 'B-team' of the DMK during the 2021 assembly election and conspiring against the AIADMK.
"He joined the evil force of the DMK, and he should be ashamed of it," Palaniswami had said in Kanchipuram. The developments of last week showed that EPS did not practise what he preached.
The Difference Between TVK And Vijay
What does the AIADMK's anti-EPS group plan to do now? The rebel group is trying to worm its way into a position of power, making a distinction between the TVK and Vijay.
''The people's mandate is not for TVK, it is for Chief Minister Vijay,'' said Shanmugam in a clever play of words. What was left unsaid is that the TVK did not get a majority, and, therefore, the government of Tamil Nadu must include both TVK and rebel AIADMK legislators under Vijay's leadership.
Is Vijay likely to buy 'insurance cover' for his government from M/s Shanmugam and Velumani? Indications so far are that he is reluctant to do so, as such a decision would not pass muster in the court of public opinion. It is also avoidable because such a move would dilute his anti-corruption plank. Velumani is under investigation in a Rs 98 crore corruption case pertaining to the time when he was Municipal Administration minister in Palaniswami's government. Another leader of the rebel group, former Health Minister C Vijayabaskar, is being probed in the gutkha scam, in which bribes to the tune of Rs 39 crores were paid, according to the CBI.
Who Are AIADMK's Friends Now?
A third point of concern for Vijay would be whether the AIADMK is part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or not. Though Shanmugam has said that the party has exited the NDA now, the EPS camp is yet to react to the alliance exit. Several rebel leaders moved closely with the BJP leadership during the election campaign, and given Vijay's declaration that the BJP is his ideological foe, would he be comfortable joining hands with opportunistic turncoats?
The TVK leadership also has to consider this: in case the rebels do not touch the 32-mark, they could get disqualified under the anti-defection law. Would the TVK then be willing to support them in a re-election bid?
What does it mean for the AIADMK, which has enjoyed more years in power than the DMK since its formation in 1972? It is clearly staring at a downward slope. Its core votebank of women has been taken over by Vijay, while Palaniswami clearly has proven unable to project himself as the alternative to MK Stalin. Given that both the TVK and DMK are now led by leaders in their early 50s and late 40s, respectively, inside the Assembly, the DMK also needs to look at a reset and look beyond Palaniswami, who turned 72 today.
Palaniswami's refusal to support a TVK government and unwillingness to let go of his position signal that a split is inevitable. The last major split in the AIADMK had taken place after MGR's death in 1987-89. The tussle over the 'two leaves' is expected to go to the courts yet again, and the ensuing public chaos won't help endear any of the AIADMK leaders to the voters.
Where Does This Leave The BJP?
What role is the BJP likely to play now? The election results show that an association is a lose-lose situation for both parties. With either group of the AIADMK unlikely to take Tamil Nadu by storm and Vijay choosing the Congress as an ally, the BJP has no option but to focus on strengthening itself as a singular force.
What would gladden Vijay's heart is that he has managed to hit several birds with one electoral victory. The AIADMK is splintered, and the DMK, after its unsuccessful bid to cobble together a Palaniswami-led government, has been left exposed, coming across as a party that was willing to compromise on its principles just for the sake of stopping Vijay. Through his election campaign, Vijay pitched the election as one between TVK and DMK, completely ignoring the existence of the AIADMK. Now, the party of the two leaves is indeed facing an existential crisis in the harsh summer of 2026.
(The author is a senior journalist)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
