Vaibhav Laddha, CEO, Grip Invest

We expect the RBI to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% while adopting a more cautious tone amid rising crude prices and geopolitical uncertainty. For savers and investors, the significance of this policy lies less in the headline rate decision and more in the RBI's forward guidance on inflation and growth. A prolonged pause would help preserve the attractiveness of fixed deposits, while any upward revision in inflation expectations could influence bond yields and create opportunities across government bonds and other fixed-income instruments. As markets navigate an evolving macroeconomic environment, the central bank's commentary on future policy actions is likely to have a greater impact on fixed-income returns than the rate decision itself.

BigTrunk Communications, an independent integrated advertising agency known for its data-driven and creative approach, has secured the national digital and social media mandate for Velvex, the premium lubricant brand of Nandan Petrochem Limited. The partnership aims to strengthen Velvex's digital presence and social media strategy while driving meaningful engagement with its core and emerging audiences across India.

The primary objective of the mandate is to build long-term brand equity for Velvex in a competitive category by improving share of voice and translating product performance and technological superiority into clear, consistent brand narratives. BigTrunk will focus on creating a cohesive digital ecosystem that supports Velvex's broader business goals, including product adoption, market expansion, and consumer trust.

The mandate will focus on creating a stronger digital identity for Velvex through always-on content, platform-first storytelling and targeted amplification. BigTrunk's approach will centre on understanding regional nuances, consumer behaviour and category dynamics to ensure that communication remains relevant, timely and impactful across markets. In addition, the partnership will support Velvex's broader brand visibility initiatives, including its association with Lucknow Super Giants in the Indian Premier League (IPL), where Velvex is the official lubricant partner of the team for the upcoming season.

The Thesis

Models lean hardest into Indian IT services - four of ten conviction names - riding Tuesday's Nifty IT +4% rally on the TCS-Mistral AI partnership and Fed rate-cut hopes after S&P 500 cleared 7,600 for the first time. DIIs (+₹5,109 cr) outbid heavy FII selling (−₹3,911 cr), confirming the domestic bid behind the rotation.

Where We're Concentrated

Concentration sits in IT services (Coforge, Persistent, KPIT, Tech Mahindra), specialised tech (Kaynes EMS, KPIT auto-tech) and rate-sensitive credit (Sammaan NBFC). Old-economy diversifiers (UPL, Airtel, Crompton) hedge a one-theme view. Thesis breaks if Brent reclaims $97 on fresh Iran-US escalation - dollar strengthens, IT premium unwinds, FII outflows accelerate.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

Coforge

Mid-cap IT poised to lead the AI-implementation re-rating; Tuesday's Nifty IT +4% surge could mark the start, not the end.

Persistent Systems

Digital-engineering scale benefits from the TCS-Mistral AI partnership wave and Fed rate-cut hopes lifting Nasdaq tech.

KPIT Technologies

Auto-tech IT crossover; rides the Nifty IT rally and global OEM software-defined-vehicle capex amid softer dollar.

Sammaan Capital

NBFC leverage to softer rates if Fed-cut narrative holds; DII bid cushions FII outflows in rate-sensitive credit names.

Kaynes Technology

EMS conviction reflects China+1 manufacturing tilt; electronics capex stays resilient even with Brent stuck at $93-94.

One Thing to Watch

Brent through $97. A push back through $97 on any Iran-US flare-up flips the rate-cut narrative and reverses Tuesday's IT-led risk-on inside a single session.

Govind Sankaranarayanan Co-founder & COO, Ecofy

"The upcoming policy decision by the RBI is likely to reflect a balanced approach as it is going to continue managing inflation while supporting economic growth. The MPC is likely to remain cautious in its upcoming policy decision, closely tracking both domestic inflation trends and global economic signals before making any rate decisions.

For the green financing ecosystem, policy stability is critical. A predictable interest rate environment enables financial institutions to assess credit demand with greater clarity, channel capital into sustainable projects, and build confidence in climate-focused lending portfolios. Clear forward guidance that sustains liquidity and strengthens credit flow towards sectors such as green mobility and rooftop solar will serve as a strong catalyst for long-term growth."

CoinSwitch Markets Desk

BTC's move to the $66K area doesn't appear to be driven by any major crypto-specific shock. Strategy's BTC sale did dent market confidence, but it was not large enough to explain the full decline. A bigger factor is that investors are currently favoring traditional markets, particularly AI-linked stocks, which have been attracting stronger capital flows. At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs continue to see outflows, while heavy leverage in the market led to nearly $1.5B in liquidations since Monday. The key level to watch now is $65K-$66K. Holding this range could stabilize BTC, but losing it may bring $60K back into focus.

Alekh Yadav, Head of Investment Products at Sanctum Wealth

Global central banks over the last few years have looked to diversify their reserves away from US treasuries into gold. Chinese central bank has been one of the biggest buyers of gold as part of this diversification. We believe this theme is likely to continue going forward as well. Despite all the buying in last 2-3 years gold as a percentage of total reserve for Chinese central back is still much lower than its global peers.

