- Eclipses and wars have coincided historically but without causal link according to experts
- Eclipses result from predictable orbital alignments of Earth, Moon, and Sun
- Ancient cultures saw eclipses as omens, but modern science finds no influence on events
As tensions simmer again in parts of the Middle East, social media has revived an old claim: That eclipses are somehow linked to war. The pattern, at first glance, appears striking. The First World War began on 28 July 1914; a solar eclipse followed weeks later in August. The Iran-Iraq War started on 22 September 1980, just 23 days after a lunar eclipse. Iraq invaded Kuwait on 2 August 1990; a lunar eclipse occurred four days later. The Six-Day War in June 1967 and the Yom Kippur War in October 1973 were both preceded by eclipses within weeks or months. More recently, a solar eclipse fell on 14 October 2023 - days after the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war.
But astronomers say the overlap is coincidence, not the cause of it.
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Eclipses are entirely predictable events caused by the orbital alignment of the Earth, Moon and Sun. According to NASA, solar and lunar eclipses can be calculated centuries in advance using precise celestial mechanics. There is no known physical mechanism by which these alignments could influence political decisions or military conflict.
The human impulse to link them with earthly events - including war - is centuries old. In ancient times, eclipses were often interpreted as omens signalling divine displeasure or political upheaval. For example, ancient sources recount a solar eclipse during the Battle of Halys that allegedly precipitated a truce between warring armies.
But modern science makes clear there is no physical basis for such associations. Astronomers emphasise that eclipses have no measurable influence on human behaviour, geopolitics or social conflict. The belief in predictive power, experts say, stems from confirmation bias - the tendency to notice coincidental overlaps and overlook countless instances where nothing noteworthy happened.
Professor Bradley Schaefer, an astronomer at Louisiana State University, notes that eclipses became better understood only with advances in astronomy: "We now know an eclipse is simply the motion of celestial bodies casting shadows - nothing more."
Similarly, research into other claimed astronomical correlations - for example between lunar phases and seismic or biological activity - has found no reliable evidence of influence. Reviews of scientific literature conclude that apparent alignments between eclipses and major human events are artifacts of coincidence, not causation.
Statistically, eclipses are not rare. Between two and five solar eclipses occur globally each year, alongside at least two lunar eclipses. Given how frequently geopolitical crises erupt somewhere in the world, occasional overlap is inevitable.
In short, while eclipses captivate the imagination and sometimes coincide with historic moments, science does not support any link between them and war or conflict. They remain, as astronomers describe them, fascinating but fundamentally natural events.
