"The capital inflow measures by rbi will garner atleast US$50bn in FY27. This will result in  BoP coming close to neutral or even positive vs previous expectation of a large Bop deficit .

This will reduce the pressure on inr and significantly reduces the risk of large rate hikes. Indeed the capital inflow schemes provides monetary policy space to focus on domestic inflation and growth outlook."

This move, in my opinion, demonstrates a well-calibrated, wait-and-watch approach, especially given the significant global headwinds currently at play. With ongoing conflict in West Asia threatening energy supply chains and the critical Strait of Hormuz presenting substantial risks to India's oil imports, Governor Sanjay Malhotra and the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) choice to prioritize stability over any experimental steps seems both prudent and timely.

What really stands out is the unanimous 6-0 vote, reflecting a rare and clear consensus among policymakers. This underscores the delicate equilibrium between inflation and growth at the moment. On the positive side, domestic economic activity is showing resilience, with both manufacturing and services sectors continuing to expand. However, there are some notable risks on the horizon-sub-normal monsoon forecasts and currency volatility could impact this balance and need to be closely monitored.

It's also important to highlight that the RBI has already implemented a cumulative 125 basis points in rate cuts since February 2025, which has provided considerable support to borrowers and the broader economy. By retaining a neutral stance, the RBI has kept its options open for the future-ready to consider another rate cut if growth falters, or to hold steady if inflation becomes a concern. For India Inc. and retail borrowers, this decision is a signal to plan ahead, but with a sense of cautious optimism. The RBI is clearly keeping a close eye on the evolving situation, and it's wise for all of us to do the same as we move forward.

"The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% and retain a neutral policy stance reflects a calibrated approach amid persistent global uncertainties and evolving inflation dynamics. While the market was closely watching for signals on future rate actions, the decision provides much-needed predictability for lenders and financial institutions.

For NBFCs and fintech-led financial inclusion players, stable interest rates help preserve funding cost visibility and support sustainable credit expansion, particularly in underserved and semi-urban markets. At Ezeepay, we believe that policy stability is equally important as policy easing, as it enables institutions to plan their lending strategies more effectively while maintaining prudent risk management.

The RBI keeping the repo rate at 5.25% and maintaining a neutral stance boosts stability and market confidence. Though global tensions, such as those in West Asia, continue, the central bank's cautious approach displays trust in India's economic resilience.

This is especially good for the real estate sector. With interest rates holding steady, both buyers and investors can relax, knowing borrowing costs won't increase. Predictability in financing encourages steady demand for both residential and commercial properties, particularly in rapidly growing regions like Noida and Greater Noida.

Overall, this policy promotes long-term investments and growth in real estate, fostering a healthy environment for the sector.

"RBI has demonstrated that a) inflation concerns are more driven by global supply-side factors and raising domestic rates are unlikely to curb inflation pressures in the short-term b) growth slowdown is inevitable, revising down FY27 growth from 6.9% to 6.6%. However, we believe all eyes will be on US FOMC later this month, if US moves to a tightening bias, EM central banks are unlikely to have much choice especially when other DMs including EU and Japan are also expected to hike rates in the upcoming policy. Food inflation and worries around El Niño and fertiliser costs are also very justified. The intent to stabilize INR movement and garner foreign capital is evident with array of measures announced in a coordinated effort by the RBI and the Central Government. Both INR and G-Sec yields have reacted positively to the measures. A more stable rupee would also help contain imported inflation, a key driver of rising domestic inflation expectations.  Rate hike remains on the card in the H2 of the year but would be highly dependent on timelines of termination of war, domestic crop output and other central bank actions."

"The RBI stance of maintaining steady policy rates amidst an uncertain global backdrop helps keep the market sentiments steady.  Despite the geopolitical disruption in West Asia with large volatility in crude prices, feeding into both inflation and the external account, India's growth base has held its ground. The FY27 Union Budget has set aside Rs 12.22 lakh crore for capital expenditure, keeping the push on infrastructure firmly in place. Credit flows towards non-food bank credit grew 14.3% year-on-year to end-February and lending to industry rose 13.5%, both pointing to real activity in the productive economy. A small rate cut can further bolster lending and accentuate capex cycle. The RBI's own estimates, FY27 growth at 6.6% and inflation near 4.0%, describe a balanced or slow tapering in economy. For investors in infrastructure and other long-gestation assets, this signals a stable predictable growth. Steady rates and predictable liquidity are what allow capital to be committed to long projects." 

Ankit Agarwal, Managing Director, Alankit Limited

"The RBI's latest policy stance reflects a careful balancing act between supporting growth and containing emerging inflationary pressures. The central bank has revised its FY27 real GDP growth forecast downward to 6.6% from 6.9% , acknowledging the impact of global trade disruptions and a moderation in domestic economic momentum. At the same time, it has raised its FY27 average CPI inflation projection to 5.1% from 4.6% , driven largely by rising costs of base metals, rubber, and energy . Significantly, the Monetary Policy Committee has, for the first time, identified the West Asia crisis as a key macroeconomic risk , given its implications for crude oil prices, supply chains, and export prospects . Retaining a 'Neutral' policy stance underscores the RBI's commitment to data-driven flexibility ahead of the August 2026 meeting. By opting for a cautious pause rather than an aggressive rate hike, the central bank appears focused on allowing previous policy easing to fully transmit through the economy while remaining vigilant against supply-side inflationary shocks."

Arun Poddar, CEO, Choice International

The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% while maintaining a neutral stance reflects a balanced, pragmatic approach amid elevated global uncertainty and rising crude oil prices. The upward revision in CPI inflation projections to 5.1% and GDP growth outlook to 6.6% highlights the central bank's focus on price stability while recognizing the resilience of India's economy and strength of its macroeconomic fundamentals, as Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted that India's economy is "in a good spot."

    Beyond the rate decision, the policy's key highlight is its emphasis on enhancing India's appeal to global investors. The proposal to increase investment limits for NRIs and OCIs in listed equity instruments without SEBI registration, and to extend the same facility to all individual Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), is a significant step toward broadening participation in Indian capital markets, expected to improve market depth, liquidity and long-term capital inflows.

     Equally important is the removal of capital gains tax on government securities investments for foreign investors. This move strengthens the attractiveness of India's bond market and could encourage greater foreign participation in government debt. At a time of heightened global volatility, these measures reinforce investor confidence, support capital inflows, and reaffirm India's commitment to building deeper, more globally integrated financial markets, with the policy rate expected to remain low for an extended period.

Anand K Rathi - Co Founder of MIRA Money

"The MPC result was very much as expected. The rate decision, slowdown in GDP forecasts and inflation trajectory were all substantially in line with market expectations. For us, the main focus was to see how the RBI has supported currency stability. In that backdrop, initiatives to enable increased involvement from NRIs, OCIs and overseas investors as also to deepen debt market flows are heartening. These initiatives could help attract incremental capital into India and provide support to the rupee. Overall, while the policy itself was largely on expected lines, the measures announced on the currency and capital flow front stand out as a positive takeaway."

Vinod Francis, SGM & Chief Financial Officer, South Indian Bank 

"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% while maintaining a neutral stance reflects a balanced, prudent approach amid global uncertainties. With GDP growth revised to 6.6% and CPI inflation at 5.1% within the target range, the central bank rightly flags upward inflation pressures while demonstrating confidence in India's resilient economy. For the banking sector, this policy provides stability for asset-liability management and sustained credit growth. For borrowers, the status quo ensures no immediate change in loan servicing costs, offering a stable environment for home, vehicle, and business loans. The cautious neutral stance underscores the RBI's commitment to monitoring inflation and global developments before further action, with rates expected to remain low for an extended period. The regulatory measures are equally significant. The proposal to increase NRI/OCI investment limits in listed equity without SEBI registration, extended to all individual PROIs, plus the removal of capital gains tax on government securities for foreign investors, will strengthen foreign currency inflows and banking liquidity. For banks with strong NRI customer bases, the FCNR(B) deposit relaxation aids deposit mobilisation and funding flexibility. Improved forex liquidity and greater foreign participation in government bonds contribute to a stable operating environment. As Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted, India's economy is 'in a good spot,' and this policy appropriately balances growth with macroeconomic stability amid external uncertainty, creating a conducive environment for responsible credit expansion and financial inclusion."

Tribhuwan Adhikari, MD & CEO of LIC Housing Finance

"The RBI holding the repo rate at 5.25% and staying neutral was along expected lines, and it is a sensible call given the heightened global uncertainties. With the conflict in West Asia keeping crude elevated and inflation risks building, a steady hand on rates does more for the economy right now than a move in either direction.

For the housing sector, a stable interest rate regime provides a greater certainty to both lenders and homebuyers. The continuation of the current rate environment is expected to support borrower confidence, improve credit flow, and sustain housing demand across markets.

The growth forecast has been trimmed slightly, but the demand we see on the ground has been resilient. Housing sector should hold its momentum through the coming quarters."

Arvind Agarwal, MD, Bandhan Group

"Holding the repo rate at 5.25% and staying neutral is the right call for where we are. The conflict in West Asia, costlier crude and a volatile rupee are all pulling at the inflation outlook, and the RBI has kept its options open rather than commit early. That leaves it room to see how these external shocks feed through to prices and growth before it moves.

Even with the FY27 growth forecast at 6.6%, the picture at home is holding up. Consumption and investment are both steady, and the broader economy has not lost its footing. A pause gives businesses and markets something firm to plan against and keeps inflation expectations anchored, without putting growth at risk.