WazirX market's desk

"Despite regulatory developments such as Clarity Act passing, Bitcoin hasn't been able to live up to the sentiment as major crypto holders witness stock prices decline.

India's domestic inflation remains a key concern besides global macro factors such as oil prices. 

Bitcoin has reached $66k levels triggering fears of a crypto winter as risk off sentiment continues to persist globally, with slowing ETF inflow data indicating curbing institutional demand."

Divya Kumar Gulati, Chairman, CLFMA of India says "The India-Oman Free Trade Agreement is a significant boost for India's agriculture, poultry, livestock, and marine export sectors. By providing duty-free access for key products such as shrimp, fish, eggs, and other food products, the agreement will make Indian exports more competitive in a strategically important Gulf market.

For the marine sector, the opportunity is particularly promising. India's seafood products are globally recognised for their quality, traceability, and compliance with international food safety standards, making them highly sought after in global markets. Oman imported marine products worth $35.3 million in 2025, while India's exports accounted for only about $10 million, indicating significant untapped potential. The immediate duty free access  to marine products provides Indian seafood exporters with a stronger platform to expand their presence in Oman and use it as a gateway to the wider Gulf region. This is expected to benefit exporters and coastal economies across Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat.

The agreement also reinforces India's position as a trusted food supplier to Oman. India already accounts for 17.8% of Oman's agricultural imports, over 94% of its bovine meat imports, and more than 98% of its fresh egg imports. With agricultural exports to Oman reaching nearly $553 million in 2025, duty-free access will create new opportunities for farmers, poultry producers, food processors, and agri-exporters while driving higher export earnings, rural employment, and value addition across the agricultural value chain. Overall, the FTA provides a timely opportunity to strengthen India's footprint in Gulf food markets, improve returns for producers, and further establish the country as a reliable global supplier of high-quality agricultural and marine products."

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

Bitcoin's fall below $70,000 and then toward the $66,000 zone has triggered panic across leveraged positions, with nearly $1.5 billion in liquidations since Monday adding fuel to the move.

On-chain data showing heavy loss realization by recent Bitcoin buyers, along with rising exchange inflows from retail and mid-sized investors, suggests that weaker hands are again moving coins to trading venues, increasing the risk of renewed distribution.

Also, recent market research has pointed to capital rotating toward U.S. equity themes such as AI, defense and energy, with high dispersion in equities concentrating liquidity in select market pockets and temporarily draining risk appetite from Bitcoin.

At the same time, crypto treasury flows have weakened sharply, with May inflows falling to $180 million, the lowest since October 2024, showing that institutional demand has also cooled.

Technically, Bitcoin remains weak below $68,500 and $70,000. A sustained break below $66,000 can open downside toward $65,000-$64,000. Ethereum has also lost key support after slipping below $1,950, with $1,840-$1,820 now the immediate support band. A reclaim of $1,950-$2,000 is needed to stabilise sentiment. Until then, volatility is likely to remain elevated, though a relief rebound is possible if forced selling cools and liquidity rotates back into crypto

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 staged a smart recovery on Tuesday, ending a four-session losing streak and gaining 101 points to close at 23,484. The index rebounded sharply from intraday lows near 23,229, supported by strong buying interest in frontline IT stocks. The Nifty IT index surged more than 4%, with heavyweights such as TCS, Infosys, and HCL Technologies leading the advance and helping offset weakness in select financial and pharmaceutical counters.

Global cues remain supportive. U.S. markets continued their record-setting momentum overnight, with the S&P 500 scaling fresh highs above 7,600 and the Dow Jones advancing over 200 points, driven by sustained optimism around AI-led technology spending. Asian markets also traded firm, with Japan's Nikkei touching a new record high, reflecting resilient risk appetite across global equities.

Domestic markets are likely to witness a stable start, although elevated crude oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions remain a key monitorable factor. Despite these concerns, the broader market structure continues to indicate resilience, with stock-specific buying and sectoral rotation providing support to the indices.

Technically, the undertone remains positive as long as Nifty holds above the 23,250 zone, which has emerged as an important near-term support area. On the upside, 23,600 remains the immediate hurdle; a sustained move above this level could trigger further momentum towards 23,750. While geopolitical developments and crude oil volatility may create intermittent bouts of caution, the overall trend suggests that declines are likely to attract buying interest, keeping the broader market bias constructive.

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Bitcoin slipped below the $66,500 level as selling pressure intensified, wiping out much of the recovery seen in recent weeks. Market sentiment weakened further after Mt. Gox-linked wallets moved 10,300 BTC, reviving concerns about potential distribution from the exchange's remaining holdings. At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs recorded their 11th consecutive day of outflows worth over $3 billion, marking the longest streak of withdrawals this year. 

If the current pressure persists, Bitcoin could retest the mid-$50,000 range in the coming weeks. However, a sustained move above $70,500 would signal renewed buying strength and improve the outlook. Long-term investors could use this volatility as an accumulation zone to make small, recurring investments until a reversal is confirmed. 

At the close on Tuesday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,62,67,788.