Eight years after the Philippine government declared victory over the so-called Islamic State, or ISIS, the terrorist threat it once posed in Southeast Asia has not disappeared. It has instead shrunk, fractured and adapted -- no longer capable of holding territory as it briefly did in 2017, but still able to inspire violence, mobilise recruits and maintain international connections. On Tuesday, that lingering threat came under renewed scrutiny after Australian authorities disclosed that the suspects in the Bondi Beach massacre in Sydney were motivated by ISIS ideology and had travelled to the Philippines shortly before the attack.
Philippine authorities confirmed that the two men -- Sajid Akram, an Indian national, and his son Naveed Akram, an Australian citizen -- spent nearly a month in the country.
According to the Philippine Bureau of Immigration, the two men arrived together from Sydney on November 1 and departed on November 28, returning to Australia via Manila. Dana Sandoval, a spokesperson for the bureau, quoted by the New York Times, said the pair travelled to Davao City, over 1,400 km south of capital Manila, during their stay. Officials have not disclosed where else they went or whom they met, and have said it is yet to be known what activities they undertook during the 28-day trip.
The Davao trip is concerning. But how did they get there?
Davao is the largest city on the southern island of Mindanao. While it is better known internationally as the political stronghold of former president Rodrigo Duterte, it also lies within a region shaped by decades of Muslim insurgency and separatist conflict. The city has repeatedly surfaced in investigations into militant movements, smuggling routes and foreign fighter transit networks.
According to news agency Reuters, the two men arrived in the Philippines on November 1, flying with Philippine Airlines and landing in Davao City. The city lies roughly 225 kilometres by road from Maguindanao and about 195 kilometres from Lanao del Sur -- two provinces long regarded by Philippine security agencies as strongholds for the so-called Islamic State-linked factions and other armed groups, including Abu Sayyaf.
The Reuters report states that the pair travelled together on the same Philippine Airlines route from Sydney to Manila and onward to Davao. They departed on November 28, returning to Sydney via the same route, about two weeks before the Bondi Beach attack.
Philippines And The Shadow Of Marawi
Mindanao, the Philippines' second-largest island, is home to a Muslim minority that has waged an armed struggle against the central government for more than four decades. That conflict has killed more than 1,20,000 people and displaced millions. While Muslims make up about 11 per cent of the Philippine population nationally, they account for roughly 23 per cent of Mindanao's residents.
The region's recent history was irrevocably altered in May 2017, when militants aligned with ISIS seized Marawi City, a lakeside commercial hub in Lanao del Sur province. For five months, fighters from the Maute Group, Abu Sayyaf and allied factions held large parts of the city, prompting the largest urban military operation in the Philippines since the Second World War.
More than 1,000 people were killed, over 2,00,000 displaced, and 24 districts reduced to rubble before government forces regained control.
ISIS propagandists likened the capture of Marawi to the fall of Mosul in Iraq, presenting it as proof that the group's caliphate project could extend far beyond the Middle East. While the Philippine military eventually killed key leaders -- including Isnilon Hapilon and the Maute brothers, Omar and Abdullah -- hundreds of fighters melted back into rural areas, forming smaller cells.
Experts say that despite the territorial defeat of ISIS-linked groups in Mindanao, the ideological infrastructure that sustained them has not been fully dismantled. That rhetorical shift, analysts argue, has allowed extremist groups to maintain relevance even as their capabilities have diminished.
What Groups Are Active
Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG): Once notorious for kidnappings, bombings and beheadings, has effectively been dismantled, with most of its fighters killed or having surrendered, according to the Philippine Army.
Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters: A breakaway faction from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, continues to operate in parts of Maguindanao but has been reduced by military raids and defections.
The Maute Group: Also known as Daulah Islamiyah, which aligned itself with the so-called Islamic State, has been cut down to what officials describe as a "manageable number" of fugitives.
ISIS-East Asia: A loose coalition of groups that have pledged allegiance to the so-called Islamic State, is believed to have between 300 and 500 fighters, mostly Filipinos with some foreign members.
Alongside these groups, the long-running communist insurgency led by the Communist Party of the Philippines and its armed wing, the New People's Army, persists in remote areas
Online Extremism, Social Media Recruitment
While armed militancy in Mindanao predates ISIS by decades, the rise of online violent extremism added a new dimension to the conflict. After ISIS declared a caliphate in Iraq and Syria in 2014, several Mindanao-based groups began posting images and videos online pledging allegiance to the group's leader.
In the months leading up to the Marawi siege, extremists used social media platforms -- particularly Facebook and encrypted messaging services -- to recruit fighters, spread propaganda and coordinate activities. During the battle itself, ISIS-linked media outlets amplified footage from Marawi, connecting local militants to global extremist networks.
Extremist messaging is also highly localised, often delivered in Moro languages such as Maranao, Maguindanaoan and Tausug, and tied to grievances at the municipal or provincial level. Thanks to the crackdown on militancy, the once-ubiquitous circulation of highly polished ISIS propaganda has declined since 2017.
The Philippines' geography -- an archipelago of more than 7,000 islands -- has long complicated border control. Militant groups have exploited people-smuggling routes linking Mindanao to Malaysia and Indonesia to move fighters, weapons and funds.
Security assessments have identified Sabah in Malaysian Borneo and Manado in Indonesia's North Sulawesi province as key transit points. From Manado, foreign terrorist fighters have travelled through the Sangihe or Talaud islands before arriving in General Santos City or Davao City. From there, they have moved overland to Marawi and other conflict zones.
Davao's appearance in the travel history of the Sydney suspects has therefore drawn particular attention from counterterrorism officials, even as they caution against premature conclusions. There is no public evidence that the two men met militants or received training during their visit, but analysts note that such travel patterns are consistent with known extremist transit routes.
