In the 2018 Karnataka election, the BJP won all but one of the eight assembly seats in Dakshina Kannada district. In each of the seven seats the BJP won, the margin of victory was over 15,000 votes. The closest fight was in Mangalore City South, where the margin was 15,840 votes. In 2018, the BJP's social coalition involved the upper castes, OBCs and theScheduled Castes. Given the BJP's dominance in the previous assembly election, is Dakshina Kannada a done deal for the BJP? Outside of Ullal, does the Congress have a shot at reversing the BJP's dominance? Events in the last five years indicate that there are cracks in the BJP's cross-cutting caste coalition. OBC groups like the Billavas appear unhappy with the lack of political representation and opportunities within the BJP. This presents the Congress with a chance to win back some lost ground in Dakshina Kannada.
Since the early 1990s, Dakshina Kannada has seen a direct fight between the Congress and BJP. Over time, the Communist Party of India, Praja Socialist Party and Swatantra Party, all of which had small pockets of influence, faded away or merged with other political formulations. While the Congress has had a strong presence in the district since independence, the BJP consolidated its position after its first election in 1983. The BJP has won the Dakshina Kannada Lok Sabha seat in every election since 1989. The party has won the Sullia assembly seat since 1994. Since the decline of the CPI, the Ullal assembly seat has been a Congress stronghold. Over the last three decades, the Congress has only lost Ullal in 1994, when the BJP candidate won by a very narrow margin. Apart from Sullia and Ullal, the other six assembly seats in Dakshina Kannada district have alternated between the Congress and BJP.
A month before the election, ground realities suggest the BJP will find it tough to repeat its 2018 sweep of Dakshina Kannada. There are two primary reasons for this. First, the all-inclusive caste coalition that the party built will be difficult to replicate. Over the last two years, there are indications that a growing number of OBCs are unhappy with the BJP. Grassroots party volunteers who often come from OBC groups feel that the state-level leadership does not listen to their voices. In July 2022, following the unfortunate murder of Praveen Nettaru, this dissatisfaction came out in the open. Nettaru, a BJP Yuva Morcha worker, was killed by members of the PFI (Popular Front of India). When Dakshina Kannada MP and state BJP president Naleen Kumar Kateel tried to visit Nettaru's family, local Yuva Morcha karyakartasblocked his path. The protesting karyakartas alleged that the party had done little to 'protect the lives' of Hindus in the district.
The dissatisfaction also stems from the belief that OBC leaders have not been given adequate representation. Satyajith Surathkal, a prominent OBC leader from the Billava community, left the party in 2018 after being denied a ticket. Similar demands for better representation have been made by the Mogaveeras - a fishing community. Recently, the Dakshina Kannada Mogaveera Sanyutka Sabha demanded better political representation for its community leaders. The visible rumblings amongst grassroots karyakartas and the demands for better political representation from various OBC groups could make it difficult for the BJP to re-up its 2018 caste coalition. One must of course concede the point that as a party that focuses on discipline, it could well resolve these contradictions as election day approaches.
Second, the BJP's 2018 campaign focused on how Hindus were increasingly 'unsafe' in Dakshina Kannada. The murder of karyakartas like Sharath Madiwala and Prashanth Poojary by PFI workers contributed to a growing sense of unease amongst Hindus. The BJP led the'Jana Suraksha Yatre' in the months leading up to the 2018 elections. The movement galvanised Hindu voters in the district who were concerned about the growing power of the PFI. In 2023, a similar campaign suggesting that Hindus are 'unsafe' could be termed as being unrealistic, as the BJP is in power. The 2018 campaign benefited from the fact that the BJP was in the opposition. This time, a 2018-style campaign built around Hindu vulnerabilities would be counterproductive for the BJP.
For the Congress, the fact that some sections of OBC voters are unhappy with the BJP is a big window. The Congress needs to be mindful of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity amongst voters in Dakshina Kannada. While there is dissatisfaction against the state and district-level BJP leadership, Modi and the central government appear still very popular. A Congress campaign that focuses more closely on the performance of the state BJP government could reap political dividends. This will allow it to tap into the dissatisfaction against the state level leadership. But the Congress leadership needs to get its act of ticket distribution right to satisfy important segments and ensure party unity. Certain OBC groups were unhappy with the BJP as their community leaders were not given tickets. If the Congress can step in and field candidates from these communities, it can break into the BJP's turf.
Dakshina Kannada will be a close fight. The unease amongst grassroots volunteers and sections of the OBCs is a matter of concern for the BJP but one of possibilities for the Congress. By getting its ticket distribution right and focusing exclusively on the performance of the state government it can put up a tough challenge for the BJP.
(Sanjal Shastri is an independent researcher who has recently submitted his PhD thesis at the University of Auckland. He did his masters in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.