We also welcome the RBI easing the route for NRIs, OCIs and other overseas investors into Indian equities. It is a practical move that draws the diaspora deeper into our capital markets and widens the pool of foreign capital. Set against forex reserves of over USD $682.3 billion, it reinforces how solid India's external position has become.

If global conditions settle and domestic demand holds, India can keep growing without straining its macro stability."

MPC unanimously voted to keep the repo rate unchanged and was in line with expectations. The Growth and Inflation projections too aligned with broad market expectations.

To attract foreign investments :

* Increase the universe of the FAR securities.

* Concessional forex swap to incentivize ECB's by PSU's

* Hedging cost concession for  AD banks for raising fresh 3-5 year FCNR deposits.

* Restore the time limit for realization of export proceeds to 9 months

All these steps are expected to arrest currency depreciation and bring inflow, giving stability to FX and bond markets.

"The RBI's decision to keep policy rates unchanged underscores its commitment to balancing growth and inflation amid a challenging global backdrop. Policy stability is particularly important for sectors with long investment cycles such as real estate. We expect the residential sector to continue attracting both domestic and institutional capital, supported by strong demand fundamentals, disciplined supply and improving project execution. The current rate environment provides predictability for developers, homebuyers and investors while enabling sustained growth across the real estate value chain."

"The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% should be viewed as a signal of stability rather than a pause in growth. The real estate sector has already benefited from the cumulative rate reductions since early 2025; what the market needs now is visibility and predictability. In housing, sustained demand is built not by isolated rate cuts but by a prolonged period of confidence that allows consumers and businesses to plan for the long term.

At a time when inflationary pressures are being influenced largely by global supply-side factors rather than domestic demand, the RBI's calibrated approach helps preserve economic momentum while maintaining financial stability. For homebuyers, particularly salaried professionals, entrepreneurs and MSMEs, stable borrowing costs provide reassurance and support purchasing decisions.

More importantly, housing markets typically evolve in phases. The first phase is driven by affordability, bringing first-time buyers into homeownership. The second phase is driven by aspiration. When households experience repayment stability over an extended period, homeownership begins to create confidence, wealth accumulation and lifestyle aspirations. This often translates into demand for larger homes, integrated townships, better social infrastructure and premium living environments.

We are already witnessing this trend across emerging urban corridors and growth centres, where demand is expanding beyond entry-level housing towards mid-income, premium and luxury segments. For developers, such broad-based demand visibility encourages fresh investments, new project launches and long-term urban development. In that sense, today's policy decision not only supports homebuyers but also strengthens confidence across the entire housing value chain, from affordable housing to aspirational living."

Sidharth Chowdhry, Managing Director at Dalcore

"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% brings a sense of stability to the market, which is encouraging for both homebuyers and developers. Over the last few quarters, we have seen strong demand from buyers who are looking beyond short-term market fluctuations and focusing on long-term value, lifestyle, and connectivity.

In markets such as Gurugram, demand continues to be driven by improving infrastructure, expanding commercial hubs, and a growing preference for quality residential developments. For many homebuyers, consistency in interest rates is just as important as a rate cut because it allows them to plan their investments with greater confidence. At Dalcore, we believe the housing market will continue to witness healthy momentum, supported by strong end-user demand and positive economic fundamentals. Today's decision further reinforces confidence in the sector's long-term growth story." 

Sandeep Agarwal, Executive Director - Finance & Group CFO, Elan Group 

"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% adds a constructive layer of stability to an already resilient economic environment. With inflation easing and growth indicators showing positive momentum, today's policy direction reinforces confidence across long-term asset categories, including premium housing. In markets like NCR, where buyers prioritise well-designed, experience-led development, such policy cues help strengthen clarity and support investment decisions. As infrastructure continues to shape high-growth corridors, this balanced monetary approach is well placed to sustain momentum in the upper segments of real estate."

Rahul Singla, Director of Mapsko Group 

"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% reflects its continued focus on balancing growth and stability. The real estate market has shown impressive resilience, and the demand is strong in key cities. The real estate market has traditionally been viewed as one of the best options for building wealth for the future, and with supportive monetary policy, this trend would strengthen. Developers will benefit by having higher liquidity to plan and execute projects profitably."

"The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% reflects a balanced and prudent approach amid ongoing global uncertainties and inflationary pressures especially in the supply chain flow. For the real estate sector, policy stability is important as rate reductions help sustain buyer confidence and support long-term investment decisions. Homebuyers, particularly those considering purchases in the mid-income to luxury segments, will welcome the continuity in borrowing costs and EMI outflows. The unchanged rate environment has allowed the developers to plan project launches and smooth capital allocation with a focus on time delivery. As infrastructure development and housing demand continue to strengthen across key micro-markets, especially new emerging markets of Mumbai like Mira Bhayandar region, we remain optimistic about sustained momentum in the residential and commercial sector."

The RBI's latest Monetary policy announcement provides a stable operating environment for India's lending ecosystem at a time when global uncertainties continue to persist. The decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% while maintaining a neutral stance ensures continuity in borrowing costs, which is positive for retail customers, particularly in the affordable housing segment where repayment predictability remains a key factor in credit demand. While the RBI has marginally lowered its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.6% and upwardly revised CPI inflation projections to 5.1%, the outlook remains robust compared to most major economies. The policy's emphasis on maintaining adequate liquidity and its balanced approach between growth, inflation management and financial sector stability is encouraging. Overall, with the policy rate expected to remain low for an extended period, this balanced framework supports sustained financial inclusion across customer segments.

Murthy Nagarajan, Head - Fixed Income, Tata Asset Management

"RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and maintained its stance as Neutral. GDP growth has been revised to 6.60% from 6.90% and CPI inflation has been revised to 5.1% versus 4.4% projected in the previous policy meeting of April 2026. 

With CPI inflation revised higher, we may expect a rate hike in the coming months. However, the bond market has already factored 3 rate hikes, with the ten-year yields trading at 7% levels.

The bonds market is expected to trade range bound in the coming months with ten-year yields trading at 7 percent. This can undergo change if Crude oil prices trade higher than 100 dollar per barrel on a sustained basis.

The ten-year yields is trading in the band of 6.96% to 6.99% levels as market players expected no repo rate hike by RBI."

"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and maintain a neutral stance brings much-needed stability at a time when the global economic outlook remains uncertain amid the ongoing global uncertainities. For the housing finance sector, this continuity is a positive signal as it helps sustain borrower confidence and supports steady credit flow in the market. We are already seeing that homebuyers today are taking more informed, long-term decisions driven by affordability, financial planning, and lifestyle aspirations rather than reacting to short-term rate cycles. We believe that stable policy conditions and easier access to credit will continue to play a key role in supporting housing demand and enabling more aspiring buyers to move closer to homeownership."

In view of the expected holding by the RBI, the unanimous decision was appropriate. 5.25% remains the repo rate, while 5.50% remains the bank rate, maintaining the neutral stance. There has been a dramatic change in the global economy since April. Energy costs have increased and supply chains have been disrupted due to the conflict in West Asia. 

Inflation is forecast to reach 5.1%, almost 50 basis points above earlier projections, while GDP growth is forecast to be 6.6%, down from 6.9% for FY27. Despite this, India's domestic fundamentals remain relatively strong, as private consumption and fixed investment remain steady. 

There is an adequate buffer of forex reserves at $682.2 billion, which covers 11 months of imports. As a result of the expansion of the FAR route to include 15, 30, and 40 year G-secs, as well as the provision of concessional forex swaps for public sector borrowings, capital flows will be supported and funding costs will be reduced.  A stable interest rate environment should help sustain credit demand and support economic growth in the coming quarters.

The ordinance issued by the Government exempts capital gains and interest earned by FPIs from tax WEF 1 April 2026. The exemption is subject to FPIs "furnishing information to be prescribed", which requirements will, hopefully, be procedural in nature and not substantive. Funds and Offshore Banking Units in IFSC, registered as FPIs, may also be eligible for the exemption. Removal of this "friction" may also assist in inclusion of Government securities in global bond indices in a larger way, which could trigger more inflows into India eventually.

Rajeev Radhakrishnan, CFA, CIO - Fixed Income, SBI Mutual Fund

Announcements aimed at enabling dollar inflows are more significant in the near term, even though the overall policy stance has been broadly in line with expectations. With inflation projections being revised upwards, policy rates are expected to trend higher over the coming months. The concessional swap facility should help stabilise short‑end market rates and the foreign exchange market in the near term.

Dhawal Dalal, President and CIO - Fixed Income, Edelweiss Mutual Fund

"Whatever it takes." That sentence pretty much sumps up today's MPC policy's resolve which faced difficult terrain due to sharp uptick in crude oil prices and its 2nd round effect on the economy. While Repo Rate and stance have been kept unchanged at 5.25% and neutral for now, FY27 GDP growth is marked down to 6.6% and average CPI forecast is raised to 5.1%, with risk to the upside. At the same time, both GOI and RBI have announced a number of measures to augment much needed capital inflows. This should have a net positive impact on India's FX reserves and investor sentiment in the medium-term. That said, with average CPI expectations being raised, bond market investors will have to brace for a gradual increase in policy rates down the road, in our view.

Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd .

"Today's RBI policy reflects a dual-track strategy of maintaining monetary stability while actively defending the rupee through targeted capital flow incentives. By holding the repo rate steady at 5.25% and retaining a neutral stance, the MPC has prioritised growth and inflation balance, even as it raised FY26 inflation projection to 5.1% and trimmed growth outlook to 6.6%. At the same time, the policy introduces decisive measures to attract foreign capital-scrapping capital gains tax for eligible foreign investors in government bonds, easing FPI access limits, and incentivising NRI dollar deposits while subsidising hedging costs. These steps, combined with concessional forex swaps, are aimed at reversing outflows and stabilising FX markets. For equities and debt markets, this is supportive of liquidity and inflows, while for the rupee, it signals a clear intent to anchor expectations and reduce volatility amid global oil shocks and sustained foreign selling pressure."

