- The war in Iran is expected to continue with no clear US exit strategy in place, Fareed Zakaria said
- Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, risking a global oil crisis
- US allies in Europe and the Middle East are yet to support Donald Trump over opening the Strait
The war in Iran will continue, and with US President Donald Trump apparently not looking for an exit, an oil crisis is likely, foreign policy analyst Fareed Zakaria has indicated. Speaking to NDTV Editor-in-Chief and CEO Rahul Kanwal in an exclusive interview, he said it will be "very difficult to open Strait of Hormuz without Iran's acceptance" and the Iranians "will continue to play hardball".
While US President Donald Trump has sought the help of allies in European Union and Arab allies to help open the Strait -- the conduit for more than one-fifth of global oil supply -- the allies are yet to get on board.
"If there's no response or if it's a negative response, I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO," the US President has said.
Zakaria said while Donald Trump might try to find a way to "declare victory and wind this conflict down" Iran might continue now that other forces have come to play.
Read: "Military Dictatorship, Clerical Facade": Fareed Zakaria On Iranian Politics
"If Iran continues, even with these limited incursions, continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, the war doesn't end, the crisis doesn't end. The problems that have been created for large parts of the world, especially countries like India, don't end. Israel may not end the war," he said.
But more importantly, Trump is going into a "very familiar escalation spiral where, when great powers particularly feel that their prestige is now at stake, they escalate because they don't want to seem to have lost face".
"So far, what he is trying to do is to get other countries involved, which would, of course, only widen the conflict," he added.
Netanyahu and Iran
Asked how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is viewing this escalation trap, Zakaria said for the Israelis, the math is different.
"Netanyahu is trying to destroy Iran as a state. From his point of view, all the damage they do, it destroys all the offensive capabilities... he is essentially taking Iran off the board as an adversary of Israel," he said.
This applies to Iran's military factories, military-industrial complex that will take years to rebuild. And if that creates chaos, it is better for Israel, since "chaos means they are no longer a threat".
"The talent that Bibi Netanyahu had was that he persuaded the United States - he persuaded Donald Trump - that the interests of the United States and the interests of Israel are the same, but in fact they are not," he said.
The US, he said, needs commerce, stability, integration, free flow of oil and other goods and its allies in the region -- from the UAE to Saudi Arabia to Qatar -- need the same.
"For the Israelis, that's much less important. They are simply trying to take Iran and Hezbollah off the board and they have succeeded in that," he added.
