Lull prompts question: what are Taliban up to?

Kabul: Even as Afghanistan's unfolding presidential election has captured the capital's attention, two related questions have become increasingly urgent among security officials here: Where have the Taliban gone, and what are they waiting for?

In the weeks before the voting on April 5, the insurgents threatened mayhem and delivered, largely paralyzing Kabul in a rain of attacks. But the Taliban failed to deliver any attacks in Kabul on Election Day, and since then they have been mostly quiet, at least in the large cities where attacks garner the most publicity.

Some analysts speculate that the Taliban are biding their time until the runoff election in May or June, or are wary of a publicity backlash if they target civilians at all during the voting. Others wonder whether a leadership struggle and infighting have halted major operations. But there are more questions than answers on the issue, even for some commanders within the Taliban.

"We are waiting on the command of the leadership," said a Taliban commander who goes by the name Sangaryaar and operates along the border of Kandahar and Helmand provinces in the south. "For the moment we are on standby and have no reason to explain why."

Unraveling the Taliban's intent has immediate urgency not just for security officials, but for whatever new Afghan government takes shape after the election. One of the first issues facing the new administration will be determining how to engage the Taliban - whether with force or diplomacy, or more likely with both - as U.S. military forces carry out a withdrawal from Afghanistan by year's end.

The withdrawal itself has complicated the effort to pin down the Taliban's tactics, according to frustrated Western officials.

"It's the fundamental problem we have with fewer touch points in the field," said one Western military source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters. "We're dealing with lesser personal knowledge."

The source added: "There are a lot of data points, but they are all over the place - they don't point to one thing. And some of the things that are happening contradict each other."

Some officials suggest that the Taliban have been less effective because Afghan security forces simply have been doing a better job, but that largely flies in the face of evidence from more remote areas where the militants remain the dominant force.

Some analysts believe funding may play into the picture, as the war in Syria and a virulent insurgency in Iraq draw money once directed to insurgents here.

Rumors of a conflict within the Taliban have also driven speculation that the militants may be grappling with whether to continue their violent campaign or pursue a more peaceful path. Mullah Abdul Qayum Zakir, the hard-line leader of the group's military council, recently resigned, a development the local news media attributed to the power struggle unfolding within the ranks.

After reports emerged of his removal from office, the Taliban were quick to attribute his resignation to poor health, chiding the media for publishing "ambiguous interpretations for his resignation."

But the killings of nearly a half-dozen leaders, including the former Taliban minister of refugees, Mullah Abdul Raqeeb, as well as two shadow governors, have stirred the same speculation that there is dissent within the group's power structure.

Some security experts in Kabul believe the insurgents are waiting for a more opportune time to strike, perhaps during the runoff election, after having failed to disrupt the first round with any major attacks.

Members of the Taliban reached by telephone, however, reject the idea that the group was thwarted in its goals. Some of the commanders said they were under specific orders not to attack civilians during the election, in part because such violence would probably do more to damage their public image than to disrupt the election.

"The reason we did not stage major attacks across the country was that we wanted to avoid civilian casualties," said one Taliban commander in Kunar province. "Mass casualties could harm our cause and would have been against our principles and claims."

In hindsight, the Taliban's willingness to send gunmen after civilians at the Serena Hotel in Kabul, a luxurious spot favored by Westerners and Afghans alike, significantly backfired on them before the election. Among the nine people killed were an Afghan journalist, Sardar Ahmad; his wife; and two of their children. Local journalists were outraged by the attack and withheld Taliban news for 15 days in response.

That action, as much as anything, seems to have had an impact, at least in terms of perception.

"The media have played such an important role over the last month or so in downplaying even some serious insurgent attacks," said Gen. Abdul Wase Milad, an Afghan army brigade commander in Paktika province. "In a psychological war, the media fights 30 percent of the battle."

In a show of gratitude after the election, the Defense Ministry handed out certificates of appreciation to at least 40 Afghan journalists for ignoring the Taliban's efforts. The spokesman for the National Directorate of Security, the country's intelligence agency, said the news media had a bigger impact on Election Day than security operations did.

One Taliban commander agreed. "We carry out attacks on a daily basis," said the commander, Abdul Wahid, who operates in Kunar province. "The reason you do not hear about it is that the media is not reporting it."

In any case, few Afghan and Western officials expect the Taliban to hold off on major attacks for long. And several independent assessments of the insurgency predict that their activities will only increase in the coming years after the troop withdrawal.

In many provinces, the Taliban have spread themselves into remote areas and districts that the security forces cannot reach. With coalition forces largely sticking to their bases, the logic, those familiar with the tactics say, is for the Taliban to wait through the Western military pullout before moving to expand their territory without having to face coalition airstrikes.

Behind the confusion about the Taliban's tactics is a deeper question about the insurgents' overall strategy. At issue is whether the Taliban's leadership truly believes it can take over the national government again by military force, or whether it is fighting more to achieve better leverage in a negotiated peace deal with the administration in Kabul - and, likely, for more recognition abroad.

"They want to be recognized as a legitimate party: Why else do they call themselves the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and not the Taliban movement?" said Thomas Ruttig, a researcher with the Afghan Analysts Network. "They want power back, and then international recognition."

Both leading presidential candidates, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, have vowed to keep the pressure on the Taliban while pursuing channels for a peace deal that for years has eluded the current Afghan president, Hamid Karzai.

Less clear is how the Taliban will respond to the new president. While the militants have long derided Karzai as a puppet of the West, they have been studiously silent about the two leading candidates.

With the lack of clarity and a persistent threat of terrorism, some fear that the violence will continue to justify a heavy focus on the military, to the detriment of other badly needed changes in the economy and in government.

"As long as a new Afghan government fights a terrorism problem, it's a good excuse for not doing the reforms necessary in the Afghan system, whether political or economic," Ruttig said. "And the international community might continue funding them, even if on a lower level."