India's Indus Waters Treaty Suspension Puts Pakistan At 'Acute Risk' Of Scarcity: Report

Pakistan, heavily reliant on the waters of the Indus basin, faces an acute risk of scarcity after India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) earlier this year, according to the Ecological Threat Report 2025.

The report, published by the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace, stated that the suspension gives India the ability to control the westward flow of the Indus and its tributaries into Pakistan.

India suspended the treaty as retaliation for the barbaric Pahalgam attack in April this year. 

This development marks a major setback for Pakistan, whose agriculture depends 80% on the Indus River system. 

“Even small disruptions at critical moments could hurt Pakistani agriculture since Pakistan lacks sufficient storage to buffer variations. Pakistan's own dam capacity can hold only about 30 days of Indus flow; any prolonged cut would be disastrous if not managed,” said the report.

Highlighting the importance of the Indus water issue for Pakistan, the report added, “Interruption of Indus flows threatens its food security directly, and thus its national survival. Indeed, about 80 per cent of Pakistan's irrigated agriculture depends on the Indus basin rivers.”

It added, “For Pakistan, the danger is acute. If India were truly to cut off or significantly reduce Indus flows, Pakistan's densely populated plains would face severe water shortages, especially in winter and dry seasons.”

While the report noted that India's current infrastructure limits its ability to halt river flows, it cautioned that even small interruptions can have disastrous short-term consequences for Pakistan's farming sector.

In May, India carried out “reservoir flushing” operations at the Salal and Baglihar dams on the Chenab River without notifying Pakistan. The process, used to clear silt by draining reservoirs, had been restricted under the treaty due to the risk of sudden downstream changes.

The effects were immediate. Stretches of the Chenab River in Pakistan's Punjab reportedly ran dry for several days after India shut the dam gates, only for sediment-filled torrents to surge downstream once they were reopened.

A Treaty That Endured Wars

Signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) long stood as a rare success in India-Pakistan cooperation. It divided the basin's six rivers, giving India control of the eastern (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), and Pakistan the western (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), and survived three wars between the neighbours.

From Cooperation To Confrontation

The treaty's stability began to erode in the 2000s as political tensions deepened. India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sought to fully utilise its share of eastern river waters. 

Following the Pahalgam terror attack in April 2025, India suspended the IWT, prompting Islamabad to warn that “any diversion of Pakistan's water is to be treated as an act of war.”

In May 2025, Operation Sindoor raised fears of a wider conflict. A month later, Home Minister Amit Shah said the treaty would remain suspended permanently.