 Sumit Singhania, Head of Research, Bajaj Broking 

"The Reserve Bank of India has adopted a pragmatic "wait-and-watch" strategy, holding the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% amidst a highly turbulent global backdrop. While domestic demand, private consumption, and services exports have exhibited strong resilience, intensifying global conflicts, supply disruptions, and elevated energy prices are beginning to weigh on economic activity. Compounded by a sub-normal monsoon forecast and El Niño risks, the RBI chief noted considerable risks to both growth and inflation, choosing to remain strictly data-dependent until greater clarity emerges.

Reflecting these headwinds, the central bank downgraded its FY27 Real GDP growth projection to 6.6% (down from 6.9%) and raised its FY27 inflation outlook to 5.1%. Although current CPI inflation remains below target, baseline projections indicate it could firm up to the upper range of the tolerance band by Q3FY27 due to an uncertain food price outlook and potential second-round generalization effects. The impact of these supply shocks is expected to noticeably weigh on the economy from Q4 onwards as higher energy costs pass through to retail products. 

In a highly positive move for the capital markets, the government has exempted Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) from capital gains tax on any interest earned from government securities. This fiscal cushion arrives at a crucial time, offering a strong shield to domestic markets as the RBI chief warned of volatile forex markets driven by shifting global sentiments"

Poonam Tandon, Chief Investment Officer, IndiaFirst Life

"As expected, the MPC unanimously voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and retained a neutral stance. The Governor highlighted the increased risks to growth and inflation arising from the duration and intensity of the conflict in the Middle East, while reiterating that the MPC will remain data-dependent and closely monitor developments. The RBI lowered the growth projection for FY 2026-27 by 30 bps to 6.6%, while CPI projections were raised by 50 bps to 5.1%. Additionally, the RBI announced measures to attract foreign capital, such as expanding the universe of FAR (Fully Accessible Route) securities, increasing limits for NRIs and OCIs in equities, and introducing concessional forex swaps, among others. Overall, the policy decision appeared balanced, with an emphasis on data dependence and measures to attract dollar inflows.

In parallel, the Government also through ordinance, exempted interest and capital gains on FPI investments in G-secs to further support capital inflows. This is positive for the FPIs investment in the government securities market"

Ashwani Dhanawat, Executive Director & Chief Investment Officer, Shriram General Insurance.

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee has held the repo rate steady at 5.25%, a decision that, on its surface, signals continuity but the revised forecasts embedded in today's statement tell a more cautious story.

On Inflation: The Comfort Zone is Narrowing

The upward revision in CPI projection - now 5.1% for the year, against the earlier estimate of ~4.6% - is the most consequential signal from today's policy. The trajectory is unambiguously front-loaded in its risk: Q2 at 5.1%, Q3 at 5.9%, before a modest easing to 5.4% in Q4. A Q3 print approaching 6% will keep the MPC on edge, given that it sits at the upper tolerance band of the 4±2% framework.

The RBI has been explicit about upside risks - global commodity shocks, supply chain disruptions, and, most critically, El Niño conditions. If the monsoon turns spatially skewed, the Q3 projection could easily breach the 6% handle. The pause today does not foreclose a rate action later in the year.

On Growth: Modest Downgrade, but Resilience Intact

The GDP growth revision from 6.9% to 6.6% reflects pragmatism, not alarm. The quarterly profile - 6.3% in Q2 before recovery to 6.8% in Q4 - suggests a mid-year soft patch, likely driven by global financial market volatility and weather-linked agricultural uncertainty. India's domestic demand story remains broadly intact, but the external environment is doing the committee no favours.

The Takeaway: Conditional Pause

Today's hold is a data-dependent pause, not a pivot. The MPC is effectively watching three variables closely before its next move: the actual monsoon distribution, global crude and commodity trajectories, and the Q1 CPI print. If the Q3 inflation forecast materialises near 5.9%, a 25 bps hike in the October policy cannot be ruled out.

Rohit Kishore, CEO, Hero Realty

"The RBI's decision provides much-needed stability amid global uncertainties. Predictable interest rates help businesses and consumers plan with confidence, while stable borrowing costs support homebuyers and investment activity. For the real estate sector, this move is expected to sustain buyer sentiment and contribute to steady, long-term growth."

Rajat Bokolia, CEO, Newstone

"The recent RBI MPC meeting has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, supporting the momentum for the real estate sector.  It translates into stable home loans, directly improving housing demand with better liquidity for developers. This will ensure developers to accelerate project launches and completion timelines, securing an environment of prosperity and reliance across key real estate markets."

Rishabh Periwal, Senior Vice President, Pioneer Urban Land & Infrastructure Ltd.

"The RBI Monetary Policy Committee's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% provides much-needed stability to the real estate sector.  A steady rate environment ensures predictability in home loan costs, encouraging buyer confidence and sustaining housing demand. For developers, stable funding conditions and improved liquidity visibility enable better planning of project launches and execution timelines. Overall, this decision reinforces a growth-oriented environment and strengthens confidence across key real estate markets."

Mohit Malhotra, Founder & CEO, NeoLiv

"The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate as a strategic approach to ensuring economic stability and controlling inflation. However, the growing chances of a rate cut are promising for the development sector. Lower interest rates would make financing more affordable for the mid segment projects encouraging more people town their dream home and fueling growth. For developers, this presents an exciting opportunity to accelerate project timelines, expand portfolios, and create more value for both investors and mid segment customers, driving the real estate industry forward with renewed momentum."

Over the past few months, the global economy has been shaped by heightened uncertainty, disruptions to key trade routes and supply chains, increased market volatility and cautious business sentiment. The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% bps aims at supporting economic growth and maintaining inflation stability across sectors. For the real estate sector, the lending rates are expected to remain steady, borrowers can continue to benefit from manageable EMIs and make informed home purchase decisions without concerns of immediate rate volatility. Importantly, the cumulative rate cuts witnessed over the past year have already improved affordability and savings for home loan customers. A stable interest rate environment strengthens buyer sentiment and consumer confidence which extendeds the spell of low home loan rates for borrowers. 

"The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% while retaining a neutral policy stance provides much-needed stability and predictability for investors. At a time when global uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and elevated energy prices continue to weigh on growth prospects, investors are increasingly looking to diversify beyond traditional asset classes.

With domestic interest rates remaining stable and Bitcoin currently trading at consolidated levels, many investors are viewing this phase as an attractive long-term accumulation opportunity. We are seeing growing interest from both retail and institutional participants who consider digital assets an important component of portfolio diversification and a potential hedge against global macroeconomic uncertainty. A stable domestic monetary environment enables investors to make more informed allocation decisions while maintaining a long-term investment perspective."

"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and maintain a neutral stance brings much-needed stability at a time when the global economic outlook remains uncertain amid the ongoing global uncertainities. For the housing finance sector, this continuity is a positive signal as it helps sustain borrower confidence and supports steady credit flow in the market. We are already seeing that homebuyers today are taking more informed, long-term decisions driven by affordability, financial planning, and lifestyle aspirations rather than reacting to short-term rate cycles. We believe that stable policy conditions and easier access to credit will continue to play a key role in supporting housing demand and enabling more aspiring buyers to move closer to homeownership."

The central bank's decision to maintain a status quo was broadly in line with expectations. It's reassuring to note that with today's announcements, the central bank continues to exhibit its focus on the larger macroeconomic picture while continuing to remain watchful of the evolving global scenario. While the central bank too acceded the risks to growth and inflation, relatively resilient domestic economic activity and improved macro fundamentals of the economy continue to provide some respite in an otherwise harsh environment.

The measures announced to attract foreign flows by the central bank and the government are a good move and a step in the right direction. Given the narrower interest rate differential between the US and Indian benchmark yields, these measures may of limited help in the near term but they do provide a much needed boost to investor sentiment.

"As expected, the MPC unanimously voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and retained a neutral stance. The Governor highlighted the increased risks to growth and inflation arising from the duration and intensity of the conflict in the Middle East, while reiterating that the MPC will remain data-dependent and closely monitor developments. The RBI lowered the growth projection for FY 2026-27 by 30 bps to 6.6%, while CPI projections were raised by 50 bps to 5.1%. Additionally, the RBI announced measures to attract foreign capital, such as expanding the universe of FAR (Fully Accessible Route) securities, increasing limits for NRIs and OCIs in equities, and introducing concessional forex swaps, among others. Overall, the policy decision appeared balanced, with an emphasis on data dependence and measures to attract dollar inflows.

In parallel, the Government also through ordinance, exempted interest and capital gains on FPI investments in G-secs to further support capital inflows. This is positive for the FPIs investment in the government securities market"

Govind Sankaranarayanan, Co-founder & COO, Ecofy

"The RBI MPC's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% reflects a continued focus on stability. The neutral stance supports a balanced approach to managing growth and inflation.

We see this stability as a positive for long-term sectors such as sustainable finance, and continue to work towards closing the climate finance gap. Stable policy conditions help improve confidence among financial service providers and enable wider adoption of emerging solutions like electric mobility and rooftop solar.

