NDA To Finalise Bihar Seats After Poll Dates Come, To Curb Desertions

The NDA leadership will take a final call on the seat-sharing arrangement between allies after the Election Commission announces the dates for the Bihar election, sources in the BJP have said, adding that the strategy aims to stop ticket aspirants from switching parties if they do not get a poll pass.

Multiple reports have indicated that the Election Commission may announce the poll dates in the first fortnight of October. The current Assembly's term ends on November 22, and the poll process must be over by that day.

According to sources in the BJP, allies in the NDA are holding preliminary talks now, but a final decision on seat-sharing will be made after the poll dates are announced.

BJP sources say this is a strategic move. Many leaders who seek a party ticket jump ship at the last minute if the party leadership does not choose them as a candidate. A last-minute announcement, BJP sources said, can potentially prevent such desertions.

Leaders of the smaller parties in the NDA fold, the sources said, are bargaining hard for a good deal in the seat-sharing talks.

Chirag Paswan's Hard Bargain

Union Minister and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) Chirag Paswan, it is learnt, has demanded 40 seats as part of the seat-sharing deal after his party scored a 5/5 in the general election last year. Mr Paswan has been playing the posturing game for months now, with his supporters also projecting him as a Chief Minister face. While the young leader has stressed that he accepts Nitish Kumar as the NDA's Chief Minister face, his public remarks, including criticism of the current government, have raised eyebrows. Also significant is the past friction between Nitish Kumar and Chirag Paswan and his late father, veteran politician Ram Vilas Paswan.

BJP leaders say Mr Paswan follows Prime Minister Narendra Modi and won't leave NDA, but the LJP (Ram Vilas) leader has repeatedly said that he won't compromise on seat-sharing. BJP sources say the hard bargaining is also a political necessity for Chirag Paswan to pacify his followers.

BJP's Balancing Game

While Mr Paswan is asking for 40 plus seats, Nitish Kumar's JDU does not want him to get more than 20. But Chirag Paswan, BJP leaders say, is crucial for the NDA. In the last Assembly polls in 2020, Chirag Paswan's party contested solo on 135 seats. While LJP -- then undivided -- managed to win just one seat, vote division hurt Nitish Kumar's JDU. BJP does not want a repeat of this in this election.

Mr Paswan's party won five Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 general election. So, going by that arithmetic, he must get at least 30 Assembly seats in the seat-sharing this time. But a final call on this can only be expected after the poll dates are announced. BJP sources say Chirag Paswan's "sentiments would be considered".

NDA's Numbers Game

According to sources in the BJP, the seat-sharing formula is largely ready. Bihar has 243 Assembly seats and the two big NDA players -- JDU and BJP -- will be contesting on over 100 seats each. Out of the two, JDU may contest on more seats to send the message that it is the big brother in the alliance.

In fact, the two allies had a similar arrangement in the 2020 polls, but the BJP scored a better strike rate by winning 74 out of the 110 seats it contested. The JDU fought on 115 seats, but won only 43.

There are some key changes. Mukesh Sahni's Vikassheel Insaan Party, which contested 13 seats last time as part of NDA, is now in the Opposition bloc. And Upendra Kushwaha, who leads Rastriya Lok Morcha, contested the 2020 polls in alliance with Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM. Former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM is also part of NDA. So if the BJP and JDU contest on 100 seats each, the other three allies have about 40 seats to claim. This means Chirag Paswan may have to adjust. The question now is how much?