Pakistan's "War" Threat To India Over Indus Water Amid Monsoon Blues

After Pakistan's civilian government, its military establishment has also vowed to take "all necessary measures" to ensure what it called the country's "rightful share" of water under the Indus Water Treaty. The 1960 vintage water-sharing treaty was put in "abeyance" by India as one of the punitive measures against Pakistan after last year's Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people. 

The treaty has governed the distribution and use of the Indus River and its tributaries between the two nuclear-powered neighbours since then.

What Pak Military Said

The Pakistani Army, in a statement, said that a gathering of its top military brass under Chief of Defence Forces, Field Marshal Asim Munir, "expressed resolute commitment to undertake all measures necessary to ensure availability of Pakistan's rightful share of water as per the directives of the government and inspirations of the people of Pakistan." 

The 276th Corps Commanders' Conference reaffirmed the guidance given in the National Security Committee (NSC) directive of April 24, 2025, the army said.

What Are Pak's NSC Guidelines

Last year's Pakistan NSC meeting decided to treat any act of stopping or diverting water as "an act of war". The forum reviewed the prevailing security environment, expressing satisfaction over the operational preparedness, professionalism, and combat readiness of the Pakistan Armed Forces.

It expressed "serious concerns over the continued use of territory under the control of the Afghan Taliban regime" by militant groups to carry out attacks inside Pakistan.

"Pakistan has an unequivocal right to defend its people from terrorism, and the Armed Forces shall continue intelligence-based operations against terrorism emanating from Afghan Taliban-controlled territory under the ambit of Operation Ghazab-lil-Haq," it said.

The forum also reaffirmed Pakistan's "unyielding diplomatic, political and moral support" to the Kashmiris. Field Marshal Munir called upon the commanders to maintain the highest standards of vigilance, operational readiness and professional excellence, emphasising integrated responses to conventional, sub-conventional and hybrid threats.

Bilawal Bhutto's Threat

Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari also warned that Pakistan was prepared to fight "on all fronts" over the Indus waters. In a video going viral on social media from a public gathering, Bhutto-Zardari can be heard accusing India of attempting to "weaponise" the waters of the Indus River and said Islamabad would not compromise on its rights.

"There will be no compromise on the Indus Water Treaty. If we have to fight a war with India, we will fight," he said.

NDTV could not independently verify when the rally took place. 

India's Stand

The threats came after last week, when New Delhi said that the Indus Waters Treaty continues to remain in abeyance because of Pakistan's support for cross-border terrorism.

"Pakistan must credibly and irrevocably abjure its support for cross-border terrorism," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said.

India's message since Pahalgam has been consistent: treaties cannot function in isolation from ground realities. And until Pakistan addresses what New Delhi calls "abnormal hostility," even the world's most cited water-sharing agreement will remain suspended in more ways than one.

Pakistan's Dependence On Indus Waters

Brokered by the World Bank and signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty regulates the distribution of water from the Indus River system. Under it, India controls the eastern rivers, Ravi, Sutlej and Beas, while Pakistan receives the waters of the western rivers -- the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. Under the treaty, India, which is on the higher basin, also used to share flood warnings with Pakistan during the monsoon season through the Indus Water Commissioners.

Now, with the treaty being in abeyance, New Delhi is no longer obliged to share the information anymore. Moreover, New Delhi is also pushing ahead with several hydroelectric projects in the Indus basin, such as Sawalkote, Ratle, Bursar, Pakal Dul, Kwar, Kiru, and Kirthai I and II.

Nearly 80-90 per cent of Pakistan's agriculture depends on the Indus River system. Its water storage capacity barely covers a month of flow. Its major reservoirs -- Tarbela and Mangla -- are reportedly near dead storage.

What was once a technical treaty arrangement has now become a strategic pressure point. Therefore, Islamabad's reaction to India's action has been frantic. Over the past year, Pakistan has summoned envoys, rushed delegations to world capitals, written to the United Nations, initiated several legal actions and held multiple international conferences -- all centred on one narrative that India has targeted its most sensitive vulnerability.