The exit polls got this one right.
The number said poll strategist Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj would flop on its electoral debut and the fledgling party is on course to do just that, with zero leads from the 238 seats it is contesting. It outfit started strongly, though, opening leads in four seats before fading away in the 2025 Bihar election.
The ruling alliance - led by the Bharatiya Janata Party and Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United, and including smaller allies like Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party - is on course for a gigantic win; at 11.30 am the alliance was leading in 190 seats, matching unanimous predictions of a big win.
In fact, at 9.16 am, a little over an hour into counting, the BJP-JDU alliance crossed the majority mark of 122 and, by 9.50 am, had crossed the 150-seat mark, raising the possibility of an absolute whitewash.
Bihar Results LIVE | RJD's Strong Fight Against BJP, Congress Weak Link Against NDA
Exit polls had given Kishor's Jan Suraaj a thumbs down; NDTV's poll of exit polls suggested the party would win only one seat. But the polls also suggested it could still play a big role in settling this Bihar election, particularly if it steals critical vote share from the opposition Mahagathbandhan alliance.
One exit poll, Peoples Pulse, predicted the Jan Suraaj could scoop up nearly 10 per cent of the votes - more than the Congress - which would be an excellent return for a party making its election debut.
READ | Prashant Kishor Party's Vote Share To Beat Congress': Exit Poll
But that too appears unlikely.
Data from the Election Commission's website indicated the Jan Suraaj had fewer votes than NOTA (i.e., the voters' 'none of the above' option) and even the Nationalist Congress Party from Maharashtra.
Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong.
The Jan Suraaj was seen as the 'X factor' in this election since Prashant Kishor, as a poll strategist, has an enviable track record of orchestrating big-ticket poll victories, having done so at least three times.
Once for Nitish Kumar in the 2015 Bihar election, for Jagan Mohan Reddy and the YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh in 2019, and for Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress in 2021.
Exit polls, though, disagreed. Many gave Kishor's party zero seats, and Kishor seemed unsurprised, saying before counting began that his party would either perform exceedingly well or crash.
The eastern state voted in a two-phase election on November 6 and 11.