Moving forward, the focus will be on making green financing more accessible across diverse customer segments, supported by a stable policy environment

Vinod Francis, SGM & Chief Financial Officer, South Indian Bank 

"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% while maintaining a neutral stance reflects a balanced, prudent approach amid global uncertainties. With GDP growth revised to 6.6% and CPI inflation at 5.1% within the target range, the central bank rightly flags upward inflation pressures while demonstrating confidence in India's resilient economy. For the banking sector, this policy provides stability for asset-liability management and sustained credit growth. For borrowers, the status quo ensures no immediate change in loan servicing costs, offering a stable environment for home, vehicle, and business loans. The cautious neutral stance underscores the RBI's commitment to monitoring inflation and global developments before further action, with rates expected to remain low for an extended period. The regulatory measures are equally significant. The proposal to increase NRI/OCI investment limits in listed equity without SEBI registration, extended to all individual PROIs, plus the removal of capital gains tax on government securities for foreign investors, will strengthen foreign currency inflows and banking liquidity. For banks with strong NRI customer bases, the FCNR(B) deposit relaxation aids deposit mobilisation and funding flexibility. Improved forex liquidity and greater foreign participation in government bonds contribute to a stable operating environment. As Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted, India's economy is 'in a good spot,' and this policy appropriately balances growth with macroeconomic stability amid external uncertainty, creating a conducive environment for responsible credit expansion and financial inclusion."

"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% while maintaining a neutral stance reflects a balanced, prudent approach amid global uncertainties. With GDP growth revised to 6.6% and CPI inflation at 5.1% within the target range, the central bank rightly flags upward inflation pressures while demonstrating confidence in India's resilient economy. For the banking sector, this policy provides stability for asset-liability management and sustained credit growth. For borrowers, the status quo ensures no immediate change in loan servicing costs, offering a stable environment for home, vehicle, and business loans. The cautious neutral stance underscores the RBI's commitment to monitoring inflation and global developments before further action, with rates expected to remain low for an extended period. The regulatory measures are equally significant. The proposal to increase NRI/OCI investment limits in listed equity without SEBI registration, extended to all individual PROIs, plus the removal of capital gains tax on government securities for foreign investors, will strengthen foreign currency inflows and banking liquidity. For banks with strong NRI customer bases, the FCNR(B) deposit relaxation aids deposit mobilisation and funding flexibility. Improved forex liquidity and greater foreign participation in government bonds contribute to a stable operating environment. As Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted, India's economy is 'in a good spot,' and this policy appropriately balances growth with macroeconomic stability amid external uncertainty, creating a conducive environment for responsible credit expansion and financial inclusion."

Muninder Verma, CEO, M1 NXT

"The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% while retaining a neutral stance reflects a balanced approach amid rising global uncertainties. While the Indian economy has remained resilient despite spillovers from the West Asia conflict, the impact of higher energy prices, rising input costs, supply disruptions, and trade policy uncertainties is gradually becoming visible, especially for MSMEs that operate with tighter margins and working capital cycles.

Higher import costs and continued volatility in global supply chains may weigh on business activity going forward, making liquidity access and stable credit flow critical for MSMEs. In this environment, policy continuity and focus on resilience will play an important role in supporting MSME growth, trade activity, and overall economic stability."

Rishi Anand, (MD & CEO, Aadhar Housing Finance) 

"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% with a neutral stance reflects the balanced approach amidst global uncertainties and rising inflationary pressures. Macroeconomic stability is a crucial issue especially in the current climate of rising fuel and gas prices, increase in input costs and currency devaluation contributing to inflationary fears.

For the housing finance sector, a stable interest rate environment is a certainty for both lenders and homebuyers, especially in the low-Income housing category where affordability remains a crucial issue. Policy continuity is likely to support consumer confidence, credit growth and demand for homeownership across Bharat, while growth and inflation risks are balanced."

Saurabh Bansal, Founder, Finatwork Investment Advisor, a SEBI RIA (Registered Investment Advisor)

The RBI's decision reflects a shift from supporting growth to preserving macroeconomic stability. With inflation remaining benign but global risks elevated, the central bank appears to be prioritising flexibility over committing to a particular rate trajectory. The policy is less about today's repo rate and more about keeping room to respond to evolving risks around oil, currency, and global growth.

Shubham Gupta, CFA, co-founder of Growthvine Capital

The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and retain the neutral stance was largely in line with expectations. However, the policy clearly reflects a more cautious assessment of the economic environment. The RBI has revised its FY27 GDP growth forecast downward to 6.6% from 6.9%, while simultaneously increasing its inflation forecast to 5.1% from 4.6%. These revisions acknowledge the twin challenges of slowing global growth and rising inflationary pressures arising from elevated crude oil prices, rupee weakness, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, and weather-related uncertainties.

Despite the upward revision in inflation projections, the RBI appears comfortable that underlying inflation pressures remain manageable at this stage. As a result, the central bank has chosen to remain patient rather than react prematurely through policy tightening. The decision to retain the neutral stance suggests that policymakers are seeking greater clarity on the trajectory of food inflation, monsoon developments, commodity prices, and external risks before considering any change in rates.

The revised forecasts also indicate that the RBI now sees a more challenging macroeconomic backdrop, where growth risks and inflation risks are rising simultaneously. In such an environment, preserving policy flexibility becomes critical. The central bank has therefore avoided sending a strong hawkish signal while ensuring that inflation risks remain firmly on its radar.

Going forward, markets are likely to focus less on near-term rate actions and more on the RBI's approach towards liquidity management, rupee stability, and inflation control. With system liquidity remaining comfortable and the rate cycle currently on pause, tools such as liquidity operations, yield curve management measures, and forex market interventions could play a more important role in shaping financial conditions over the coming months. Overall, the policy reinforces the RBI's data-dependent approach as it seeks to balance inflation concerns with the need to support growth amid an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Prashant Mishra, founder and CEO, Agnam advisors

The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% was largely on expected lines and reflects a cautious approach in an environment that continues to present several uncertainties. With crude oil prices remaining elevated, the rupee under pressure, and the full impact of the monsoon yet to be known, maintaining status quo was the most sensible course of action. The downward revision in GDP growth to 6.6% from 6.9% is a realistic acknowledgement of the global challenges facing economies today, including geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation in developed markets, and their impact on capital flows and currencies. While India's long-term growth story remains strong, the path ahead is likely to be less smooth than initially expected. It is important to note the upward revision in inflation to 5.1%, which highlights the risks posed by higher energy costs and the possibility of food inflation if monsoon conditions disappoint. For borrowers, this means EMIs are unlikely to change immediately, but expectations of significant rate cuts over the next couple of quarters may need to be tempered. For investors, the focus should move beyond the headline rate decision and toward the RBI's assessment of inflation, liquidity, and currency stability. In this backdrop, portfolio discipline remains more important than aggressive repositioning. Short- to medium-duration fixed-income investments continue to look reasonably placed, while equity investors should remain selective rather than chase broad market themes.

"The RBI additional measures in the monetary policy have been suggested with an intent to increase foreign capital at a point in time where there is increased currency volatality. The measures are expected to attract foreign capital helping counter rupee depreciation. The increased limits in equity instruments attract more foreign exchange in the equity markets , increasing the foreign exchange reserves for the country."

In view of the expected holding by the RBI, the unanimous decision was appropriate. 5.25% remains the repo rate, while 5.50% remains the bank rate, maintaining the neutral stance. There has been a dramatic change in the global economy since April. Energy costs have increased and supply chains have been disrupted due to the conflict in West Asia. 

Inflation is forecast to reach 5.1%, almost 50 basis points above earlier projections, while GDP growth is forecast to be 6.6%, down from 6.9% for FY27. Despite this, India's domestic fundamentals remain relatively strong, as private consumption and fixed investment remain steady. 

There is an adequate buffer of forex reserves at $682.2 billion, which covers 11 months of imports. As a result of the expansion of the FAR route to include 15, 30, and 40 year G-secs, as well as the provision of concessional forex swaps for public sector borrowings, capital flows will be supported and funding costs will be reduced.  A stable interest rate environment should help sustain credit demand and support economic growth in the coming quarters.

"The policy has taken a balanced approach of maintaining liquidity and growth along with keeping a watch on inflation. The shortage of dollar liquidity in the system has been addressed by a multi-pronged approach of increasing limits and reducing the cost burden on market players and FPIs. This should yield positive results in terms of inflows in the medium term."

Kirthi Chilukuri, Founder & Managing Director, Stonecraft Group

"The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% reflects a balanced and measured approach towards supporting growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability. For the real estate sector, policy consistency is a positive signal as it allows both developers and homebuyers to make long-term decisions with greater confidence.

We continue to witness strong demand for quality real estate, particularly in growth-driven markets such as Hyderabad, where infrastructure expansion, a thriving business ecosystem, and sustained housing demand continue to attract both end-users and investors. With financing conditions remaining supportive and buyer sentiment staying positive, we believe the sector is well-positioned for steady and sustainable growth in the coming quarters," 

Sidharth Chowdhry, Managing Director at Dalcore.

"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% brings a sense of stability to the market, which is encouraging for both homebuyers and developers. Over the last few quarters, we have seen strong demand from buyers who are looking beyond short-term market fluctuations and focusing on long-term value, lifestyle, and connectivity.

