Stock Market Live Updates: At 11 am, Sensex is trading 74,181, Nifty is trading at 23,047.

Indian benchmark indices opened slightly higher on Monday despite the Brent crude oil price shooting above $100 per barrel on Monday. Read full report here

Nifty 23,151 (prev close)  |  GIFT Nifty +0.3%  |  VIX 24.3  |  Brent $104  |  PCR 0.70

The Thesis

After Friday's 488-point Nifty bloodbath - L&T down 7.4%, metals crushed, breadth at 3-versus-47 - InvestorAi is doubling down on the very sectors the market is punishing. With VIX at 24.3 and PCR at 0.70 signaling peak fear, the models read oversold infrastructure and capex names as a contrarian entry, paired with IT services as the dollar-earning hedge in a rupee-at-92.5 world. GIFT Nifty's +160-point Monday morning surge on Trump-China-Iran diplomacy headlines validates the snap-back thesis.

Where We're Concentrated

Three clusters dominate: infrastructure and capex (L&T, APL Apollo, UltraTech, KEI, Jindal Steel), IT defensives (TCS, Infosys, Coforge, Mphasis), and a selective auto-plus-power barbell (TVS Motor, Ashok Leyland, Tata Power, PFC). The infra-heavy tilt is a direct bet that Friday's panic selling in capex names overshot fundamentals - India's order books haven't changed because Brent crossed $100. This thesis breaks if crude sustains above $110 and RBI is forced to hike, choking the credit cycle that feeds infrastructure spending.

Conviction Picks

L&T HIGHEST CONVICTION

Down 7.4% in a single session on crude panic, yet its ₹5 lakh crore+ order book is entirely domestic infrastructure - the models see Friday's selloff as a gift at these VIX levels.

APL Apollo Tubes HIGHEST CONVICTION

Structural steel tube demand tied to India's construction cycle is insulated from crude - consecutive days at highest conviction confirms the models see this as the cleanest domestic capex proxy.

TCS

Dollar-denominated earnings offer a natural hedge as the rupee breaches 92.5 - the defensive anchor while BankNifty bears drive a 0.80 PCR.

Ashok Leyland HIGHEST CONFIDENCE

Commercial vehicle demand is a direct read on India's economic cycle - the models' highest confidence score here is a bet that domestic freight activity will survive the crude shock.

PFC

Power sector lending benefits from India's accelerating energy capex - with Tata Power also in conviction, the models see the power financing chain as a durable theme through the volatility.

One Thing to Watch

The Trump-China-Iran Hormuz diplomacy channel. If it produces a credible de-escalation signal this week, crude drops below $95 and every oversold capex name in this book rips. If it stalls and Brent sustains above $110, the VIX pushes toward 30 and even these conviction names face another leg down.

At 9:23 am, BSE was trading at 74,569.15, up by 5.23 points. Meanwhile, Nifty50 was trading at 23,167.75, up by 16.65 points.

Akshay Chinchalkar, Managing Partner and Head of Markets Strategy at the Wealth Company

Speaking stocks, and the nifty ended 2.1% down at 23151 as the crisis escalated. The India VIX jumped over 5%. Mid- and small caps fell more. All of the 12 NSE sectors dropped, with Metals sliding 4.8% and becoming the worst performers on the day. FMCG stocks fell the least, down 0.5%. Speaking nifty stocks, Tata Consumer Products was the day's best performer with a 2.4% gain while L&T was the top loser as it fell 7.5%. Technically speaking, the decline has brought the nifty to to a key weekly trendline originating from the June '22 lows. Additionally, the gap-up seen after President Trump dialed back on reciprocal tariffs - this area sits between 22923 and 23207 - is now a key downside zone bulls would like to defend. Any recovery will face resistance between 23306 and 23415. 

Speaking derivatives, on Friday, both the Nifty and the bank nifty contracts saw a fresh build up of short positions, but the bearish bets were more aggressive on the nifty. 

This morning, as of 630 am, Asian stocks were mostly in the red but the losses were minimal. Gold, silver and brent crude were mostly flat. S&P futures were higher by 0.4% and the Gift nifty was up 50 points.

Brent's May future contract was trading 0.50 per cent higher at $103.75 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange. 

Nifty index opened with a gap down of nearly 180 points near the 23500 zone and bears took charge from the very first tick. Sustained selling pressure dragged the index lower towards the 23100 zone as every minor bounce was met with fresh supply. The index has shed nearly 1300 points this week forming a large bearish candle on the weekly chart. The ongoing lower-low formation on daily as well weekly chart continues to signal persistent weakness in the trend. Selling remained intense throughout the week keeping bulls firmly on the back foot and highlighting the strength of bearish momentum in the market.

Now till it holds below 23300 zones, weakness could be seen towards 22900 then 22700 zones while hurdles have shifted lower to 23300 then 23500 zones.

On Option front, Maximum Call OI is at 24000 then 23500 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 23000 then 22500 strike. Call writing is seen at 23500 then 23600 strike while Put writing is seen at 23200 then 22800 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 22700 to 23700 zones while an immediate range between 22900 to 23400 levels.

S&P BSE Sensex

S&P BSE Sensex index opened with a gap down of nearly 600 points around 75400 zone and witnessed persistent selling pressure right from the start of the session. Bears remained firmly in control as the index was dragged lower towards 74400 zone with selling dominating throughout the day. On the charts, Sensex formed a bearish candle on both the daily and weekly timeframes continuing its lower top – lower bottom structure which reflects sustained weakness in the trend. Over the course of the week, the index has erased more than 4300 points highlighting the intensity of the ongoing bearish momentum.

Now till it holds below 75000 zones, weakness could be seen towards 74000 then 73500 zones while hurdles have shifted lower to 75000 then 75400 zones.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty index opened gap down by more than 500 points and remained under selling pressure for throughout the session as it drifted towards 53700 zones. It formed a Bearish candle on daily scale as selling pressure is seen at higher zones and forming lower highs structure from last few sessions. On weekly scale as well it formed a Big Bearish candle and it corrected more than 6000 points in last eight sessions.

Now till it holds below 54000 zones weakness could be seen towards 53500 then 53000 levels while on the upside hurdle is seen at 54000 then 54250 zones.

Stocks

Positive setup seen in Muthoot Finance, Syngene, Tata Consumer and Coal India

Weakness in LT, Kaynes, Bharat Forge, Motherson, CG Power, TMPV, Maruti, Grasim, KEI, CDSL, DLF, Eternal, M&M, AB Capital, Indigo and SBIN

Find Nidhi Sharma on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nidhi-sharma-5a7b65146

Disruption in global oil supply is turning out to be a shot in the arm for Russian oil industry, which has been reeling under US sanctions since it began its war against Ukraine in 2022. Read full report here

BSE market cap at the end of Friday (March 13) was 4,29,82,252.27