Political circles have been rife with speculation about a possible scenario in which only the Shiv Sena (UBT) may be able to come up with a candidate for the upcoming mayoral election in Mumbai.
However, experts say such a situation is unlikely due to several factors, including the population of Scheduled Tribe (ST) groups in Mumbai. The ST population in the city is 1,29,653, and the category is unlikely to be selected in the lottery due to its relatively small size, with only two reserved seats.
Officials say population criteria will be used while allotting category reservations, and that is where there is a lack of clarity. Those familiar with the issue say several technical aspects will be explained when the lottery is conducted.
Members of the Shiv Sena (UBT) have hinted at a scenario where, despite not winning the required number of seats in the BMC elections, they may still be the only party able to present a mayoral candidate.
This is due to the unique process of the mayoral election. The choice of candidate is determined by a rotational reservation format, which is fixed through a lottery. The lottery decides whether the post will be reserved for women, SC, ST, or OBC categories. This must be finalised before political parties announce their candidates.
The crucial lottery is conducted by the Urban Development Department, a portfolio held by Eknath Shinde, who is the Urban Development Minister. The lottery will be held tomorrow.
This time, the Mumbai Mayor's post will not be open to the general category, as the last mayor, Kishori Pednekar, belonged to the general category.
In the municipal corporation elections in Mumbai, reservation of corporator seats for women or specific categories is also decided by lottery. This time, after the lottery, there were 15 SC seats and only two ST seats out of the 227 seats that went to polls on January 15.
The BJP, with 89 corporators, and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, with 29 seats, do not have any newly elected corporators from the ST category.
After the results were declared on January 16, only the Shiv Sena (UBT) had winning candidates from the reserved (ST) category. One ST man and one ST woman were elected on Shiv Sena (UBT) tickets.
Shiv Sena (UBT) winners Jitendra Walvi and Deepmala Baban Badhe are the only two ST candidates who secured seats-and both are Marathi. No political party can afford to backtrack on the promise of a Marathi mayor, which was a key campaign point.
Therefore, political observers say that if the lottery assigns the mayoral post to the ST category, only the Shiv Sena (UBT) may end up having a Marathi ST candidate. While all parties have Marathi SC candidates, only the Shiv Sena (UBT) has ST winners, both male and female.
Uddhav Thackeray told party workers on Saturday that it is his dream to install a Shiv Sena (UBT) mayor in Mumbai. "And if God is willing, this dream will be realised," he said.