In markets such as Gurugram, demand continues to be driven by improving infrastructure, expanding commercial hubs, and a growing preference for quality residential developments. For many homebuyers, consistency in interest rates is just as important as a rate cut because it allows them to plan their investments with greater confidence. At Dalcore, we believe the housing market will continue to witness healthy momentum, supported by strong end-user demand and positive economic fundamentals. Today's decision further reinforces confidence in the sector's long-term growth story,"

Anil Mittal, Chief Financial Officer, Smartworld Developers 

"The RBI's decision to hold the repo rate at 5.25% is a welcome and prudent move that reinforces stability across the housing market. For developers, a steady rate environment improves predictability in planning, pricing, and execution, particularly for large-format and premium projects with longer delivery cycles. For homebuyers, it keeps borrowing costs anchored, supporting confident and well-informed purchase decisions. Against a backdrop of heightened global uncertainty, this continuity in policy is precisely what sustains buyer sentiment and underpins demand. We see the central bank's measured, growth-supportive approach as a clear positive for the sector, one that balances near-term resilience with long-term momentum,"

"The RBI's decision to hold the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance is in line with expectations, given how materially the macro backdrop has shifted since April.

Crude remaining elevated above $90 per barrel, WPI running at 8.3%, and a rupee that has depreciated over 6% this year have collectively tilted the inflation risk to the upside. The pressure is largely supply-driven, which is why a rate hold rather than a hike remains the appropriate response for now. Tightening into a supply shock would weigh on growth without resolving the underlying cost push."

Parvinder Singh, CEO, Trident Realty

The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged is a welcome signal of stability in the current economic environment. Stability in interest rates will provide confidence to prospective buyers, and it allows them to make long-term financial commitments with greater certainty. For developers, a predictable rate environment supports better planning and execution while helping to maintain the momentum across the sector. An unchanged rate environment will support investment decisions and provide greater visibility for long-term planning.

Aman Shharma, Managing Director and Founder, Aarize Group

RBI's decision to hold repo rate steady is a welcome signal of stability in the current economic environment. It brings continuity for homebuyers as EMIs remain unchanged, helping them plan their finances with greater confidence. While global headwinds and input costs continue to pose challenges, a stable rate environment allows developers to focus on execution and timely delivery instead of reacting to volatility. For the sector, this stability helps to sustain buyer sentiment and keeps investment momentum intact, particularly in markets driven by end users. It's a measured move that supports sustained long-term housing demand. 

Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader, Economic Advisory, PwC India

The MPC pause on the rate and no change in stance is as per our expectations. A rate action was not warranted given that inflation is still within the targeted range. The RBI has lowered the growth projections and increased the inflation projections. These are understandable, but the important point is that the Governor has flagged significant downside risks to the 6.6% growth rate and 4.7% inflation projections. Clearly, the RBI is signalling that there are strong headwinds and is possibly landing the message in tranches that, in the event the Middle East conflict drags on, there would be a significant downside to growth. The inflation projection of 5.9% in Q3 is very close to the upper limit of 6% of the target band. If the inflation prints come in close to these projections and the upward risks continue, then the MPC could change its stance in the next meeting and press the rate increase button in its December meeting.

Dr. Ravi Singh - Chief Research Officer - Master Capital Services Limited 

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee concluded its June 3-5 meeting on Friday with MPC unanimously deciding to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, maintaining the neutral stance. MPC highlighted the increasing uncertainties on a global scale stemming from the extended conflict in West Asia, volatility in energy prices, disruptions to the supply of goods and a weakening of the rupee. On the growth front, the Governor revised the FY27 real GDP forecast lower to 6.6% from 6.9% earlier, noting that elevated global energy prices are weighing on economic momentum and inflation. Further, CPI for FY27 is now projected at 5.1%, up approximately 50 basis points from the prior estimate with overall risks to inflation that are skewed to the upside, including possible second-round impacts of increased input costs. CPI edged up to 3.5% in April 2026, driven primarily by food prices, with the outlook remaining uncertain on account of sub-normal monsoon forecast. Now with the recent hike in retail fuel prices which holds a direct impact of around 36 basis points to headline inflation and along with second-order effects will also reflect through CPI in the months ahead.

On investment related measures, RBI is expanding the universe with new issuances of 15, 30 and 40-year government securities under the Fully Accessible Route. On the other hand, Centre issued ordinance, exempting FPIs from capital gains tax and interest income on investments in government bonds. The Governor also proposed increasing investment limits for NRIs and OCIs in equity instruments traded on Indian stock exchanges without requiring SEBI registration. Together these measures aim to make investment option more attractive for foreign capital, push foreign participation in Indian markets and ease capital inflows.

On RBI MPC Announcement 

RBI as widely expected has kept the interest rates unchanged with a continuation of the neutral stance, signifying the continued faith in domestic growth and demand while acknowledging that the global uncertainties do exist and will be closely watched to be nimble on future policy actions

RBI governor acknowledged the concern around exchange rate volatility stating that disorderly market conduct and speculation will be dealt with through necessary interventions without trying to target a specific exchange rate. This is important given the US governments focus to tag countries as currency manipulators when they see market intervention from the relevant countries. This communication helps protect sovereignty while respecting theme of free markets.

All the measures announced by the RBI governor were focused around increasing access to foreign exchange through increased foreign capital, fuelling long term growth support while also boosting foreign exchange reserves to deal with the increased currency volatality, reflecting a mature approach from a stable regulator.

The new measures around swap lines being made available to bank and public sector undertakings alike, help rationalise currency hedging costs while attracting more foreign capital. Increasing the specified list of government securities  to include longer tenure securities ( earlier it was upto 10 years)  - 15 year , 30 year and 40 years will attract patient and high quality foreign capital. Exempting capital gains tax was to increase the attractiveness of the government securities to foreign investors at a time when having adequate foreign capital is prudent. It's imperative to state that it is prudent and we don't need the reserves as we have a foreign exchange reserve balance of 680 plus billion dollars. There have been some relaxations on limits for retail investors - both NRI / OCI and persons outside India and extension of time period for realisation of export proceeds. We expect this to have knock on effects in the form of increased capital immediately within the next 2 months.

"The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25 per cent reflects a balanced approach towards supporting economic growth while ensuring macroeconomic stability amid the current global uncertainties. For the real estate sector, this move provides much-needed certainty and reinforces confidence among both homebuyers and developers. Stable interest rates enhance affordability and encourage buyers to move forward with their purchase decisions, while enabling developers to plan investments, launch new projects, and execute ongoing developments with greater confidence. Overall, the decision is expected to sustain positive market sentiment, support housing demand, and strengthen the sector's growth momentum in the months ahead."

"The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% reflects a balanced approach towards supporting economic growth while remaining vigilant on inflationary pressures. For the residential real estate sector, policy stability is often more valuable than frequent rate movements, as it provides confidence to homebuyers, investors and developers alike.

For homebuyers, a stable interest rate environment preserves affordability and enables long-term financial planning without concerns of rising EMI obligations. Developers benefit from greater predictability in capital allocation and project execution, while investors gain confidence from a stable macroeconomic backdrop and sustained demand fundamentals.

The housing market has continued to demonstrate resilience, driven by strong end-user demand and rising aspirations for homeownership. With borrowing costs remaining stable and demand momentum intact, we expect the sector to maintain its growth trajectory across key residential markets."

The central bank ticked all boxes to spur dollar inflows and stabilise the currency, signaling that all hands are on deck. Announcements included widening the universe of eligible bond securities, discounted swap windows for FCNR B deposits, moves to boost concessional external commercial borrowings, amongst others. Separately, tax breaks in withholding (currently 20%) and capital gains for the debt investors. 

Benchmark rates were held unchanged, but the policy guidance was cautious on inflationary risks from the ongoing West Asia crisis and sub-normal southwest monsoon. Concern over inflation was reflected by 50bp upward revision in the FY27 inflation projection, while the view on growth was tempered. The hawkish pause underscored the central bank's resolve to contain inflationary expectations and defend the currency, while recognizing that tighter policy rates have historically only had a limited impact on exchange-rate dynamics.

"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate steady at 5.25% gives homebuyers all across a sense of stability amid a period of uncertainty, especially in the premium markets like MMR, NCR, and Pune. While borrowers may not see immediate relief in EMIs, the maintenance of stable borrowing costs helps buyers plan better and reinforces market confidence. At Tribeca, we believe that predictable financial conditions are essential for steady real estate growth, encouraging sustained demand and supporting the aspirations of new homeowners."

"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged brings much-needed stability at a time when global uncertainties continue to weigh on economies worldwide. However, India remains well-positioned, supported by strong domestic demand and improving economic fundamentals.

For NBFCs, a stable interest rate environment provides greater clarity for planning and lending responsibly across retail, self-employed, and MSME customers. As more Indians gain access to formal credit, it is important to balance growth with prudent risk management and financial inclusion.

The financial sector today is stronger than it has been in years, with healthier balance sheets, better asset quality, and rapid digital adoption. Continued policy stability will help sustain credit flow, support entrepreneurship, and contribute to India's long-term growth journey."

The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% while maintaining a neutral stance reflects a balanced, pragmatic approach amid elevated global uncertainty and rising crude oil prices. The upward revision in CPI inflation projections to 5.1% and GDP growth outlook to 6.6% highlights the central bank's focus on price stability while recognizing the resilience of India's economy and strength of its macroeconomic fundamentals, as Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted that India's economy is "in a good spot."

Beyond the rate decision, the policy's key highlight is its emphasis on enhancing India's appeal to global investors. The proposal to increase investment limits for NRIs and OCIs in listed equity instruments without SEBI registration, and to extend the same facility to all individual Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), is a significant step toward broadening participation in Indian capital markets, expected to improve market depth, liquidity and long-term capital inflows.

Equally important is the removal of capital gains tax on government securities investments for foreign investors. This move strengthens the attractiveness of India's bond market and could encourage greater foreign participation in government debt. At a time of heightened global volatility, these measures reinforce investor confidence, support capital inflows, and reaffirm India's commitment to building deeper, more globally integrated financial markets, with the policy rate expected to remain low for an extended period.

Shekhar G Patel, President, CREDAI said "RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, while maintaining a neutral policy stance and retaining the CRR at 3%, indicates a calibrated response amidst the current global economic environment. With geopolitical tensions, inflationary concerns, and currency volatility continuing to influence markets globally, policy continuity will bode well for the real estate sector and help sustain overall market stability.

The revised GDP growth projection of 6.6% reflects confidence in the resilience of domestic economic activity despite external uncertainties. With borrowing costs remaining steady, housing demand, particularly across mid-income and premium segments, is expected to remain resilient. At the same time, the policy reflects a balanced approach towards supporting growth while remaining watchful of inflationary risks. However, continued policy support will remain important to address the demand-supply gap in affordable housing.

The growth prospects of the sector have remained stable and disciplined, supported by infrastructure expansion and increasing preference for organised developments across major cities. Given the neutral stance, the announcement is expected to further strengthen investor, end-user, and homebuyer confidence."

Sahil Agarwal, CEO, Nimbus Group says, The RBI's decision appears both prudent and timely, viewed in the context of the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Crude prices remain high and inflation risks have not disappeared. It has brought relief and provides continuity in financial planning for the real estate sector. It allows projects already under execution to move ahead without facing an unexpected increase in financing costs while leaving room for future policy action if conditions demand it. In short, the RBI has chosen caution over reaction, and we welcome it.

B.K. Malagi, Vice Chairman, Experion Developers, said, "The real estate sector has demonstrated considerable resilience over the past few years, and a steady repo rate only adds to that strength. For the housing market, this translates into sustained sales velocity, healthy project launches, and improved buyer absorption. We are in a period of genuine momentum, and such an announcement ensures that momentum compounds rather than corrects."

Mitul Jain, Managing Director, SPJ Group: Maintaining the repo rate with a neutral stance is a pragmatic move in an environment still shaped by global headwinds. For borrowers, this effectively means EMIs are likely to remain in the same range for now, without any immediate easing in interest burden. While a slight rate cut would have offered some relief. At this stage, consistency in policy may actually prove more valuable than short-term rate adjustments.

"While the decision to keep policy rates unchanged and maintain a neutral stance was largely in line with expectations, the inflation outlook effectively serves as a signal of continued policy caution, or in a way precursor to hawkishness. With inflation projected to rise to 5.9% in Q3, it is unlikely that domestic borrowing costs for Indian corporates will revert to pre-Gulf crisis levels. Debt markets are expected to gradually incorporate this reality, resulting in a sequential increase in funding costs. In our view, the first policy rate hike could materialize by February 2027, marking the beginning of a formal rate-tightening cycle and eventually leading to higher borrowing costs even for EBLR-linked retail loans.

At the same time, the decision to expand foreign investor participation in longer-tenor government securities through the FAR route is a constructive measure. It not only has the potential to support foreign capital inflows and provide stability to the rupee, but also helps mitigate any crowding-out effects within private corporate borrowers arising from higher government borrowing requirements owing to the prevailing crisis." 

Unlike many other Asian central banks, the MPC has maintained its pragmatic approach of using policy rates for inflation management while relying on other measures for currency support. The policy rate and neutral stance have been maintained despite elevated global uncertainty and energy prices.

Nonetheless, the 50-bps increase in FY27 inflation projections to 5.1% and core inflation to 4.7% highlights forward-looking risks stemming from the prolonged West Asia conflict and monsoon-related uncertainties. The FY27 growth projection has also been moderated to 6.6%.

The reaffirmation of the RBI's commitment to providing sufficient liquidity is a welcome relief. However, what clearly stole the show was the series of measures announced to boost dollar inflows, including an expanded FAR security universe, a fully hedged facility for ECBs, and 3-5 year FCNR(B) deposits.

Separately, the government has relaxed taxation rules for FPIs investing in G-Secs, which could also enhance the likelihood of their inclusion in the Bloomberg Global Bond Index.

Overall, while the overhang of potential policy rate hikes remains in forthcoming policies, immediate concerns have been adequately addressed and are likely to trigger a market rally across the yield curve.

"The RBI Monetary Policy Committee's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, with the SDF at 5.00% and MSF and Bank Rate at 5.50%, reflects a calibrated and prudent approach in the current macroeconomic environment. By maintaining a neutral stance, the RBI has signalled its intent to closely monitor evolving inflation trends, global uncertainties and crude oil price volatility before undertaking further policy action. For the microfinance sector, rate stability is constructive as it supports predictability in borrowing costs and enables continued credit flow to low-income households, women entrepreneurs and underserved rural communities. With India's growth trajectory remaining resilient and FY27 GDP growth projected at 6.6%, supported by domestic demand, government capex and consumption, we believe the policy environment remains conducive for inclusive credit growth and livelihood creation at the grassroots."

Manik Malik, CEO & President, BPTP  "The Reserve Bank of India's decision to maintain a stable repo rate reflects a focus on macroeconomic stability, which is important for the real estate sector. A stable interest rate environment supports predictability for both homebuyers and developers, aiding financial planning and investment decisions.

The residential market has demonstrated resilience in recent quarters, supported by end-user demand and improving sentiment. Continued stability in interest rates can help sustain this momentum, particularly across mid and premium housing segments, while maintaining overall market confidence."

Vikram Chhabra, Senior Economist, 360 ONE Asset

This was a high-stakes MPC meeting, with the rupee under pressure, inflation rising, and growth set to soften. Holding the rate was the right call. A rate-led defence of the currency would have been an imprecise instrument at this juncture, and it made sense to look through any temporary spike in inflation while awaiting clarity on the monsoon outlook and the West Asia conflict. Instead, the RBI addressed the root issue, announcing measures to improve capital flows. We expect pressure on the rupee to ease from here. However, the growth-inflation trade-off is becoming more acute, and the RBI may need to weigh rate hikes in upcoming meetings.

Akshat Siddhant,  Lead Quant Analyst, Mudrex

Bitcoin dipped below $62,000 on Thursday, sparking more than $1.5 billion in leveraged crypto liquidations over 24 hours, including over $800 million in Bitcoin and $386 million in Ethereum positions. Bitcoin is currently attempting to hold around the $64,000 level, down more than 13% over the past week and roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high, with its market cap slipping to approximately $1.27 trillion. The drivers of this sell-off are macro rather than crypto-native as competition from gold and artificial-intelligence stocks increases while investors reassess Federal Reserve rate-cut prospects. The technical picture is firmly bearish. Bitcoin remains below its 20, 50, and 100-day moving averages, while the weekly RSI has fallen to the low 20s, indicating deeply oversold territory that has historically marked important cycle lows, though oversold conditions can persist as long as ETF outflows continue. 

Mohit Goel, Managing Director, Omaxe Ltd.

"Keeping the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% sends a reassuring message at a time when global markets are dealing with considerable uncertainty. With geopolitical tensions continuing to impact energy markets and inflation risks still present, maintaining stability allows businesses and consumers to plan with greater confidence.

For the real estate sector, this is a positive development. Stable borrowing costs help sustain buyer sentiment and support decision-making for both homebuyers and investors. A steady interest rate environment will help maintain this momentum in the months ahead."

Amrita Gupta, Director, Manglam Group

"The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% provides continuity and stability at a time when global economic conditions remain dynamic. For the real estate sector, policy consistency is important as it helps sustain buyer confidence and supports long-term decision-making, particularly among end-users.

A stable interest rate environment complements the strong underlying fundamentals of the sector by keeping homeownership accessible and supporting steady demand. More importantly, it allows the industry to focus on creating long-term value through thoughtful planning, quality development and sustainable growth, which will continue to be key drivers of the sector's evolution."

Rajan Luthra, CFO, Action Construction Equipment Ltd.

The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% reflects a balanced and prudent approach amid evolving global economic conditions. A stable interest rate environment provides businesses with greater visibility for planning investments, capacity expansion, and long-term infrastructure development. For the construction and equipment industry, policy stability is particularly important as it supports project execution, financing confidence, and sustained demand across key sectors. Coupled with the Government's continued emphasis on infrastructure creation, manufacturing growth, and logistics development, the decision reinforces a positive outlook for the sector. We remain optimistic about the opportunities ahead and believe that stable monetary conditions will continue to support India's infrastructure ambitions and economic growth trajectory.

Akash Pharande, Managing Director, Pharande Spaces

A 5.25% repo rate opens fresh pathways for real estate investors. Fixed deposit investments lost some of their pull, since people moved toward stronger returns ,so they started buying residential and commercial space plus warehousing properties. Right now the market doesn't feel like 2008 euphoria because banks stay firm on their lending rules and keep loan-to-value ratios on the lower side. Investors will likely lean toward assets that can deliver about 6 to 7 percent net rental income, since these will give a small edge in overall profit. Fresh money should drift into REITs and InvITs because their distribution yields outperform their debt service costs. And the investor's own rhythm at 5.25% is pretty much: "Use modest leverage, wait calmly, and sidestep speculative land flipping."

Gunjan Goel, Director, Goel Ganga Developments

A 5.25% repo rate carries a special relevance for women in real estate-homebuyers, entrepreneurs,and investors basically. The government interest subvention programs make it easier for people to become homeowners, because they help lower their monthly payments,by a noticeable amount. Women-led startups in retail or warehousing can push their operations forward more smoothly, since they tend to receive affordable working capital loans, for everyday costs. With lower interest rates women are more likely to put money into REITs and acquire property with their families, so they can build lasting wealth. The rate by itself won't close the gender gap completely, but it tilts the terrain, a little. This lower cost of money helps women reach financial independence more easily than before. Also,yes, investment money will flow into REITs and InvITs because their distribution rates can beat their debt payment rates. The investor's mantra at 5.25% is: "Leverage lightly, hold patiently, and avoid speculative land flips.

Raghunandan Saraf, Founder and CEO, Saraf Furniture

The retail industry depends on customer feelings because the 5.25 percent repo rate indicates people should shop with restraint instead of spending freely. The decrease in interest rates enables people to pay lower EMIs for their personal and vehicle loans which results in increased available money. The banks that exercise caution will begin to enforce stricter credit score requirements which creates disadvantages for some people. The retail real estate market which includes malls and high streets presents a divided situation. More people visit stores because their spending capacity increases but online shopping continues to compete strongly. The winning move? Experiential retail. Retailers maintain their capacity for controlled business growth because they currently manage all their debts. The force creates a gentle push which leads to progress.

Vijay Raundal, Director, Teerth Realties

The most interest-sensitive real estate 

investment exists in Land. The vacant land holding costs decrease to 5.25% repo rate yet this decrease does not drive investors to purchase land. Investors use price signals to determine market movement instead of relying on interest rate changes. The developers who possess substantial financial resources can now acquire multiple land parcels which they will use in their upcoming development plans for urban areas situated beyond city centers. The agricultural land transformation into non-agricultural land receives financial support through affordable credit which funds both approval processes and required payments. The quote to remember: "Land at 5.25% is a patient chess move, not a lottery ticket." The land registries will experience a gradual increase during the next six-month period.

Hardik Shah, Director,Shyam Group-Dholera SIR

The core infrastructure system basically runs as a base where it gets a little tune up via the 5.25% repo rate. With these lower interest rates organizations can snag bonds and bank loans for their road port and power project funding needs. But India's infrastructure troubles don't stop at interest costs, because the bigger issue is project execution and land acquisition, you know. The present rate also helps state-owned enterprises and private concessionaires swap out their older high-cost borrowings, it eases financing expenses while letting them keep things running and win new contracts. There's even a small uplift in support for the National Infrastructure Pipeline. The 5.25% rate should keep ongoing projects alive that need quick cash until they reach operational status, and it will not really kick off new project development though.

Keshav Mangla, GM Business Development at Forteasia Realty

The 5.25% interest rate provides office buildings with improved operational efficiency. Corporations prefer to secure their leases immediately because lower capital expenses make their leasing costs more affordable. The current hybrid work environment prevents businesses from returning to their former office needs although some people will eventually return to work. Companies will focus on cost reduction which will lead to increased demand for Grade A buildings located in tier-2 cities. The current interest rate enables commercial mortgage-backed securities refinancing which provides the market with additional funds. The current repo rate demonstrates commercial real estate sector operations because it offers investors stable pathways to grow their businesses through controlled development.

Aman Gupta, Director, RPS Group

The RBI's current 5.25% repo rate establishes an unambiguous message that home loans became more accessible. Developers experience project delivery acceleration because their financial expenses decreased which results in their need for less construction materials. Buyers experience decreased monthly payment amounts which motivates undecided customers to make purchasing decisions. The current situation does not represent a market surge but rather a planned market restoration. Mid-range housing prices will continue to rise steadily while luxury housing prices require additional time to develop. The actual situation shows that people can afford more now because interest rates remain unchanged which eliminates the fear of sudden interest rate increases. Real estate operations become most effective at 5.25% because it establishes a point where investors must proceed with caution before they choose to invest in their business.

Shorab Upadhyay, Managing Director,TRG Group

The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged creates a stable base, while global markets deal with big geopolitical and economic issues. For the real estate world, having consistent policies matters just as much as rate cuts. It lets developers and buyers plan long-term more confidently.

Right now, rates should help keep housing demand strong, especially in areas where new infrastructure is boosting growth. With steady loan conditions, devs can keep investing in good projects and timely deliveries. This boosts positive feelings in the market. The sector's moving toward steady and mature growth, backed by solid demand and better economy basics.

Naveen Kulkarni, Chief Investment Officer, Axis Securities PMS.

"The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate while keeping its neutral stance was anticipated in what was a "wait-and-watch" policy. With the ambiguity around the West Asia war and no clear outcome on the ceasefire, volatile and elevated oil prices pose risks to the inflation estimates. Apart from the oil price shock, a possible sub-par monsoon will also push inflation higher. Moreover, the Rupee has depreciated sharply against the dollar and has been the worst performing currency in the emerging markets. We believe these factors collectively would drive the regulator to reverse the rate cycle in the coming policy meetings.

In Q4 banks reported a fairly strong quarter with credit growth having picked up meaningfully and asset quality metrics remaining resilient. As per the latest RBI print, credit growth has held up well at ~16% as on mid-May'26. So far, asset quality has not been concerning, however, the impact of the prolonged war would start reflecting in late-Q2FY27 or H2FY27 especially evident in the more vulnerable segments such as MSMEs, Vehicle Financiers and oil-sensitive corporate segments. Many PSBs and private banks have continued to strengthen their Balance Sheets amidst rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Another challenge remains on the margin front, especially given intense competition for deposits and CoF remaining sticky or inching up marginally in the near term. We expect NIM pressures to persist in the near-term. However, in case of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings, we believe the larger private banks could be bigger beneficiaries given higher share of EBLR portfolios, while mid/smaller banks are likely to exhibit divergent trends. We would continue to remain selective in our stock selection approach and favour banks with diversified portfolios, a strong deposit franchise, adequate capitalisation and attractive valuations. Presently, we prefer ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and SBI amongst the larger banks and Federal Bank and Ujjivan SFB amongst the mid/smaller banks. Amongst NBFCs, we prefer Bajaj Finance".

Anil Godara, Founder and Managing Director, J Estates

The RBI decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25 % brings stability and predictability to the market. The sector is now being driven by stronger fundamentals, greater transparency, and a more discerning buyer base. With continued urbanization, infrastructure expansion and rising buyer confidence, the sector is well positioned to sustain its growth momentum. A steady interest rate environment supports buyer confidence and reinforces the sector's long-term growth outlook. 

Parveen Jain, President, NAREDCO

"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% is a positive development for both the economy and the real estate sector. At a time when global uncertainties continue to pose challenges, this move will help maintain market stability and reinforce consumer confidence.

With borrowing costs remaining steady, homebuyers will not face any additional burden on home loan repayments, which should support housing demand, particularly in the mid-income and affordable housing segments. The decision also provides greater predictability for developers, enabling better financial planning and smoother execution of projects.

As India continues to urbanise rapidly and the demand for quality housing grows, such policy measures play an important role in sustaining the momentum of the housing sector. We believe the RBI's balanced approach will help support economic growth while keeping inflation under control, creating a conducive environment for long-term development."

Loveena Kansal, EVP - Business Head, MegaCorp

The RBI's decision reflects a balanced and measured approach towards supporting growth while remaining vigilant on inflation. Policy stability at this juncture provides greater visibility for consumers, businesses, and lenders, enabling more confident financial and investment decisions.

As credit demand remains resilient across retail and MSME segments, a stable rate environment, coupled with continued focus on liquidity and financial sector development, will support sustainable credit growth and broader financial inclusion. The decision reinforces confidence in India's economic fundamentals and growth trajectory.

Dr Mohit Ramsinghani - President & Business Head at VTP Realty

"The RBI's status quo on the repo rate provides much-needed policy predictability at a time when the economy continues to demonstrate resilience. For the real estate sector, stability in borrowing costs supports homebuyer confidence and sustains demand momentum across housing segments. Equally important is the continued focus on maintaining adequate liquidity, which is critical for healthy credit flow, efficient project execution, and long-term sectoral growth. With infrastructure-led development and urbanization continuing to drive demand, a stable financial environment will further strengthen real estate's contribution to economic expansion."

Ashish Sharma, AVP Operations, Brahma Group, says, "The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% reflects a balanced and prudent approach amid evolving global and domestic economic conditions. For the real estate sector, policy stability is a positive outcome as it helps sustain homebuyer confidence and preserves the affordability gains achieved through the rate-easing cycle over the past year. Stable interest rates provide greater visibility for both developers and consumers, supporting long-term investment decisions. With housing demand remaining resilient across key markets, the continuation of a neutral stance is expected to reinforce market momentum and contribute to the sector's sustained growth trajectory."

Pratik Tibrewala (Senior Vice President & Head Corporate Finance at M3M India), said "The MPC's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% is indicative of a measured approach which will impact the real estate sector positively. For homebuyers, the stability in repo rate will translate to manageable home loan costs and conviction in buying decisions. For developers, the unchanged repo rate will reinforce disciplined execution of ongoing and pipeline projects. Investors are also set to benefit from a stable environment that consolidates real estate's positioning as a dependable, non volatile , long term asset. At a broader level, the stability in repo rate will act to keep the momentum of India's housing demand cycle intact, providing  the sector with the policy continuity it needs to sustain its sustain its ongoing demand-led expansion."

Preeti Rai - President sales and Strategy, Origen Realty, said"The RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% provides much-needed stability to the real estate sector, particularly amid an evolving global economic landscape. The move is expected to support buyer confidence by ensuring greater predictability in home loan interest rates, thereby sustaining end-user demand. A stable interest rate environment also enables developers to plan investments and project execution with greater certainty. As the housing market continues to witness healthy demand, this policy continuity will help maintain positive market sentiment and support the sector's steady growth trajectory."

Aman Sarin, Director & CEO, Anant Raj Limited

This is a welcome move by the RBI, especially given the ongoing crisis in West Asia, which continues to put pressure on input costs across sectors. In such an environment, stability in interest rates is important for maintaining overall confidence in the market. A steady rate scenario helps in better financial planning and provides clarity for both businesses and homebuyers. When borrowing costs are stable, it becomes easier to plan investments, manage cash flows, and stay focused on execution.

At the same time, current home loan rates are still at reasonable levels, which supports buying decisions. For many homebuyers, affordability today is not just about lower rates, but about certainty in monthly payments. That confidence plays a key role in converting intent into actual purchases. Overall, this decision creates a supportive environment where demand can continue to build gradually, while allowing the sector to navigate external challenges with greater resilience.

Yashank Wason, Managing Director, Royal Green Realty

RBI MPC's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% is a significant positive note for the real estate industry. The unchanged repo rate will significantly benefit both buyers and developers. For homebuyers, unchanged interest rates mean manageable EMIs which will improve the rate of potential purchasers. For developers this unchanged stance will accelerate the project launches and completion timeline.

Rishabh Periwal, Senior Vice President, Pioneer Urban Land & Infrastructure Ltd., says, "The RBI Monetary Policy Committee's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% provides much-needed stability to the real estate sector.  A steady rate environment ensures predictability in home loan costs, encouraging buyer confidence and sustaining housing demand. For developers, stable funding conditions and improved liquidity visibility enable better planning of project launches and execution timelines. Overall, this decision reinforces a growth-oriented environment and strengthens confidence across key real estate markets."

Pushpender Singh - Managing Director, JMS Group said, "The decision to keep the repo rate unchanged brings much-needed stability and predictability for the real estate sector. For homebuyers, it sustains affordability and supports sentiment in an already improving market. For developers, it allows better financial planning and project execution. However, timely liquidity support and faster approvals remain critical to maintain momentum. A balanced policy approach like this helps build long-term confidence and keeps the sector aligned with India's growth aspirations."

Sudeep Bhatt, Director Strategy, Whiteland Corporation says, "The RBI MPC has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%. The stance is significant for the real estate sector. It means stable home loans which directly boost housing demand, while improving liquidity for developers. The sector stands to benefit from the re - established buyer sentiment and a growth in investment appetite with EMIs and borrowing cost stabilising."

Sudeep Bhatt, Director Strategy, Whiteland Corporation says, "The RBI MPC has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%. The stance is significant for the real estate sector. It means stable home loans which directly boost housing demand, while improving liquidity for developers. The sector stands to benefit from the re - established buyer sentiment and a growth in investment appetite with EMIs and borrowing cost stabilising."

Abhay Mishra, CEO & President, Jindal Realty says, The decision to hold the repo rate steady offers a sense of continuity at a crucial time for the real estate sector. It reassures homebuyers by keeping borrowing costs stable and helps sustain demand momentum. For developers, it provides clarity for planning and execution. Going ahead, policy support and improved liquidity will be key to unlocking the sector's full potential and ensuring steady, inclusive growth across markets.

Rishabh Periwal, Senior Vice President, Pioneer Urban Land & Infrastructure Ltd ., says,

"The RBI Monetary Policy Committee's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% provides much-needed stability to the real estate sector.  A steady rate environment ensures predictability in home loan costs, encouraging buyer confidence and sustaining housing demand. For developers, stable funding conditions and improved liquidity visibility enable better planning of project launches and execution timelines. Overall, this decision reinforces a growth-oriented environment and strengthens confidence across key real estate markets."

Jitender Yadav, Director, Roots Developers, "The RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% is a catalyst for renewed enthusiasm in the real estate sector. Stability in borrowing costs will make home loans more accessible which will increase demand of home buyers. This will also help developers to speed up project launches and improve completion timelines, strengthening an environment of growth and confidence across key housing markets. We look forward to a pragmatic environment for the real estate industry"

Pushpender Singh - Managing Director, JMS Group "The decision to keep the repo rate unchanged brings much-needed stability and predictability for the real estate sector. For homebuyers, it sustains affordability and supports sentiment in an already improving market. For developers, it allows better financial planning and project execution. However, timely liquidity support and faster approvals remain critical to maintain momentum. A balanced policy approach like this helps build long-term confidence and keeps the sector aligned with India's growth aspirations."

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 ended Thursday on a subdued note, closing nearly flat at 23,416.55, up just 10.95 points (0.05%), as investors largely stayed on the sidelines ahead of the RBI's monetary policy announcement. While the index managed to defend the crucial 23,250-23,300 support zone, the rebound from intraday lows lacked strong follow-through buying. Strength in auto, capital goods and consumer durable stocks provided support, though weakness in IT and metal counters restricted upside momentum.

Global cues remained largely constructive. US markets witnessed a strong rally, with the Dow Jones surging 1.73% to a fresh record high as investors rotated into financials and healthcare stocks, while the S&P 500 gained 0.41%. The Nasdaq ended marginally lower amid profit-taking in select technology and semiconductor names. Asian markets traded mixed in early deals, reflecting a cautious stance ahead of key macro developments.

Meanwhile, Brent crude has eased from recent highs amid hopes of easing geopolitical tensions, offering some comfort on the inflation and current account front for India. GIFT Nifty is indicating a largely flat start, with market participants expected to closely monitor the RBI policy outcome and commentary for directional cues.

Technically, Nifty continues to trade within a well-defined range, and the near-term trend is likely to remain stock-specific until a decisive breakout emerges. A sustained move above 23,550 could trigger fresh buying interest and pave the way towards 23,700-23,800 levels. On the downside, holding above 23,300 remains crucial; a breach of this support may invite profit booking and drag the index towards the 23,150-23,100 zone. The RBI policy outcome and management commentary will be key catalysts in determining the market's next directional move.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

The overall crypto market remains under pressure as risk appetite weakens, ETF demand slows, and volatility expands across major assets. BTC has slipped below key short-term levels, ETF outflows have continued for 13 straight trading days, and professional investors cut spot Bitcoin ETF exposure by nearly 52,000 BTC in Q1.

For BTC, the $62,000-$61,200 zone is now critical. If this range breaks, a retest of $60,000 becomes likely. RSI near 25 shows oversold conditions, so a relief bounce is possible. But recovery strength will only improve if BTC reclaims $64,000 first, followed by $65,500. With volatility elevated, bounce attempts can remain unstable unless BTC breaks above resistance with conviction.

ETH is also weak. It is trading around $1,730 and remains below all major 4H EMAs. Immediate support is near $1,720-$1,700. A breakdown below this zone can open downside toward $1,650-$1,600. On the upside, ETH needs to reclaim $1,820-$1,840 for early recovery signs.

Also, AI-led equities are showing stronger relative market attention and momentum, while Bitcoin ETF outflows suggest weaker BTC demand. Until ETF demand stabilizes and key resistance levels are reclaimed, selling pressure may continue.

The Thesis

With RBI's policy decision at 10am IST the anchor and Brent easing to $97 on Iran ceasefire hopes, today is a barbell - rate-sensitive financials primed for a hold against export IT bid by rupee weakness. Overnight US flow rotated OUT of chips INTO Dow banks and retail, aligning squarely with our blend; India VIX collapsed 3.13% to 15.77, signalling the tape is pricing through geopolitical noise, not into it.

Where We're Concentrated

Concentration sits in three macro-fit places: NBFC and PSU infra-finance riding the rate-pause trade, export IT turning rupee weakness into a tailwind rather than a drag, and auto cyclicals with disciplined volume mix. The thesis breaks if RBI hikes - re-accelerating FII outflows - or if Iran talks stall and Brent re-tests $100, snapping the VIX easing.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

Sammaan Capital

NBFC bid into RBI 10am - consensus hold at 5.25% preserves carry trade; credit cycle still extending despite crude noise.

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles

EV mix accretive even as Brent near $97 squeezes ICE demand; sector rotation favours disciplined volume names this open.

HCL Technologies

IT major absorbs overnight Nasdaq tech rotation; rupee weakness from Iran risk premium is a tailwind for revenue conversion.

LTIMindtree

Mid-cap IT proxy - same FX tailwind; deal pipeline cushions against the US chip-led AI derating priced in overnight.

NBCC

PSU construction proxy - government capex tempo unbroken; infra spend insulated from Iran-war crude via budget allocation.

One Thing to Watch

RBI MPC at 10am IST. A hold at 5.25% per consensus reignites financial flows; any hike - even 25 bps - triggers cascading FII selling into a Brent-fragile open and a tape already four sessions stretched.

WazirX Market Desk

"Bitcoin's recent pullback to $62,351 appears to be driven more by institutional portfolio rebalancing. After a strong rally, it's natural for large investors to book profits and rotate capital into sectors they believe offer the next growth opportunity. We've seen this pattern play out across multiple market cycles, most recently in February this year.

At the same time, global events are reshaping where capital flows. Rising geopolitical tensions and the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure are putting energy security back in focus. Nuclear energy, once viewed as a niche sector, is increasingly becoming critical to powering the next generation of technology. Markets are ultimately a reflection of capital seeking efficiency, and right now we're witnessing that shift in real time. For long-term retail investors, these rotations are often part of the journey. However, the coming weeks might continue to be volatile for the crypto market, especially with major IPOs of SpaceX, and other AI companies coming up."

The Indian rupee has been one of the worst performers this year. Its value has eroded by over 2.3 per cent since April. Read full report here

At the close on Thursday, the total market cap of all 30 BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,62,03,291.